Political Change in Ukraine

1
Political Change in Ukraine

• Geography 308
• Presented by Ken Tambornino

2
The 2004 Election

• Viktor Yushchenko

• Viktor Yanukovych

3
Ukraines political division is regional
Results as of November 2004
4
Geography of the Election

• There is a clear division of Eastern and Western
  Ukraine.

Eastern
Western
Politically Nationalistic, more Connected to
Ukraine as an Independent state Ethnically more
Ukrainian Than East Highly in favor of
Viktor Yushchenko
Politically more in favor of a connection to
Russia Ethnically has a larger Russian minority
than West Highly in favor of Viktor Yanukovych
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More Differences between Western and Eastern
Ukraine

• Western
• Most westerners speak Ukrainian
• Uniate (Greek Catholic Church) major religion
• Associate more with Western European Neighbors

• Eastern
• Areas in East (especially urban centers) Russian
  dominates
• Russian and Ukrainian Orthodoxy dominates
• Associate more with Russia and former Soviet
  status

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More Differences between Western and Eastern
Ukraine

• Eastern
• Fears entering EU and/or NATO will hurt relations
  with Russia

• Western
• In favor of entering the EU and NATO

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The Crimean Peninsula
An area a particular interest to Russia and also
a source of recent conflict
The Crimean was part of Russia until 1954 as a
gift to Ukraine from Khrushchev on his Birthday
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The Crimean Peninsula

• The area has many historical ties to Russia and
  contains many ethnic Russians (70)
• Geographically the area is a very valuable
  natural resource for example its access to both
  the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov
• Crimea was the former homeland of Crimean Tatars
  (until Stalin forced their removal) but recently
  they have been migrated back to the newly
  independent state.

9
The Crimean Peninsula

• Access to the Black Sea has been a source of
  conflict between Russia and Ukraine
• A recent border dispute occurred with a Russian
  dam being constructed near Ukraines territorial
  waters. There was pressure from the Ukrainian
  Government at one point in 2003 telling Russia
  not to build the dam any further for it would
  extend into Ukrainian territorial waters.
  Ukraine threatened to stop participating in an
  economic zone with Russia, Belarus, and
  Kazakhstan and also warned they would get support
  from NATO.

10
The Crimean Peninsula

• Due to Crimeas Russian heritage and large amount
  of ethnic Russians, Crimeans feel more connected
  to Russia than to Ukraine or East central Europe,
  and especially not Western Europe
• Crimeans fear NATO expansion in Ukraine as NATOs
  military influence in Crimea would be a threat to
  their Russian ally.
• Since Yushchenko is in favor of closer
  connections with the EU and NATO, this area
  heavily voted against him.

11
Results of the Primary Election
12
Results of the First Run-off Election
13
Results of the Primary Election

• East-West division clear
• Very close between the top two candidates only
  155,816 votes or 0.55 of all votes in favor of
  Yushchenko
• By Ukraines election laws a gt50 majority of the
  vote is required to elect
• This leads to a run-off election between the top
  two candidates Viktor Yushchenko and Viktor
  Yanukovych held December 21 2004

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First Run-off Election Results
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First Run-off Election Results

• Ukraines election commission declares Viktor
  Yanukovych the winner on December 22 (day after
  the election) with 49.4 to Yushchenkos 46.7
• This leads to protests by supporters of
  Yushchenko known as the Orange Revolution

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The Orange Revolution

• Protesters at Independence Square in Kiev

17
Orange Revolution

• Started by supporters of Viktor Yushchenko to
  protest the results of Ukraines Presidential 1st
  run-off election of Nov. 21 2004
• Protesters claimed election fraud, voter
  intimidation and corruption.
• Protesters camp out in Kievs Independence Square
  in enormous numbers
• City councils in four major Ukrainian cities
  refuse to recognize Yanukovych as winning and
  claimed Yushchenko was the rightful winner

18
Orange Revolution

• On November 23 Parliament symbolically swears in
  Yushchenko as President legally this was not
  official because Yanukovych supporters boycotted
  the session and their were not enough members
  present to have legal quorum
• On November 25th Ukraines Supreme Court ordered
  the official results not to be published until
  the protesters accusations were investigated
• Western Ukrainian television starts to show more
  coverage of protests while many places in the
  East screen images of the protests

19
Orange Revolution

• 10,000 Internal Ministry troops sent in to keep
  protesters under control November 28th
• Disputes were held by Government officials as to
  whether a re-run of the run-off should be held or
  an entirely new first round election
• On Dec 3rd Ukraines Supreme Court declared the
  results of the run-off election to be invalid and
  to have a repeat vote of the run-off election on
  December 26

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Results of the 2nd Run-off
21
Results of the 2nd Run-off
Viktor Yushchenko is officially inaugurated
Ukraines 3rd President on January 23, 2005
22
Results of 2nd Run-off
23
Results of the 2nd Run-off
Notice that the East had a much larger turnout
for the 2nd round
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Implications of the Election

• The results of the election show just how much
  political conflict exists in Ukraine
• Orange Revolution showed how strong Ukrainian
  Nationalism is
• Results illustrate how Ukraine has become divided
  among East and West
• Viktor Yushchenkos policies will likely be very
  controversial among Ukraines population

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Implications of the Election

• Ethnic conflicts in Ukraine have been brought to
  worldwide attention by this controversial
  election
• If Yushchenko keeps to campaign promises, Ukraine
  will likely become more involved in the EU and
  NATO (maybe even gain member status) in the near
  future
• Ukrainian troops have been pulled from Iraq

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Sources
http//blog.kievukraine.info/2005_01_01_kievukrai
nenewsblo g_archive.html. http//en.wikipedia.org
/wiki/Orange_Revolution. http//upload.wikimedia.
org/wikipedia/en/thumb/c/c5/180px-Viktor_Fedorovyc
h_Yanukovych_prime_minister_of_Ukraine.jpg. http
//ww2.yuschenko.com.ua/eng/photo/Official/?fid1r
ecnum0. http//www.artukraine.com/agrinews/image
s/yushchenko7.jpg. http//www.infoukes.com/orange
_revolution/. http//www.lapshin.org/nikita/addre
ss.htm.
27
Sources
Mulvey, Stephen. Analysis Divided Ukraine. BBC
News. 25 November 2004. At http//news.bbc.co.uk/2
/hi/europe/4043315.stm. http//en.wikipedia.org/wi
ki/Post-election_developments_in_Ukraine2C_2004.
Post-election developments in Ukraine, 2004.
Wikipedia. 7 February 2005. At
http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post- election_deve
lopments_in_Ukraine2C_2004. Russia halts dike
construction near Ukraine's waters. Beijing
Time. October 24, 2003. At http//english.people
.com.cn/200310/24/eng20031024_126780.shtml. Ukra
inian Presidential Election, 2004. Wikipedia. 5
April 2005. At http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrain
ian_presidential_election2C_2004.