Hard Choices Ahead

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Climate Change Seminar
13th February 2007
Keith Tovey (???) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv
Hard Choices Ahead
Energy Science Director HSBC
Director of Low Carbon Innovation School of
Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
CRed
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(No Transcript)
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Is Global Warming man made?
Prediction Natural only good match until 1960
Prediction Anthropogenic only Not a good match
between 1920 and 1970

• Predictions include
• Greenhouse Gas emissions
• Sulphates and ozone
• Solar and volcanic activity

Prediction Natural and Anthropogenic Generally a
good match
Source Hadley Centre, The Met.Office
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Climate ChangeArctic meltdown 1979 - 2003

• Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region
• Nasa satellite imagery

• 20 reduction in 24 years

Source Nasa http//www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/n
ews/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html
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Consequence of 1m rise
Consequence of 6m rise
(Source Prof. Bill McGuire, University College
London)
Norwich City would be playing water polo!
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 -
Non-Renewable Methods
Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is
completed each year after 2017.
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 -
Renewable
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 -
Renewable
Area required to supply 5 of UK electricity
needs 300 sq km But energy needed to make PV
takes up to 8 years to pay back in UK.
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 -
Renewable

• Transport Fuels
• Biodiesel?
• Bioethanol?
• Compressed gas from
• methane from waste.

But Land Area required is very large - the area
of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to
generated just over 5 of UK electricity needs.
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Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 -
Renewable
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Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project
Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004
Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh
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Our Choices They are difficult Energy Security
There is a looming capacity shortfall Even with a
full deployment of renewables. A 10-15 reduction
in demand per house will see a rise of 7 in
total demand

• Opted Out Coal Stations can only run for 20 000
  hours more and must close by 2015
• New Nuclear assumes completing 1 new nuclear
  station each year beyond 2016
• New Coal assumes completing 1 new coal station
  each year beyond 2016

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Our Choices They are difficult

• Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e
  onshore/offshore wind and biomass.
  Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for
  next 20 years.
• If our answer is NO
• Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power
• Are we happy with this and the
  other attendant risks?

• If our answer is NO
• Do we want to return to using coal?
• then carbon dioxide emissions will rise
  significantly
• unless we can develop carbon sequestration and
  apply it to ALL our
• COAL fired power stations within 10
  years - unlikely.

If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave
things are they are and see continued
exploitation of gas for both heating and
electricity generation? gtgtgtgtgtgt
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Our Choices They are difficult

• If our answer is YES
• By 2020
• we will be dependent on around 70 of our
  heating and electricity from GAS
• imported from countries like Russia, Iran,
  Iraq, Libya, Algeria
• Are we happy with this prospect? gtgtgtgtgtgt

If not We need even more substantial cuts in
energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our
future to effects of Global Warming by using
coal? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? Aylsham
Colliery, North Walsham Pit?
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on
renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making
will lead us down the GAS option route and all
the attendant Security issues that raises.
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Historic and Future Demand for Electricity
Business as usual
Energy Efficient Future ?
Number of households will rise by 17.5 by 2025
and consumption per household must fall by this
amount just to remain static
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Electricity Options for the Future
Energy Efficiency consumption capped at 420
TWh by 2010 But 68 growth in gas demand
(compared to 2002) Business as Usual 257
increase in gas consumption ( compared to 2002)
The Gas Scenario Assumes all new non-renewable
generation is from gas. Replacements for ageing
plant Additions to deal with demand
changes Assumes 10.4 renewables by 2010
25 renewables by 2025
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Alternative Electricity Options for the Future

• 25 Renewables by 2025
• 20000 MW Wind
• 16000 MW Other Renewables inc. Tidal, hydro,
  biomass etc.

Energy Efficiency Scenario Other Options Some
New Nuclear needed by 2025 if CO2 levels are to
fall significantly and excessive gas demand is to
be avoided
Business as Usual Scenario New Nuclear is
required even to reduce back to 1990 levels
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On average each person in UK causes the emission
of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.
5 hot air balloons per person per year. In the
developing world, the average is under 1 balloon
per person Is this Fair?
"Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did
nothing because he thought he could do only a
little." Edmund Burke (1727 1797)
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Raising Awareness

• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a
  washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will
  cost over 100 a year just for this appliance
  alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.

• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume
  of 1 party balloon.

• A Mobile Phone charger up to 20 kWh per year
• 1000 balloons each year. 10 kg CO2

• Standby on electrical appliances
• 40 kWh a year - 4000 balloons.

• Filling up with petrol (38 for a full tank
  40 litres)
• --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5 of
  one hot air balloon)

How far does one have to drive in a small family
car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much
carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for
1 hour?
1.6 miles
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Saving Energy A Practical Guide Ways to Reduce
Your Carbon Footprint
Micro Wind
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Involve the local Community

• The residents on the island of Burray (Orkney)
  campaigned for a wind turbine.
• On average they are more than self-sufficient in
  electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter
  of electricity.
• Many of the Islanders bought shares in the
  project and are now reaping the reward.
• Orkney is hoping to be a zero net emitter of
  carbon dioxide by 2015.

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Renewable Electricity Generation in GB
Renewable Generation represented 4.2 of final
demand in 2005
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Renewable Electricity Generation in GB by Region
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Renewable Electricity Generation by type and
County in EEDA Region
The output from Scroby Sands is sufficient to
provide 95 of domestic demands of Norwich and
Ipswich combined or 30 of demand on average
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Proportion of Electricity Consumption provided by
Renewables Norfolk and Suffolk Districts
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Conclusions

• Global Warming will affect us all - in next few
  decades
• Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL
  generation of energy and small changes to
  behaviour.
• It is as much about the individuals response
  to use of energy as any technical measures the
  Government may take.
• Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real
  alternatives for renewable generation in next 5
  10 years.
• Otherwise Nuclear???
• Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming
  Energy Security issues will shortly start to
  affect us.

Are you up to the Challenge? Will you make a
pledge?
"If you do not change direction, you may end up
where you are heading."
Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist
philosopher
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Animation Courtesy of Rob Hannington
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Some Myths about Wind Energy

• What happens when the wind does not blow?.
• Large Coal /Nuclear Stations trip/ have failures
  and these cause a loss of power within a matter
  of minutes.
• In terms of short term variations wind is more
  reliable.

• Wind Turbines kill birds.
• Evidence suggesta that a few birds are killed
  typically 3 per installed MW per year except in a
  few locations. In many cases it is much less
• Oldest wind farm in UK on Burgar Hill has an
  RSPB reserve right next to it.
• Currently UK has around 1700 MW wind turbines
  installed perhaps 5000 birds killed a year
• Estimates of 1 million killed each year by
  vehicles