Demography of Russia and the Former Soviet Union

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Demography of Russia and the Former Soviet Union

• Lecture 17
• Sociology SOCI 20182

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Population Policy
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Recent UN Report

• World Population Policies 2007
• Based on official views regarding population
  processes and policies in 195 countries
  world-wide
• Considers evolution of population policies in
  1976-2006

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Major concerns on population issues

• 90 countries are concerned with spread of HIV
  infection (93 developing countries and 81
  developed countries)
• 73 countries are concerned with high infant
  mortality
• 70 countries are concerned with high maternal
  mortality
• 81 developed countries are concerned with
  population aging (55 all countries)

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Major concerns of the developed world

• HIV/AIDS 81
• Population aging 81
• Low fertility 61
• Size of the population of working age 61

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Government Views on Population Growth
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Population policies related to population growth
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Russian Government Views and Policies on
Population Growth
1996 2007
View on population growth Satisfactory Too low
Policy on population growth No intervention Raise
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Population growth - conclusions

• Now more developed countries are concerned with
  low population growth
• Proportion of developed countries with policies
  to modify their population growth increased
  (from 23 in 1996 to 37 in 2007)

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Population aging

• In 2007, 55 countries were concerned by the
  consequences of population aging
• Population aging is the second concern (after
  HIV) for the governments of developed countries

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Government concern about population aging in 2007
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Government concern about the size of the labor
force population, 2007
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Russian Government

• No data for 1996
• In 2007, major concern about population aging and
  size of the working-age population

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Population policies to alleviate the consequences
of population aging

• In 2002-2006 pension age was increased in 41 out
  of 164 countries
• The age of retirement providing a right for a
  full pension is 60 years for men in 60
  countries. The same age for women in 40
  countries
• However half of men in the European Union retire
  at age 61.5 years and half of women retire before
  age 60

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Fertility (polarization of views)

• Proportion of countries satisfied with their
  level of fertility declined from 53 in 1976 to
  35 in 2007
• Proportion of the least developed countries
  concerned with high level of fertility increased
  from 31 in 1976 to 90 in 2007
• Proportion of developed countries concerned with
  too low level of fertility increased from 21 in
  1976 to 61 in 2007

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Government policies on the level of fertility
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Government policies on the level of fertility
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Population policies implemented in developed
countries to increase fertility

• Child support payments
• Family support payments
• Maternity leave and leave for child care
• Medical subsidies for child care
• Tax benefits
• Housing subsidies
• Flexible work schedule for parents with children

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Governments providing direct support to
facilitate access to modern contraceptive methods
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Policies on availability of modern contraception
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Government concern about teenage births
Concerns predominantly countries of America
(South and North) and Africa
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Russian Government Views and Policies
1996 2007
View on fertility level Too low Too low
Policy on fertility No intervention Raise
Access to contraception Direct support Indirect support
Adolescent fertility
Level of concern Minor concern Major concern
Policy Yes No
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New measures to stimulate fertility in Russia
(effective January 1, 2007)

• increase in payments to mothers with children
  younger than 1.5 years
• Doubling the support level, and broader
  outreach, not just extremely poor

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New measures to stimulate fertility in Russia (2)

• maternal (family) capital 
• (financial certificate for mothers with 2
  children and more)
• subsidized mortgages for families with 2
  children, child education, pension, etc.,
  (250,000 rubles, about 10,000)

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New Measures to stimulate fertility in Russia (3)

• subsidized pre-school child care
• 20 subsidy for one child
• 50 for two children
• 70 for 3 and more children

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New measures to stimulate fertility in Russia (4)

• financial support to persons and families, who
  adopted an orphaned or abandoned child
• Shift to in-family care as opposed to
  institutionalized care
• 3 times raise in benefits4,000 rubles
  per month for child, and 2,500 rubles per month
  for parenting job

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Mortality and Health

• Proportion of countries satisfied with their
  level of mortality increased (due to decreased
  concerns in developing countries)

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Proportion of countries concerned with their
level of mortality
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Proportion of countries concerned with their
level of child mortality
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Government concerns about HIV spread
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Distribution of countries according to the
measures to respond to HIV/AIDS epidemics
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Russian Government Views and Policies
1996 2007
Views
Life expectancy at birth Unacceptable Unacceptable
Under-five mortality Unacceptable Unacceptable
Maternal mortality ----- Unacceptable
Concern about HIV/AIDS Minor concern Major concern
Policy about HIV --- Yes
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Population spatial distribution

• Urbanization. In 1950-2005 urban population
  increased more than 4 times
• Initially population excess in rural areas,
  migration to cities
• Finally overcrowding of urban areas,
  particularly in large urban agglomerations

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Government concern about population spatial
distribution
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Government policies related to internal
migration, 2007
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Government policies regarding migration to urban
agglomerations
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Russian Government Views on Internal Migration

• 1996. Views on spatial distribution Major
  change desired to make population spatial
  distribution more even
• 2007. Views on spatial distribution Major
  change desired to make population spatial
  distribution more even

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Immigration

• Significant changes in attitudes to immigration
  compared to the 1990s
• In 1996, 33 of developed countries considered
  the level of immigration too high. Only 6 in
  2007.
• In 2007, 10 of developed countries considered
  the level of immigration too low.
• Shift to less restrictive immigration policy

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Government views on the level of immigration
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Government policy related to different types of
migration, 2007
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Russian Government Views and Policies
1996 2007
Views on immigration Too high Too low
Policy on immigration Lower Raise
- Permanent settlement Lower Raise
- Temporary workers Maintain Raise
- Skilled workers ---- Raise
- Family reunification No interv. No interv.
Integration of non-citizens Yes Yes
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Emigration

• Growing number of countries consider their level
  of emigration as too high
• 13 in 1976
• 29 in 2007
• However, some developing countries with young
  population and high unemployment rate promote
  emigration (Vietnam, Philippines)

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Government views on emigration
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Government policies on emigration
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Russian Government Views and Policies
1996 2007
Views on emigration Too high Too high
Policy on emigration Lower No intervention
Encouraging return of citizens Yes Yes
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Russian President on Demographic Situation in
Russia(Address to Russian Parliament, May 10,
2006)

• Demographic problem is "the most urgent problem
  of modern Russia"
• Demographic situation is "critical"
• "We talked at lot on this topic but did little."
• Government is "too slow with unacceptable
  bureaucracy in resolving the problem"
• Suggested 10 year program with three priorities
• -- to decrease mortality
• -- effective migration policy
• -- to increase fertility

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Russian President on How to Decrease
Mortality(Address to Russian Parliament, May 10,
2006)

• Program to prevent traffic accidents and improve
  road safety
• To eradicate production and import of alcohol
  surrogates (poisoned alcohol)
• National Project "Health" focused on prevention
  and treatment of cardiovascular diseases, and
  other major causes of death.
• Comment
• No direct mentioning of alcoholism problem (by
  "pure", not poisoned alcohol)
• No direct mentioning of smoking problem

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Russian President on Priorities in Migration
Policy(Address to Russian Parliament, May 10,
2006)

• Returning back Russian compatriots from abroad
  (repatriation)
• Preferences should be given to educated
  immigrants without criminal record
• Immigrants should respect Russian culture and
  traditions (Russian language?)
• Comment
• Not much is done yet to enforce these wishes

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March 15, 2010 Exam

• Multiple-choice questions
• Questions do not extend beyond the lectures

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Requirements

• General understanding of demographic indicators
  (fertility, marriage, mortality, population
  aging) their pros and cons. No need to
  memorize exact formulas.
• Knowledge of major trends in population growth,
  fertility/reproductive health, mortality,
  migration and population aging during the
  transition period (1990-2000) in Russia.
• New trends during the last decade (2000-2010) in
  Russia.
• Major factors affecting fertility, mortality and
  population aging in Russia
• Understanding population pyramids