GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE (GEC)

1
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE (GEC) Change in type,
frequency magnitude of environmental threats
Capacity to cope with /or recover from GEC
FOOD SYSTEM SECURITY / VULNERABILITY
Exposure to GEC
SOCIETAL CHANGE Change in institutions, resource
accessibility, economic conditions, etc.
2
From Coping strategies to Adaptation strategies

• Coping strategies short term and local scale
• E.g. eating less, selling a cow, keeping girls
  home from school, accepting food aid, planting
  later than normal
• Adaptation longer term and higher (broader)
  scale
• E.g. changing staple food preference, moving to
  the city permanently, switching to commercial
  crops with irrigation

3
For long term and regional or national
adaptation, need enabling institutions and
policies

• Environmental water infrastructure, grazing
  rules
• Crops input subsidies, market access
• Social school lunches, government safety nets
• Economic water pricing policy, trade preferences

4
Increasing adaptive capacity can reduce
vulnerability to stressors
Stressor Vulnerability Adaptive strategy
Water quantity stress Few drought tolerant crops with market value Increase groundwater? Open markets for new crops?
Low human capital as result of HIV/AIDS Barrier to institutional reform and learning Educate youth? Make drug treatment cheaper?
Low political integration Barrier to regional trade and economic growth SADC and NEPAD?
5
Multiple stressors, multiple adaptation pathways
HIV/ AIDS incidence, Low prices for raw agric
product Poor terms of trade
Low household income Low food produced Malnutritio
n
Late and poor rains, Low agric biodiversity
Question what is the best adaptation strategy?
6
Multiple strategies and multiple levels (local,
national, regional)

• To reduce malnutrition
• Lower HIV rates in one area? Nationally?
• Increase nutritional value of food by promoting
  alternative crops nationally? Locally? (what
  about markets?) or with commercial supplements?
  From local or international sources?
• Reduce water borne diseases?

7
Institutions and policies (and hence reforms or
changes) can work at cross-purposes

• E.g. National policy to promote sorghum can hurt
  prices for traditional sorghum region
• E.g. local policy to increase access to
  irrigation can affect neighbouring water supply
• Low educational capacity locally can limit
  national environmental management