Transition Towns of New Zealand

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Transition Towns of New Zealand
August 2008
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What are Transition Towns?

• Transition Towns are
• community-based initiatives,
• facilitating the transition from a globalized
  oil dependent society to a
• re-localized society
• that will thrive in a world where there is less
  abundant cheap oil.

Over 40 New Zealand towns are already embracing
the Transition Towns model
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The Transition model

• Originated 2005 in Kinsale, Ireland
• Founder Rob Hopkins, background in Permaculture
• On from there worldwide
• Recognised globally by energy descent
  organisations
• Sumerset first transition council
• Similar initiatives, Relocalise.net similarly
  successful

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Whats driving that success?

• Most likely, people are drawn to TT due to an
  increasing awareness of the challenges arising
  from climate change and peak everything.
• Transition Towns respond to this vulnerability by
  empowering people to create their own solutions.

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Its getting hot in here

• Average temperatures have warmed about 0.75ºC
  over the last century. Much of this warmingabout
  0.4Chas occurred since 1979
• Scientists predict a 3C rise in temperatures
  could put 400 million more people at risk of
  hunger leave between one and three billion more
  people at risk of water stress cause cereal crop
  yields to fall by between 20 and 400 million
  tons and destroy half the world's nature
  reserves
• The question whether this is man-made or a
  natural occurrence is secondary in the face of
  the consequences

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..oils getting low..

• Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum
  rate of global petroleum production is reached,
  after which the rate of production enters its
  terminal decline.
• The questions is not if, but when this will
  occur.
• As oil becomes more scarce the oil price rises.
  This rise will be permanent and effect every area
  of life.

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its peak everything!

• Situation made worse through.
• Peak population

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Peak everything

• Situation made worse through.
• Peak population
• Peak fertilizer

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Peak everything

• Situation made worse through.
• Peak population
• Peak fertilizer
• Peak uranium

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Peak everything

• Situation made worse through.
• Peak population
• Peak fertilizer
• Peak uranium
• Peak debt

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Peak everything

• Situation made worse through.
• Peak population
• Peak fertilizer
• Peak uranium
• Peak debt
• Peak water

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Peak everything

• Situation made worse through.
• Peak population
• Peak fertilizer
• Peak uranium
• Peak debt
• Peak water
• Peak food

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Peak everything

• Situation made worse through.
• Peak population
• Peak fertilizer
• Peak uranium
• Peak debt
• Peak water
• Peak food
• and also peak psyche???

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Surely technology will save us?

• But with what.
• Biofuels? We have a choice, food or fuel.
• Nuclear? Difficult due to peak uranium, safety
  and cost.
• Hydrogen? Derivative, not substitute for oil
• Wind? Needs enormous areas of wind farms.
• Solar? Technology is advancing rapidly, but
  needs to be put in place
• Coal, tar sands? Likely to worsen climate
  change, bad EROEI

Develop Renewables (from Paul Mobbs)
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And would that really solve this?
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Four Assumptions

• Life with dramatically lower energy consumption
  is inevitable, and its better to plan for it.

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Four Assumptions

• Life with dramatically lower energy consumption
  is inevitable, and its better to plan for it...
• Our settlements and communities presently lack
  the resilience to enable them to weather the
  severe energy shocks that will accompany peak
  oil.

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Four Assumptions

• Life with dramatically lower energy consumption
  is inevitable, and its better to plan for it...
• Our settlements and communities presently lack
  the resilience to enable them to weather the
  severe energy shocks that will accompany peak
  oil.
• We have to act collectively, and we have to act
  immediately.

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Four Assumptions

• Life with dramatically lower energy consumption
  is inevitable, and its better to plan for it...
• Our settlements and communities presently lack
  the resilience to enable them to weather the
  severe energy shocks that will accompany peak
  oil.
• We have to act collectively, and we have to act
  immediately.
• We can build ways of living that are more
  connected, more enriching and that recognise the
  biological limits of our planet.

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The Community solution

• Community Resilience through
• Re-localisation and Energy Descent

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What does resilience mean?

• Less dependency on energy

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What does resilience mean?

• Less dependency on energy
• Less dependency on finite resources

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What does resilience mean?

• Less dependency on energy
• Less dependency on finite resources
• Financial independence

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What does resilience mean?

• Less dependency on energy
• Less dependency on finite resources
• Financial independence
• Food independence

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What does resilience mean?

• Less dependency on energy
• Less dependency on finite resources
• Financial independence
• Food independence
• Sustainable management of resources

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What does resilience mean?

• Less dependency on energy
• Less dependency on finite resources
• Financial independence
• Food independence
• Sustainable management of resources
• Ability to embrace change

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What does resilience mean?

• Less dependency on energy
• Less dependency on finite resources
• Financial independence
• Food independence
• Sustainable management of resources
• Ability to embrace change
• Resilient minds Happy healthy people

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Possible indicators of resilience

• percentage of food grown locally
• amount of local currency in circulation
• number of businesses locally owned
• average commuting distances for workers in the
  town
• average commuting distance for people living in
  the town but working outside it
• percentage of energy produced locally
• quantity of renewable building materials
• proportion of essential goods being manufactured
  locally
• proportion of compostable "waste" being returned
  to the soil

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How do TT achieve this?

• Raise awareness / build a critical mass (doing
  the job of the media)
• Positive vision for the future (for, not against)
• Inclusion (beyond the usual suspects)
• Open space (unleashing the collective genius)
• Early engagement with Council / Energy Descent
  Planning (together, not against)
• Psychological insights (beyond powerlessness,
  overwhelm and isolation)
• Credible appropriate solutions (beyond light
  bulbs)

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Transition examples

• Community gardens
• Food tree plantings
• Heart and Soul groups
• Energy groups
• Local currencies
• Permaculture courses

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Where are we now?

• October last year at the Eco Show
• Numerous email groups
• A national website hosting 40 local initiatives
  sites and a social networking site with 299
  members (join now to be No. 300!!)

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Where are we now?

• October last year at the Eco Show
• Numerous email groups
• A national website hosting 40 local initiatives
  sites and a social networking site
• Active TT initiatives across Aotearoa initiating
  local change

• TT Training programmes (Permaculture,
  Facilitation, TT processes)
• Networking, Support, Action on the ground
• Involvement from Ministers, scientists, local
  authorities, media

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Conclusion

• The world is going to change...
• it's going to happen anyway.
• We can imagine all kinds of outcomes, but we
  don't know what the future will look like.
• Our experience is defined by our imagination, our
  thoughts, words, deeds, fears, hopes, desires
  and our silence.
• Your imagination is the
• preview to lifes coming
• attractions
• - Albert Einstein