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Emerging trends in risk management From
fatality to  riskocraty  ?Y. Bamberger, EDF
RD directorMember of the French Academy of
Technology
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Summary

• From fatality to riskocraty ?
• Evolution of risk management The case of EDF
• RD agenda for Industrial Risk Management
  Examples in EDF
• Conclusion Build a  culture of risk
  management 

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From fatality to riskocraty ?
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From fatality to riskocraty ?

• At the beginning, risk is fate
• In Greek and Roman conceptions of the world, the
  material world is dominated by the will of the
  Gods
• Alea, hazard, chance are terms associated with
  gambling.
• Risk is not manageable. Accidents are the
  punishment of the Gods when humans have the
  excessive ambition (hubris) to move from their
  natural position
•  Against the
  Gods. The remarkable story of risk  P.L.
  Bernstein, 1996
• Risk management becomes one of the drivers of
  European expansion
• Risk is manageable. Accidents are under the
  responsibility of human decisions. Theoretical
  thinking and mathematics became tools for
  decision and conception
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  Calculation will defeat gambling (Napoleon
  Bonaparte).
• Successive theories of risks, follows the
  successes and failures of industrialized
  countries
• XIXth century Rationality and positivism Risk
  is a measurement of our lack of knowledge
• After WWI and WWII Irrationality as limit to the
  rational decision, risk is a level of belief

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From fatality to riskocraty ?

• Globalisation, Post industrialization
• Risk as a balance between opportunity and
  ambiguity ?
• Precautionary principle as support of decisions
  process ?
• Relativism risk as social representation
• In industrialized countries, risk becomes a
  social issue...
• Technological achievements have reduced the issue
  of resources scarcity in industrial countries
  risk repartition becomes an indicator of inequity
• Risk management has social and political
  dimensions. Modalities of risk transfer becomes a
  central political dispute.
• The legitimacy of power comes from the capability
  to manage risks rather than resource control or
  technical knowledge
• 
  
• 
  Are we moving to a
   riskocraty  ?
• 
   The
  society of risk U. Beck, 1986

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Evolution of risk management - The case of EDF
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Evolution of risk management The case of EDF

• EDF is deeply concerned by safety management and
  crisis management
• Electrical network
• Responsibility for system safety for electricity
  transiting in and through France
• What about blackouts ?
• Nuclear production
• Around 70 of EDF production in France, with
  major safety stakes.
• Hydraulic production
• Around 15 of EDF production, more than 100 sites
  spread in all regions of France
• Occupational hazards
• One of the largest automotive fleet of France
• Crisis management
• Crisis prevention Y2K bug
• Crisis management Heavy wind storms in
  France,1999 Heat wave, summer 2003
• however accidents still
  happen and represent dark milestones
• Waterway on the Drac river, 1995

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Example of nuclear safety

• Diversification and redundancy of defence lines
  and controls
• Safety based conception
• In depth material defence lines (3 successive
  lines in PWR designs)
• Quantitative Risk Analysis (including human
  factors)
• Safety management based on
• Procedures, training, organisation, culture
• Adaptative levels for Safety management
• Normal condition, survey, mitigation, crisis
  management
• Learning from building, exploitation and
  decommissioning
• Mix of complementary approaches
• Material, organisational and human
• Technical and organisational
• Deterministic and probabilistic
• Standardized equipments and local organizations
• Third party controls by the safety authority

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Example of nuclear safety

• Cumulative evolution of safety concepts
• 70s Technical Reliability
• Quality and Safety margins of equipments and
  procedures
• Reduced role of the human a factor of reliability
• 80s Emergence of the human error concept
• Development of Quantitative Risk Analysis
• Major revision of procedures and ergonomic
  concepts
• Organization seen as a recovery
• Generalization of field return
• 90s Safety as part of culture
• Safety culture does not only rely on procedures
• Definition of the Safety Management
• Organization seen as resilient
• 00s Taking account of organizational factors
• New exploitation of field return related to human
  failures
• Socio organizational diagnostic...
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  The challenge manage risk and uncertainty
  under the dual pressure of safety and
  performance.

TMI
Tchernobyl
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Example of nuclear safety
Successive approaches of human factors
SYSTEMIC
Failure induced by the social and technical
context
Human as part of a system
ERGONOMY
Failure of the man-system interaction
Human at work
COGNITION
Human as a computer
Human error
BEHAVIORISM
Human as a machine
Human failure
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Evolution of risk management The case of EDF

• Reinforcement of the risk control activities,
  under the pressure of financial environment and
  regulatory changes
• New financial reporting and accounting rules
• EDF no longer baked by government for financial
  risks
• Complex financial engineering, in interaction
  with operational and industrial risks
• Systemic risks (climate change, new forms of
  terrorism)
• From hazard assessment to risk assessment and
  ambiguity assessment, in response to the
  precautionary principle
• 
  ...EDF creates a Risk Control corporate group
• A new way to control risks, adapted to the new
  context of risks, and keeping in mind the lessons
  from nuclear safety and recent crisis
• Independence from financial and insurance risk
  management
• Mixed approaches risk mapping, risk
  intelligence, energy market risk aggregation

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RD agenda for Industrial Risk Management
Examples in EDF -
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RD agenda for Industrial Risk Management
Examples in EDF

• Risk assessment under the dual pressure of safety
  and performance
• Risks induced by the use of new technologies
• Low cost, high performance microsystems and NTIC
  in safety systems
• Risk indicators for emerging technologies
• Uncertainty and safety margins assessment in
  probabilistic models
• Statistical and probabilistic approaches for
  thermofluidics, mechanics, neutronics,
  environmental sciences
• Risk assessment of long end events climatic
  evolutions, nuclear waste storage,
• Global risk assessment of complex systems with
  many risk attributes
• Agregation of sectorial risk assessment for the
  analysis of a complex system or environment
• Modelling and analysis of complex and non
  homogeneous infrastructures

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RD agenda for Industrial Risk Management
Examples in EDF

• Economic evaluation and optimization under the
  dual pressure of safety and performance
• Multi Criteria Decision Analysis and
  collaborative approaches
• Overcome the limitations of cost benefit analysis
  based on a pure monetarization of risk
• Consider multiple risk representations, according
  to stakeholder position
• Management of complex socio technical systems
  under the dual pressure of safety and
  performance
• Understand and increase the performance of the
  individual or the team inside a complex system
• Mobilize multiple insights and theories of human
  and social sciences (ergonomics, psychology,
  sociology, anthropology) to overcome the
  limitation of safety policies limited to the
  application of straight procedures
• Accident analysis from an organisational
  perspective
• Root causes of industrial crisis or accidents are
  often organisational (Challenger 1986, Columbia,
  2003 same causes, same effects ?).
• Identify organisational theories and factors
• Build preventive approaches for diagnostic and
  evaluation

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RD agenda for Industrial Risk Management
Examples in EDF

• AMPHY a multi attribute decision process
• Decision making based on quantitative risk
  assessment of high stakes maintenance strategies
• Structuring the problem
• Risk Quantification
• Decision maker preference elicitation
• Final ranking best risk-cost compromise with
  regard of decision makers preferences
• Application to Hydro-Power Stations optimisation
  of maintenance with simultaneous advantages in
  cost and safety

Flood discharge of the dam of Tuilières
The flow pipe of Pouget
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Conclusion Build a  culture of risk
management 
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Conclusion build a  culture of risk management 

• Why to built a  culture of risk management  ?
• A risk management culture influences risk
  analysis, risk control, risk communication. It
  supports the survival of the organization
• Treat and control pure risks
• Take entrepreneurial risks
• Communicate about decisions and risk
  acceptability by stakeholders,
• Manage and survive to emergency and crisis
  situations
• How to build it ?
• Parallel decision and regulation processes,
  consistent with emerging trends
• Regulation by the assurance markets and expert
  rules
• Regulation by participation and debates
• Regulation by ad hoc communities
• A positive reply to the riskocraty ?

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Conclusion build a  culture of risk management 

• Risk culture building is a multidisciplinary
  approach, integrating technical, financial,
  statistical, probabilistic, economic, human and
  social sciences.
• It is a long end and continuously adapting
  journey...
• Nothing is ever a complete failure it can
  always serve as a bad example
• Carlsons Consolation, 1978

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