Global Warming, Climate Change, Energy Security

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University of Tokyo Tokyo 16th June 2008
Global Warming, Climate Change, Energy
Security The Hard Choices facing us
Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal 5th October
2007
N.K. Tovey (???) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv
?.?.???? ?.?., ?-?
??????????? ???? Energy Science Director CRed
Project HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation
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Global Warming, Climate Change, Energy
SecurityThe Hard Choices facing us

• The twin critical issues facing us
• Global Warming / Climate change
• need to reduce carbon emissions
• Energy Security
• recent high oil prices are a foretaste of what
  may happen
• demand is outstripping supply
• Are there conflicts between these issues?

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Evidence of Climate Change
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Is Global Warming man made?

• Predictions include
• Greenhouse Gas emissions
• Sulphates and ozone
• Solar and volcanic activity

Prediction Anthropogenic only Not a good match
between 1920 and 1970
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Source Hadley Centre, The Met.Office
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Is Global Warming man made?

• Predictions include
• Greenhouse Gas emissions
• Sulphates and ozone
• Solar and volcanic activity

Prediction Natural only good match until 1960
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Source Hadley Centre, The Met.Office
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Is Global Warming man made?

• Predictions include
• Greenhouse Gas emissions
• Sulphates and ozone
• Solar and volcanic activity

Prediction Natural and Anthropogenic Generally a
good match
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Source Hadley Centre, The Met.Office
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Change in precipitation in UK 1961-2001
Source Tim Osborne, CRU
Total winter precipitation
Total summer precipitation
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Increasing Occurrence of Drought
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Increasing Occurrence of Flood
Source Tim Osborne, CRU
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Climate ChangeArctic meltdown 1979 - 2003

• Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region
• Nasa satellite imagery

• 20 reduction in 24 years

Source Nasa http//www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/n
ews/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html
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Oil and Gas on Earth are running out
Gas and Oil Production - ASPO projection 2004
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Billion barrels of oil a year
1930 1950 1970 1990
2010 2030 2050
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Comparison of Discoveries and Demand
We need to consider alternatives now
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UK Gas Production and Demand
Import Gap
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UK Nuclear Capapcity
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Our Choices They are difficult Energy Security
There is a looming capacity shortfall Even with a
full deployment of renewables. A 10 reduction in
demand per house will see a rise of 7 in total
demand - Increased population decreased
household size

• Opted Out Coal Stations can only run for 20 000
  hours more and must close by 2015
• New Nuclear assumes completing 1 new nuclear
  station each year beyond 2018
• New Coal assumes completing 1 new coal station
  each year beyond 2018

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What is the magnitude of the CO2 problem?
How do UK and Japan compare with other
countries? Why do some countries emit more CO2
than others?
Per capita Carbon Emissions
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On average each person in UK and also Japan
causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.
How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks
like?
5 hot air balloons per person per year. In the
developing world, the average is under 1 balloon
per person
"Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did
nothing because he thought he could do only a
little." Edmund Burke (1727 1797)
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Carbon Emissions and GDP
USA
Netherlands
Russia
UK
Germany
Japan
Greece
Italy
Denmark
Norway
Libya
Switzerland
France
Sweden
China
Turkey
India
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Carbon Emissions and Electricity
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r
Electricity Generation i n selected Countries
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Historic and Future Demand for Electricity in UK
Business as usual
Energy Efficient Future ?
Number of households will rise by 17.5 by 2025
and consumption per household must fall by this
amount just to remain static
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Electricity Options for the Future for UK the
conflicts
Energy Efficiency consumption capped at 420
TWh by 2010 But 68 growth in gas demand
(compared to 2002) Business as Usual 257
increase in gas consumption ( compared to 2002)
The Gas Scenario Assumes all new non-renewable
generation is from gas. Replacements for ageing
plant Additions to deal with demand
changes Assumes 10.4 renewables by 2010
25 renewables by 2025
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Alternative Electricity Options for the Future

• 25 Renewables by 2025
• 20000 MW Wind
• 16000 MW Other Renewables inc. Tidal, hydro,
  biomass etc.

Energy Efficiency Scenario Other Options Some
New Nuclear needed by 2025 if CO2 levels are to
fall significantly and excessive gas demand is to
be avoided
Business as Usual Scenario New Nuclear is
required even to reduce back to 1990 levels
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• What prospects are there for the future?
• Reduce existing fossil fuel energy use by
• Awareness Raising
• Good Management
• Improvements in energy efficiency technology
• Renewable Energy
• Offsets

Good Management and improvements in Energy
Efficiency in buildings will be covered in
Lecture this evening at 1800 at British Council
1-2, Kagurazaka, Shinjuku-ku near Lidabashi
Metro Station
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ZICER Building
Low Energy Building of the Year Award 2005
awarded by the Carbon Trust.

• Good Energy Management reduced consumption
  in a Low Energy Building by a further 57
• Incorporates 34 kW of Solar Panels on top floor

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A Pathway to a Low Carbon Future In our
homes???????

• ??????
• Awareness

2. ???????? Technical Measures
3. ??????? Renewable Energy
4. ????? Offsetting
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A Pathway to a Low Carbon Future for business

• Awareness

• Management

• Offsetting
• Green Tariffs

• Renewable Energy

• Technical Measures

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Comparison of Carbon Emissions from Heating Hot
Water
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Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project
Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004
Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh
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Performance of a Solar Thermal System
Data collect 9th December 2006 30th October 2007
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Solar Electricity
It is still very expensive
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Options for Renewable Electricity Generation

• On shore wind
• 1.5 MW machine will provide energy for 1000 homes
  in UK
• New machines are twice as big

66 m
66 m
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Options for Renewable Electricity Generation
Off shore wind By mid August, 2008 UK will have
450 MW of offshore wind the highest of any
country.
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Performance of UK Wind Farms in East Anglia
Scroby Sands Wind Farm has 30 turbines and can
provide sufficient electricity for 35 000 houses
on average.
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Hydroelectricity
Some countries have a high proportion of hydro
electricity - Norway 98.9 UK
1.9 Japan 7.8
Possible opportunities for Micro Hydro. 5.5 kW
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Options for Renewable Electricity Generation -
Biomass

• Transport Fuels
• Biodiesel?
• Bioethanol?
• Compressed gas from
• methane from waste.

But Land Area required is very large - 10000 sq
km would be needed to generated justr 5 of UK
electricity needs.
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Options for Renewable Electricity Generation -
Wave
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Options for Renewable Electricity Generation -
Tidal
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Options for Renewable Electricity Generation -
Tidal
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Options for Renewable Electricity Generation
Tidal Barrages
Output 78 000 GWh per annum Sufficient for 13500
houses in Orkney Save 40000 tonnes of CO2
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Involve the local Community

• The residents on the island of Burray (Orkney)
  campaigned for a wind turbine.
• On average they are more than self-sufficient in
  electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter
  of electricity.
• Many of the Islanders bought shares in the
  project and are now reaping the reward.
• Orkney is hoping to be a zero net emitter of
  carbon dioxide by 2015.
• Even better things are happening on the Island of
  Westray.

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Involve the local Community
Even better things are happening on the Island of
Westray.
The Parish Kirk, and Community Centre are heated
by heat Pumps partly powered by Wind Turbines
Waste cooking oil from other islands is processed
into biodiesel for farm and other
vehicles. Ethanol used in process is obtained
from fermentation of harvested sea weed
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Raising Awareness

• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a
  washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will
  cost over 100 a year just for this appliance
  alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.

• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume
  of 1 party balloon.

• Standby on electrical appliances
• 60 kWh a year - 3000 balloons
• at a cost of over 6 per year

• Filling up with petrol (50 for a full tank
  40 litres)
• --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5 of one hot
  air balloon)

How far does one have to drive in a small family
car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much
carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for
1 hour in Northern Japan or UK?
2.6 km
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In the UK the Carbon Reduction Programme
is aiming to push the agenda towards
the 60 cut needed to combat Climate Change
CRed
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Elsewhere in UK
Overseas
In the Future
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CRed already has a WEBSITE in China
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Sharing the Expertise of the University
Worlds First MBA in Strategic Carbon
Management First cohort January 2008 A
partnership between The Norwich Business School
and the 5 school of Environmental Sciences
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Conclusions

• Climate Change and Energy Security are important
  issues
• Effective strategies are needed to explore
  integrated approaches involving
• Awareness raising
• Improvement s in Management
• Improvements in Energy Efficiency
• Deployment of Renewable Energy
• Finally, when all other things have been
  achieved, Offsetting
• Offsetting should not be used as the first choice.

"If you do not change direction, you may end up
where you are heading."
Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist
philosopher
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Global Warming, Climate Change, Energy
Security The Hard Choices facing us
WEBSITE cred-uk.org/
Visit this WEB site. Follow Academic Links
this presentation will appear from 19th June
Keith Tovey (???) k.tovey_at_uea.ac.uk
This evening at 1800 at British Council 1-2,
Kagurazaka, Shinjuku-ku near Lidabashi Metro
Station Low Carbon Strategies for Business The
Experience of the University of East Anglia