Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE

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Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE Energy
Science Director Low Carbon Innovation
Centre School of Environmental Sciences,
University of East Anglia
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Hard Choice Ahead

• Evidence of Climate Change
• Energy Options for the Future
• Hard Choices Ahead
• Future carbon dioxide emissions
• Some conservation issues
• A way forward
• Conclusions

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Future Global Warming Rates
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Climate ChangeArctic meltdown 1979 - 2003

• Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region
• Nasa satellite imagery

• 20 reduction in 24 years

Source Nasa http//www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/n
ews/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html
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Difficult Choices Ahead
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 -
Non-Renewable Methods - figures taken from
Energy Review 2002
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 -
Renewable
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 -
Renewable

• Transport Fuels
• Biodiesel?
• Bioethanol?

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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 -
Renewable
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Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project
Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004
Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh
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Our Choices They are difficult

• Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e
  onshore/offshore wind and biomass.
  Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for
  next 20 years.
• If our answer is NO
• Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power
• Are we happy on this and the
  other attendant risks?

• If our answer is NO
• Do we want to return to using coal?
• then carbon dioxide emissions will rise
  significantly
• unless we can develop carbon sequestration
  within 10 years which is unlikely

If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave
things are they are and see continued
exploitation of gas for both heating and
electricity generation? gtgtgtgtgtgt
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Our Choices They are difficult

• If our answer is YES
• By 2020
• we will be dependent on around 70 of our
  heating and electricity from GAS
• imported from countries like Russia, Iran,
  Iraq, Libya, Algeria
• Are we happy with this prospect? gtgtgtgtgtgt

If not We need even more substantial cuts in
energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our
future to effects of Global Warming? - the
North Norfolk Coal Field?
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on
renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making
will lead us down the GAS option route and all
the attendant Security issues that raises.
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Historic and Future Demand for Electricity
Number of households will rise by 17.5 by 2025
and consumption per household must fall by this
amount just to remain static
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Electricity Options for the Future

• Low Growth Scenario
• Capped at 420 TWh
• 33 CO2 reduction (Gas) cf 1990
• 62 CO2 reduction (Nuclear) cf 1990
• 68 increase in gas consumption
• ( Gas Scenario) cf 2002
• Mix option 6 new nuclear plant by 2025
• Mix option 11 increase in gas
• consumption (cf 2002)

• High Growth Scenario
• Business as Usual
• 0.3 CO2 reduction (Gas) cf 1990
• 54 CO2 reduction (Nuclear) cf 1990
• 257 increase in gas consumption
• ( Gas Scenario) cf 2002

• 25 Renewables by 2025
• 20000 MW Wind
• 16000 MW Other Renewables inc. Tidal, hydro,
  biomass etc.

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Government Response

• Energy White Paper aspiration for 60 cut in
  CO2 emissions by 2050
• Will require unprecedented partnership activity
  in local communities to ensure on track by 2020s
• ( but no indication of how this will be
  undertaken)

There will be much more local generation, in
part from medium to small local/community power
plant, fuelled by locally grown biomass, from
locally generated waste, and from local wind
sources. These will feed local distributed
networks, which can sell excess capacity into the
grid. - Energy White Paper February 2003
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On average each person in UK causes the emission
of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.
How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks
like?
5 hot air balloons per person per year.
"Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did
nothing because he thought he could do only a
little." Edmund Burke (1727 1797)
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Some facts
A mobile phone charger left on even when not
charging up to 20 kg CO2 a year Standby on
television gt 60 kg per year Filling up with
petrol (40 litres 37 for a full tank)
--------- 90 kg of CO2 (5 of one
balloon) How far does one have to drive in a
small family car (e.g. 1300 cc Toyota Corolla) to
emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old
persons room for 1 hour? 1.6 miles
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Involve the local Community

• Many residents on island of Burray (Orkney)
  compaigned for a wind turbine.
• On average they are fully self-sufficient in
  electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter
  of electricity

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Conclusions

• Global Warming will affect us all - in next few
  decades
• Need to move towards energy conservation and
  LOCAL generation of energy
• It is as much about the individuals response
  to use of energy as any technical measures the
  Government may take.
• Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real
  alternatives for renewable generation in next 5
  10 years.
• Otherwise Nuclear? Can we avoid
  new Nuclear?
• Yes
• but only if expansion of Renewables is at a
  greater rate than even Government Targets
• and everyone embraces Energy Conservation
• Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming
  Energy Security issues will shortly start to
  affect us.
• Inaction over making difficult decisions now will
  make Energy Insecurity more likely in future.

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Conclusions
Need to act now otherwise we might have to
make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat
an old persons room
"If you do not change direction, you may end up
where you are heading."
Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist
philosopher