Mitigation and Adaptation

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Mitigation and Adaptation Tony McMichael,
NCEPH Thursday 2nd October 2003
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Definitions IPCC-Speak

• Mitigation The slowing or avoidance of climate
  change by stabilising the composition of the
  troposphere.
• Adaptation Actions (planned or autonomous) taken
  to reduce the adverse health impact of current or
  impending climate change.

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Global Environmental Change and Human
Impacts The Causal Chain
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Global Environmental Change as exposure

• What is unusual about this exposure?

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Historical and projected carbon emissions per
person, and projections of allowable emissions
per person at high, medium, and low projections
of population growth to limit atmospheric carbon
dioxide concentrations to 450 ppm
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Main pathways by which climate change and
associated mitigation/adaptation strategies
affects health
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Current Climate
Changed Climate
Climate
Attribute (e.g. temp)
Time (years)
Ability to Cope
Current Climate
Changed Climate
Climate
Attribute
Ability to Cope
Time (years)
Changed Climate
Current Climate
Climate
Attribute
Time (years)
Ability to Cope
Current Climate
Changed Climate
Climate
Attribute
Time (years)
Ability to Cope
(Adapted from IPCC, 2001)
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The Context and Task for Epidemiologists

• Understanding the significance, sources and
  processes of global environmental changes
• Sustainable Development ensuring that risks to
  population health are clarified and communicated
• Developing better methods for the triple task of
  elucidating, detecting and forecasting
  GEC-related risks to health

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An Ecological-Epidemiological Perspective
Recent Past
Present
Future
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The End