IGBP Powerpoint Presentation

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International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme
IGBP
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International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme
IGBP
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An Integrated Earth System
The natural cycling of the planet
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Vostok ice core 400,000 years
Source Petit, et al., Nature 399, 429-436, 1999
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Surface Temperature 2000 years
Anomaly wrt 1961 - 1990
Source Mann et al., Eos, 84, 256-258, 2003
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What is Global Change?

• Global-scale changes that affect the functioning
  of the Earth System
• Much more than climate change
• Socio-economic as well as biophysical

For example, changes in

• Nitrogen fixation
• Temperature
• Biodiversity..

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What is Global Change?
For example, changes in

• Nitrogen fixation
• Temperature
• Biodiversity..

• Atmosphere composition
• Population
• N in the coastal zone
• Forest cover
• Fisheries exploitation

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Human influence seen from space
http//visibleearth.nasa.gov/images/1438/earth_lig
hts.jpg
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Night lights 2000
Source Nakicenovic et al., 2000, figure is on
page 233.
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Night lights 2070
Source Nakicenovic et al., 2000, figure is on
page 233.
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Researching the Earth system
Our approach to understanding the Earth
System has been to cut the big picture into
small pieces. Some of the pieces lack
detail, others are missing entirely - but
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Researching the Earth system
Earth System Science and sustainable development n
eed a systemic approach - someone needs to put
together the puzzle!
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IGBP Vision and Goal
The Vision of IGBP is to provide scientific
knowledge to improve the sustainability of the
living Earth.

• IGBP studies the interactions between
  biological, chemical and physical processes and
  human systems
• IGBP collaborates with other programmes to
  develop and impart the understanding necessary to
  respond to global change

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Value-adding Activities

• IGBP integrates a large number of contributing
  projects through
• design and implemention of international research
  frameworks agreed by the scientific community
• efficient strategies for resource allocation
• international networking, standardisation of
  methodologies, model intercomparisons, and
  syntheses

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Products

• Synthesis papers
• Journal special issues
• Books (e.g., IGBP Series)
• Science Plans
• Quarterly Newsletter
• Website
• Science Series
• Annual Report
• IGBP project brochures
• Press releases, events
• Email bulletin
• PowerPoint presentations
• Information sheets
• IGBP Directory

www.igbp.net
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Our Changing Planet
The IGBP and Project synthesis book series
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IGBP Synthesis Findings

• Biological processes play a much stronger role
  than previously thought in Earth System
  functioning
• Global change is more than climate change.Its
  real, its happening now and its accelerating
• The Earths dynamics are characterised by
  critical thresholds and abrupt changes
• Human activities drive multiple,
  interactingeffects that cascade through the
  EarthSystem in complex ways
• The Earth is currently operating in a no-analogue
  state

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The New IGBP

• 1999-2003 synthesis project, transition, and
  restructure

• 2004 new questions and structure, with a focus
  on
• biogeochemical sciences with relevance to issues
  of societal concern
• interdisciplinarity and integration
• Earth System context

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The IGBP Network
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The IGBP Network
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IMBERIntegrated Marine Biogeochemistry
Ecosystem Research Project
Investigating the sensitivity of marine
biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems to global
change

• Interactions between biogeochemical cycles and
  marine food webs
• Sensitivity to global changes
• Feedbacks to the Earth system
• Responses of society

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GLOBECGlobal Ocean Ecosystem DynamicsNatural
variability and human impacts
The goal of GLOBEC is to advance our
understanding of the global ocean ecosystem, its
major subsystems, and its response to physical
forcing in order to forecast responses to global
change. GLOBEC foci

• Retrospective analyses
• Process Studies
• Modelling
• Feedbacks to the human system

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LOICZLand - Ocean Interactions in the Coastal
Zone

• Vulnerability of coastal systems hazards to
  human societies
• Implications of global change land sea use on
  coastal development

• Anthropogenic influences on the river catchment
  coastal zone interaction
• Fate transformation of materials in coastal
  shelf waters
• Towards coastal system sustainability by managing
  land-ocean interactions

44 of the worlds population live within 150 km
of a coastline
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GLPGlobal Land Project

• The nature and causes of land system change.
• The consequences of land system change for
  ecosystem services and Earth System functioning.
• Support for sustainable use of land systems
  using integrated analysis and modelling.

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LUCCLand-Use and Land-Cover Change

• Global databases on recent land-cover changes
• Causes pathways of land-use change
• Modelling scenarios of future land change
• Transition towards sustainable land use

Geist and Lambin (2001)
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iLEAPSIntegrated Land Ecosystem - Atmosphere
Processes Study

• Land-atmosphere exchange of reactive and
  long-lived compounds Interactions and
  feedbacks
• Feedbacks between land biota, aerosols and
  atmospheric composition in the climate system
• Feedbacks and teleconnections in the land
  surface, vegetation, water, atmosphere system
• Transfer of material and energy in the soil,
  canopy, boundary layer system Measurements and
  modelling

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iLEAPSIntegrated Land Ecosystem - Atmosphere
Processes Study

• Land-atmosphere exchange of reactive and
  long-lived compounds Interactions and feedbacks
• Feedbacks between land biota, aerosols and
  atmospheric composition in the climate system
• Feedbacks and teleconnections in the land
  surface, vegetation, water, atmosphere system
• Transfer of material and energy in the soil,
  canopy, boundary layer system Measurements and
  modelling

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IGACInternational Global Atmospheric Chemistry

• The role of atmospheric chemistry in amplifying
  or damping climate change.
• The effects of changing regional emissions and
  depositions, long-range transport, and
  transformations on tropospheric chemical
  composition and air quality.

NASA
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SOLASSurface Ocean - Lower Atmosphere Study

• Biogeochemical interactions and feedbacks between
  ocean and atmosphere
• Exchange processes at the air-sea interface and
  the role of transport and transformations in
  atmospheric and ocean boundary layers
• Air-sea flux of CO2 and other long-lived
  radiatively active gases

SeaWIFS, NASA/GFSC ORBIMAGE
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PAGESPast Global Changes
The ice cap on Kilimanjaro is melting so fast it
may disappear by 2020

• Restructure (under development 2005)
• Present-Past liaison
• Regional variability
• Human dimension eg. HITE
• Hydrological Cycle
• Polar Regions
• Greenhouse gases
• Interglacial variability
• Ocean acidification

Thompson et al (2002)
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AIMESAnalysis, Integration and Modeling of the
Earth System

• Earth System modelling at various complexities
• Systems-level analysis and integration
• Formalisation of the human dimensions in the
  Earth System
• Institutional network
• Postdoc Network
• Earth System Atlas, C4MIP, GEIA, IHOPE, EPICA.

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Earth System Science PartnershipDIVERSITAS,
IGBP, IHDP, WCRP

• an integrated study of the Earth System,
• the changes occurring to the System, and
• the implications for global sustainability.

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Earth System Science Partnership
IRS
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Human Health(Under Development)

• Project Goals
• To determine the past, current, and future health
  impacts of global environmental change.

• To enrich the policy discussion about mitigation
  and adaption from a human health perspective.

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Carbon Cycle
http//www.globalcarbonproject.org/

• Patterns and variability what are the
  geographical and temporal patterns of carbon
  sources and sinks?
• Processes, controls and interactions what are
  the controls and feedback mechanisms - natural
  and anthropogenic - that determine the dynamics
  of the carbon cycle on scales of years to
  millennia?
• Management of the carbon cycle what are the
  future dynamics of the carbon-climate system and
  what are the points of intervention and windows
  of opportunity for managing this system?

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Water Resources

• What are the relative magnitudes of changes in
  the global water system (GWS) due to human
  activities and environmental factors?
• What are the social and Earth System feedbacks of
  human-driven change to the global water system?
• To what extent is the GWS resilient and adaptable
  to global change?

www.gwsp.org
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Food Systems

• A food-secure future for those most vulnerable to
  environmental stress
• How will global environmental change (GEC) affect
  the vulnerability of food systems in different
  regions?
• How can we adapt food systems to cope with GEC
  and improve food security?
• How will the various adaptation options feed back
  on environmental and socioeconomic conditions?

http//www.gecafs.org/
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Integrated Regional Studies

• assess the influence of regional processes on
  Earth System functioning (and vice-versa)
• be integrative (natural and social sciences, all
  components of the Earth System, planning to
  synthesis)
• contribute sound scientific understanding in
  support of sustainable development in the region
• be scientifically-driven by scientists in the
  region, with global collaboration

Ongoing activities in Monsoon Asia region,
possible new IRSs in Africa, Northern Eurasia
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Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in
Amazonia (LBA)

• 80 research groups - 600 scientists
• how does Amazonia function as a regional entity
  (e.g. water, energy, aerosol, carbon, nutrient
  and trace-gas cycles)?
• how will changes in land use and climate affect
  the biological, chemical and physical functioning
  of Amazonia, including its sustainability and
  influence on global climate?

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SysTem for Analysis Research and Training

• Develop a system of regional networks of
  collaborating scientists and institutions.
• Enhance scientific capacity in developing
  countries, by strengthening and connecting
  existing institutions, training global change
  scientists and improving their access to data and
  results.
• Help mobilise the resources required to augment
  existing global change scientific capabilities,
  infrastructure and activities in developing
  countries.

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Thank you
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