Gender Specific Effects of Early-Life Events on Adult Lifespan

1
????????????? ?????? ????????? ?????????? ?
??????? ??????? ?????????? ?????

• ?.?. ????????
• ?.?.?????????
• ??????????? ??????

2
????????? ????????????????? ????? ? ??????, ?????
? ?????
?????? ??? ??????? ???????
?????? 1992 62.0 73.8
?????? 1993 58.9 71.9
?????? 1994 57.6 71.2
?????? 1997 60.8 72.9
?????? 2000 58.8 71.7
?????? 2005 58.9 72.4
????? 1995 69.0 73.0
????? 1995 62.4 63.4
3
?????? ??????????????????? ????????

• Omran, Abdel R. 1971. The epidemiologic
  transition A theory of the epidemiology of
  population change. Milbank Memorial Fund
  Quaterly, 29 509-538

4
???????????

• ?????????????????? ??????? ??? ???????, ? ???????
  ???????? ????????? ?????????? ? ????????
  ????????? ?? ????????? ??????? ???????????? ?
  ??????? ?????????? ? ?????????????? ?????????
  ?????? ? ????????, ????????????? ??? ??????????
  ??????, ? ????????? ??????? ?????????? ??
  ?????????????? ? ????????? ?????????????
  ????????? ??????????? (?????? ??? ???????),
  ????????????? ?????????????? ??????? ?????????.
  (Encyclopedia Britannica)

5
??? ?????? ??????????????????? ???????? (Omran)

• The Age of Pestilence and Famine ?????
  ?????????? ?????? ? ???????????, ?? ?????
  ??????????? ??????????? ????? ?????????. ???
  20-40 ???
• The Age of Receding Pandemics ????? ??????????
  ???????????? ?????????. ??? ?????????? ?????? ?
  30 ?? 50 ???. ?????????? ???? ?????????
• The Age of Degenerative and Man-Made Diseases
  ????? ?????????? ?????????? ????????? ? ?
  ???????? ????? ????????? ????????????. ???
  ????????? 50 ???.

6
? 19 ???????? ????????? ? ????????? ???????? ????
??????? ??????????????? ? ?????????-?????????????
?????????? 20 ???????? ????????? ? ?????????
???????? ?????? ??????? ? ?????? ?? ????????
???????????, ??? ? ?????????-?????????????
????????? (???????, ?????)
7
(No Transcript)
8
????????? ?????? ????????

• ??????????????, ??? ? 1970-? ????? ??? ?????????
  ?????, ??????????????? ?????????????? ???????
  ????????????????? ?????
• ?????? ? ????? ??????? ?????? ?????? ??????
  ?????? ??????????????? ???? ???, ? ????????
  ????????? ????? ?? ???????????? ? ???????
  ????????-?????????? ???????????. ??? ??????? ?
  ???????? ???????? ??????????, ???????? ? ???????
  ?????????

9
?????????????????? ??????? ? ????

• ????????? ???? ??????? ?????? ??? ??? ??????
  ??????????????????? ????????
• ?????? ???? ?? ???? ?????????? ? ????????? ?????
  ??????????? ???????????

10
???????????????? ??????? ??????????????? (??????
??????? 1918 ????)

• ??????????? ???????? ??????? ???????????????
• ?????????? ????? ???? ? ???????????? ?????????
• ???????????????? ??????????????

11
????????? ?????? ???????????????? ???????
??????????????? ? ????

• ?????? ? ???????? ?? ????????????????
  ???????????? ???????????
• ????????? ???? ???? ??????? ?? ???????? ??
  ????????????????? ???????????, ????, ??????? ?
  ??????
• ???????????? ????????, ???????? ????????????
  ????? ?????????, ????????? ??????? ? ?????????,
  ???????? ? ?.?.

12
??????? ??? ? ??????, 1930?
13
?????????? ? ??????????? ????, 1930?
14
?? 1940??? (??? ????)
15
??????????? ? ????????? ????????? ? 1965
16
????????? ????? 1965
17
?????????? ?????? ?? ???????? ????? ??
????????????????? ?????
??????? ?., ?????????? ?. Demoscope Weekly, N
169-170, 2004
18
?????????? ?????? ?? ???????? ????? ??
????????????????? ?????
??????? ?., ?????????? ?. Demoscope Weekly, N
169-170, 2004
19
??? ????? ???????? ????????????????? ????? ?
??????
??????? ?., ?????????? ?. Demoscope Weekly, N
169-170, 2004
20
????????? ????????????????? ????? ? ?????? ?????
1964 ????
21
??? ??????????? ? 1984-2006?
22
?????? ???? ?????????

• ??? 1985 ????-??????????? ????????
• ??????? ???????? ???? ??????????? ???????
• ??? 1986 ???????? ?? ?????? ? ???????????
  ????????

23
??????????????? ???????? ?????????, 1985-1987

• ??????????? ??????? ???????? ????? ?? 51
• ???????? ??????????? ???????? ????? ?? 27
• ??????? ?????? ???????? ???? ??????????????
  ?????? ???????????????

24
???????? ???????? ???????? ???? ???????
?????????? ? ??????
25
???????? ??????????? ???????? ? ??????
1 ?.?????? 2 ?????????? 3-?.?????? 4-
??????????? ???????
26
????????????? ?????? ????-??????????? ???????? ??
??????????

• ??????????? ???????? ??????????, ?????????? ?????
  ????? ??? ?? ?????????? ?????? ????????
• ?? 1984-87??. ??? ??????? ? 61.7 ?? 64.9 ??? ?
  ?????? ? ? 73 ?? 74.3 ??? ? ??????. (Premature
  Death in the New Independent States, NAS, 1997)

27
?????? ????-??????????? ???????? ?? ??? ? ??????
28
????? ??????? ??????? ?? ??????? ?? ? ?????
????-??????????? ????????
29
????? ???????? ?????? ?????? ? ????????? ???,
???????
30
???????? ?????????? ????-??????????? ????????

• ?????????? ???????? ?????????? ??????????? ?
  ???????? ? ?????????? ???????? ????????
  ?????????? ? ?????????????? ?????????
• ???????????? ??????????? ? ?????????? ?????????
• ?????????? ????????? ??????????????? ? ???????
  ?????????????? ????????? ??-?? ????????
  ?????????? ?? ??????? ?????? ? ????????-??????????
  ???????????

31
? ?????????? ????-??????????? ????????

• ????? 1 ???????? ?????? ???? ???????
• ??????????? ???????? ?????????, ?? ??????????
  ??????? 10.5-12.6 ? ?? ???????? ? ??? ?
  1986-1991
• ? 1984 ???? ?????? ????? ???????, ????? ???
  ???????? ????????? ? ????????? ?????????? 525,000
  ??? 31.8 ???? ?????????????????? ??????? (4.4 ?
  ??? 3.1 ? ?????? ? 1995?.)
• ????-??????????? ???????? ??????? ????? ???????,
  ????????? ? ????????? ?? 200,000
• ?????? ?.???????

32
???????? ? ???????????

• ???????????, ?????????, ????????? ? ?.?.
  ????-??????????? ???????? ???? ????????
• ? 1990 ???? ????????? ???? ?????????? ???????????
  ?????? ???? ?? ????????? 45-??????? ?????????
  ????? ???????? ? ???????

33
??????? ???????? ?????????? ? ??????? 1991

• ????, ???????? ? ?????, ?????? ?? ?????
• ???? ?? ???????? ????????? ?????????

34
1992 ??????? ???????

• ???????????????? ???? ???
• ???????? ????? ??????
• ????????? ??? ???? ????????
• ???????????? ?????
• ?????? ?????????? ??? ???????? ??? ???????
  ???????? ?????????

35
?????? ??? ? ??????? ??????????
36
?????? ?????? ??????? ?? ??? ? ??????
??? ?????? ????? ? 63.8 ??? ? 1990 ?? 57.4 ??? ?
1994. ??? ?????? ????? ? 74.3 ??? ? 1990 ?? 71.1
??? ? 1994
37
??????????? ? ?????? ??? ??????? ?????
38
???????? ????????? ??????????

• ????????, ????? ??????? ????????? ?????????
  ???????? ?????????? ???? ?????? (??????????
  ?????? ?? ????????).
• ??????????? ? ??????? ?????? (???????? ?????),
  ????????? ?????? ? ??????? ??????????????
  ????????????, ??????? ??????.
• ???????? ????????? ?????????? ? ??????? ?.????
  ??????????? ??????????????? ? ??????, ? ???????
  ???????? ??????? ?????????? ?????????? ? ????????
  35-55 ???.
• ???????? ??????? ???? ?????????? ??????????? ??
  ?????????????? ?????? ? ?????????? ??????? ?????
  ??????? ? ???????????????? ????? ?????????

39
??????? 1993

• ? ???????? 1993 ?????? ????????? ?????????
  ??????. ??? ????????? ?????????? ??????????????
  ?????.
• ????????????? ???????????? ? ?????

40
1996

• ?????? ?????????? ????????????? ??????
• ?????? ??????? ???? ????????? ?? ????????????
  ????????, ??? ? ?????????? ??????? ? ????????
  ????????? ?????? ? ????? ????????? ???????????,
  ?? ?????????? ??????? ??????

41
1998 ????? ????????????? ??????

• 28 ??????? 1998 ???? ?? ????? ?????????? ???????
  ?????????? ???????? ????????, ?????????????
  ?????? ???????? ?????? ?? ????? ?????????? ?
  ?????????? ????? ????? ?? ??????????? ??????.
• ????????? ???????? ???????????? ????? ??????????
  ? ??????

42
?????? 1998 ???? ????????? ???????? ?????????? ?
??????
43
Decline of life expectancy at age 15 between
1998-2005. Men
44
Decline of life expectancy at age 15 between
1998-2005. Women
45
?????? ?????? ? ?????? ? 2000

• ????????? ???????? ? ???????? ?????????
• ?????? ?????? ?????????? ????????? ??? ??
  ?????? ??????
• ?????? ?????????, ???????????? ? ????????? ???-???

46
???????? ??? (1989100)
Russia Average, transition countries
47
???????? ????? ????????? ??????

• ????? ?? ????????? ??????????????? ????????????

48
??? ? ??????? ?.???? ? 2005, ???????
49
??? ? ??????? ?.???? ? 2005, ???????
50
????????? ????????????????? ????? ? ?????? ?
?????? ?????????? ???????
??????? ?., ?????????? ?. Demoscope Weekly, N
169-170, 2004
51
????????? ????????????????? ????? ? ?????? ?
?????? ?????????? ???????
??????? ?., ?????????? ?. Demoscope Weekly, N
169-170, 2004
52
???????????? ???????? ????? ?????????? ?
1965-1984 ? 1984-2002?????????? ???????. ???????
??????? ? ??., 2005
53
???????????? ???????? ????? ?????????? ?
1965-1984 ? 1984-2002?????????? ???????. ???????
??????? ? ??., 2005
54
???????????? ???????? ????? ?????????? ?
1965-1984 ? 1984-2002???? ???????? ??????
??????. 1965-1984??.
??????? ? ??., 2005
55
???????????? ???????? ????? ?????????? ?
1965-1984 ? 1984-2002???? ???????? ??????
??????. 1984-2002??.
??????? ? ??., 2005
56
??? ??????????? ? ?????? ??????? ??????????????
????????????

• ????????????? ?????? ? ????? ?????????????
  ???????? ??????????
• ?????????? ?????? ????????? ?????????????????
  ?????
• ?????? ?????????? ?????????? ????????, ??
  ???????? ???????? ???????? ??????
• ?????? ??????? ???? ? ????? ?????????????
  ????????, ?? ???????? ??????? ??? ? ?????????
  ???? ? ????????? ??????? (???????? ???????)

57
????????????????? ????? ? ??????? ??????????
??????, ?????, ???????. ???????
58
????????????????? ????? ? ??????? ??????????
??????, ?????, ???????. ???????
59
????????????????? ????? ? ????????, ?????? ?
???????. ???????
60
????????????????? ????? ? ????????, ?????? ?
???????. ???????
61
????????????????? ????? ? ???????????,
??????????? ? ?????????????. ???????
62
????????????????? ????? ? ???????????,
??????????? ? ?????????????. ???????
63
????????????????? ????? ? ????????????,
??????????, ????????????. ???????
64
????????????????? ????? ? ????????????,
??????????, ????????????. ???????
65
???????????? ?????????? ? ??????? ??????? ????
?????????, ??????, ??????????
66
?????????? ???????? ????? ?????????? ? ??????????
??????
67
?????????? ?????? ????????????? ????????? ??????
???????, ???????????? ? ?????????? ?? ???????
68
?????????????? ???????? ? ?????? ? ???
69
????????? ?????????? ?? ??????? ??? ???????? ?
???????? ???????? ? ???????????? ??????????
?????????? ??????
???????
???????
70
?????????? ??????? ?????????? ?? ??????? ?
?????? 1981-2002 ????
???????
???????
71
(No Transcript)
72
??????????? ??????? ??????????? ???????? ????????
? 1990-? ?????
73
Age Profiles of Mortality from Accidental
Poisoning by AlcoholData from Russian Vital
Statistics
Males
Females
74
???????? ? ????????

• ? 1992-1993 ???? ?? ???????? ????? ???????????
  ?????????, ??? ???????? ? ????? ?????? ???,
  ??????? ? ???? 1994 ????? ? 1229 ??? ?? ?????????
  ? ???????? 1992.
• ? ?? ?? ????? ???? ?? ???????? ??????? ???? ? 421
  ??? ?? ????????? ? ??????? ???????.
  ?????????????, ??? ??????????? ???????? ? ??????
  ????? ???????? ?? ???? ????????????? ??????? ?
  ???????? ???????? ???????

75
???????? ???????? ???????? ?? ????? ????????
??????

• In 1992 state monopoly on alcohol sales was
  abolished
• Self-production of alcohol became not profitable
  but over 20 of alcohol sales included technical
  alcohol
• Sample control tests showed that proportion of
  below quality standards alcohol was 5.6 in 1992
  and 30.4 in 1994
• Imported alcohol had even lower quality 67.2
  below quality standards

76
????????? ????????

• Alcohol surrogates non-food liquids containing
  ethanol (polishing liquids, perfume,
  pharmaceutical tinctures, etc.)
• Alcohol surrogates are cheap, so they are
  attractive to poor persons. May be the only
  source of ethanol for impoverished persons.
• 47 of men who used surrogates were unemployed.
  Only 13 of men not used surrogates were
  unemployed

77
???????? ????????? ??????????? ????????

• ?????? ??????

?????????, ????????
78
??????????? ??????? ???????? ? ?????????????????
?????
79
??????????? ??????? ???????? ? ?? ?????????
80
???? ????? ???????????? ?????
81
?????????? ?????? ??????? ?????? (16-39 ???),
??????? ? 2004 ???? ? ????????? ???????
82
?????? ??????, ?????????? ? ????? 1980-? ?????? ?
????????????? ????????? ?????????? ??????????
??? ?????? ????? ?????????? ????? ???????? -
????????? ?????????????? ????????? ??????????
83
????????? ?????????? ?????????????? ??????????
????????

• ?????????? ????????? ?????? ??????
• ????????? ???????? ??????? ??????????
• ???????????? ?????????????? ??????????? ????????
  ??????? ? ????????? ????????????? ?????

84
????? ????????????, ??? ???? ?????????? ? 90-?
????? ??????????? ???????????????

• ??????????? ???? ??????????????????? ?????
  ????????? (??? ?????? ????? ?????????
  ???????????? ? ??? ??????)
• ?????????? ?????? ?????????? ? ?????????
  ????????????????? ??????? ?????????

85
?????????????? ?????????? ??????????????
????????? ?????? ????????
86
?????????? ? ??????? 1990-1999
87
(No Transcript)
88
?????????? ??????? ?????????? ?? ???????????
???????
???????
89
?????????????????? ???????? ? ?????????? ??
100000 ????????? (1991-1999)
90
(No Transcript)
91
??????????? ???????????? ?? ???????????????
?????????? ??????? 20-69???, ??????
???????? Shkolnikov et al., SSM, 1998
92
?? ???? ???? ???????????? ???? ????? ? ??????
??????? ???????????? ?? ???????? ??????
93
?????????? ????????? ??? ? ?????? ?? ?????????
??? ????
94
??????????? ????????? ????? ???

• ?????????? ??????? ? ??????? ????????? (15-64)
• ???????? ????????? ? ?????????? ?? ??????,
  ??????????????? ????????? ? ????????????
  ????????, ??????????? ???????? ? ??????????????
  ?????????????
• ??? ????????? ????? ???? ??????? ? ?????? ??
  ???????? ?? ??????????? ??????????, ????????? ?
  2005?.

95
?????????? ??????????, ????????? ? ?????????
Age-standardized mortality of men (per 100,000)
from accidental poisoning by alcohol
96
???? ??? ? 2005-2006, ???????
97
???? ??? ? 2005-2006, ???????
98
???????????? ?????????? ??????? ??????????
1992-1994 ?????

• ???????? ???????????????? ??????? (???? ????????)
  (Shapiro, 1995 Cornia, Paniccia, 1995
  Shkolnikov et al., 1998)
• ???????? ???????? (???????? ???????????) by
  Avdeev, Blum, Zakharov, Andreev, 1997.

99
????? ?????????? ????????

• ???????? ????????? ? ????? ???? ?? ??? ????????
  ???? ?? ?????, ?? ???????????? ?????????? ??????
  ???? ?? ?????, ? ?? ?????????
• ?????????? ??????? ??????????????? ?????? ?????
  ???????????? ?????????? ?????????
• ??????????? ?????????? ????? ??????????? ??????
  ???? ??????? ? 1992-1994??., ????? ??? ?
  ???????????????? ??? ?????????

100
??????? ????? ?????????? ? ?????????? ??????
???, ????????????
?????????? ??????
??????? ?????????
??????? ???????? ??????? ??????????? ??????
??????, ???????? ??????, ?????
????????
?????????? ?????????? ???? ????????
???? ????????????
101
Age Profile of Suicide Mortality in Russia
1981-2001
Males
Females