How Smart Growth

1
How Smart Growth Threatens the Future
Pathways to Sustainability RMLA
Conference Auckland Wendell Cox 6 October 2006
Mount Egmont Taranaki
2
Personal Background FROM FACTS TO POLICIES (NOT
PREFERENCES)
Opera
Etoile
Republique
Louvre
Chatelet
Eifel Tower
Bastille
Notre Dame
Gare de Lyon
3
NOT A BRIEF FOR SPRAWL LONE MOUNTAIN COMPACT
absent a material threat to other individuals
or the community, people should be allowed to
live and work where and how they like.
German Dream Leipzig
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1
2
3
4
5
6
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Sapporo, Japan
Democratising Prosperity How the Suburbs Made
Us Rich
Lisbon, Portugal
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A BROADER ISSUE The issue is not Land
use Cities The issue is Quality of Life Social
Equity Future of the Nation Economy Cohesion Af
fluence Poverty
Most of what you have heard about urban sprawl,
public transport smart growth is simply wrong.
7
Housing Still Affordable Open Markets MOST
METROPOLITAN AREAS IN CANADA USA
House Land from 180,000
St. Louis Suburbs July 30, 2006 On WC Walking
Route
8
Housing Affordability in New Zealand DEPTH OF
PROBLEM NOT UNDERSTOOD
Median House Price NZ
Auckland
Auckland _at_ Calgary Median Multiple
Auckland _at_ Atlanta Median Multiple
Auckland Actual
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Strangling Urban Land Markets THE POLICY
MECHANISMS OF SMART GROWTH

• Urban Growth Boundaries
• Mandatory Infill
• Mandatory Master Planning
• Parceling Out Land
• Planning Delays (Holding Costs)

Perth
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WHERE ARE THE ECONOMIC ANALYSES? economics
consists in looking not merely at the immediate
but at the longer effects of any act or policy
it consists in tracing the consequences of that
policy not merely for one group but for all
groups. (1946)
11
Every Economy has Rich Poor EXTENT OF POVERTY
IS THE DIFFERENCE
Rio de Janeiro Rich Poor
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Extent of Poverty Distinguishes Economies
INDONESIA NEW ZEALAND
Jakarta Rich Poor
13
World History is History of Poverty ECONOMIC
GROWTH SINCE 1900
GDP-PPP Per Capita 2000US (OECD)
New Zealand
Argentina
Asia
Latin America
US Poverty Threshold
Africa
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Competitive Intensity A Key LAND
USE POLICIES
15
THE OPEN CITY
Auckland
Democratisation of ProsperityASSOCIATED WITH
HOME OWNERSHIP
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Democratisation of ProsperityASSOCIATED WITH
ROADS PERSONAL MOBILITY
Chengdu, China (Google Earth)
THE OPEN CITY
University Of Paris Research
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Background Suburban World A Critique of Smart
Growth
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Urban Sprawl is SuburbanisationPLANNERS
CONFESSING THE SINS OF OTHERS
The Anti-Sprawl Theology DEMONIZING HOW PEOPLE
LIVE Urban sprawl Traffic sewers McMansions
Misleading less developed nations
Auckland
19
Christchurch
Adelaide
20
Paris Avenue de lopéra
The Myopia of Urban Planning FOCUSING ON THE
URBAN CORE
21
Tourist Paris is Not Paris HISTORY IS THE
DIFFERENCE
15th Most Sprawling World Urban Area (2,700 km2)
Employment 67 Outside Ville de Paris
Population 82 Outside Ville de Paris
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Paris Where the People Live FRENCH DREAM PARIS
SUBURBS
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It is a Suburban WorldNEARLY ALL URBAN GROWTH IS
SUBURBAN
Canada from 1951, US from 1950 Others from 1965
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Rapidly Declining Human Footprint 2 DECADES
AREA OF CANTERBURY MARLBOROUGH
NEW ZEALAND Enough land taken out of agriculture
to house more than 100 million at Auckland urban
densities
2003
1981
Agriculture 58
Agriculture 79
Urban Approx. 1
Urban Approx. 1
Outside Human Footprint 20
Outside Human Footprint 41
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New Zealand Crowded Isles? NO SHORTAGE OF LAND
? Urban 1.5
Canterbury Plain
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Urban Areas Historical Densities THERE IS NO
TURNING BACK
OTHERS 2000 Hong Kong 29,400 Osaka 6,400 Athens
5,400 Auckland 2,000
PARIS
LONDON
NEW YORK
Population per Square Kilometer
LOS ANGELES
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Suburbanisation Dilutes Congestion TRAFFIC
INTENSITY IN WORLD URBAN AREAS
Vehicle Hours/ Square Kilometer By
Population Density
Hong Kong
Generally low-density US has less traffic
congestion
28
Suburbs Reduced Travel TimesMETROPOLITAN NYC
BY JOB SECTOR COUNTY
Minutes (by work location)
CORE 40 of Jobs
INNER 27 of Jobs
OUTER 33 of Jobs
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More Suburbanisation Less Travel Time COMPACT
V. OPEN CITY SYDNEY AND ATLANTA
Minutes
Compact City Policies (Smart Growth)
Open City Policies
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Suburbs Less Travel Time EU-15 METROPOLITAN
AREAS OVER 750,000
Minutes
Work Trips (Jobs follow Residences)
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Smart Growth Slows Traffic Speeds SMART GROWTH
INTENSIFIES EMISSIONS
Los Angeles
? Grams Emitted _at_ 10C
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Automobile Pollution Reduction DRIVING UP,
POLLUTION TONNAGE DOWN 1970-2002
? GDP
? Driving
? Energy
? Population
? Pollution
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GHG Emission Reduction LAND USE STRATEGIES
INEFFECTIVE COSTLY
Back to the Cave Agenda
Double Urban Density -5 GHGs
Present Urban Density
United States
Toronto (Worlds Busiest Freeway)
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Jobs-Housing Balance MythTHE RECORD
Hong Kong Average Work Trip 7.7 KM
London New Towns Average work trip distance 2x
urban diameter
?Reason for Neighborhood Choice US Census Survey
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The Infill Time Bomb INFRASTRUCTURE NOT BUILT FOR
DENSITIES
36
Exaggerating Suburban CostsUS SUBURBS LESS
EXPENSIVE THAN CORES
gt700 USA Municipalities Fees/Capita 2000
Water
Sewer
Density 3.020
Density 1,880
Density 1,090
Density 800
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New Zealand Maori Home Ownership Rates Far
Below European
Berne, Switzerland
Impact on Minorities DISADVANTAGED BY SMART GROWTH
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The Sprawl-Obesity Disconnect OBESITY EXPLODES
WHILE DENSITIES INCREASE
Obesity
Calories/Person
Urban Density
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The Endless Litany ANTI-SUBURBANITES WILL SAY
ANYTHING
What if the new emission controls for cars are
producing even finer particles that could be more
deadly than old lead fuel because they lodge deep
in our body tissues including our brains? Tina
Perinotto, Australian Financial Review August
22, 2006
Central Athens
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The Spanish Dream BARCELONA
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Suburbanisation in Barcelona FAR BEYOND THE URBAN
CORE
Suburbs
Core
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It is a Suburban World THE JAPANESE DREAM TOKYO
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Low Density Urban Area PORTLAND SPRAWL DOUBLE
L.A.
Los Angeles
Portland Failing Nirvana Send
the Missionaries Home
Auckland
Wellington
Christchurch
Most Dense Urban Area in New World Anglo- sphere
Portland
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Portland Most Growth is Suburban METROPOLITAN
AREA 2000-2005
Core 0.8 Suburbs 11.8
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Portland Core Employment Falling DOWNTOWN
OTHER EMPLOYMENT 2001-2005
? Jobs
Outside CBD
CBD
Portland Suburbs
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Portland Housing Prices Up Most1990-2000
HOUSING MULTIPLE (US CENSUS)
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The Bloating Urban Growth BoundaryPORTLAND
REACHES 2040 36 YEARS EARLY
?Acres
Reality 2004 254,000 acres
Plan 2040 252,000 acres
2 VOTER REVOLTS Against Intensification For
Property Rights
Discontinuous ? Axis
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Falling Public Transport Work Trip Share BEFORE
AFTER LIGHT RAIL (PORTLAND) 1980-2005
4 Light Rail (Tram) Lines Opened
City of Portland
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Portland Traffic Worsened Considerably
1986-2001 30 MINUTE PEAK AUTO TRAVEL DISTANCE
Portland Transit Urban Consolidation
Houston Highways Natural Growth
2001
1986
2001
1986
From Worst to 14th Worst Congestion
Among Greatest Congestion Increases
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Perth
Public Transport The 5 Solution Platitudes And
Exaggerations
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Why Are These People Not on the Train? TORONTO
Why didnt the Commonwealth Government Pass Out
Public Transport Passes?
Don Valley Parkway Commuter Rail Toronto
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Employment Access by Transit Less PARIS NEW
TOWNS ONE HOUR JOURNEY
Automobile
Public Transport
Jobs Accessible
Not Accessible
Not Accessible
Jobs Accessible
All New Towns Served By RER Regional Metro
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Access to Rail Stations PARIS URBAN AREA
(AGGLOMERATION)
VILLE DE PARIS
SUBURBS
?Rail Access 100
Rail Access 5
Size of pies indicate relative urban land area
No Rail Access 95
Urbanization within 400 meters of rail stations
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Paris
Most large public transport systems
are overcrowded to the core
Public Transport is about the Central Business Di
strict AUTOMOBILE COMPETITIVE PUBLIC
TRANSPORT HAS NOT BEEN SERIOUSLY
PROPOSED ANYWHERE
The Open Challenge Design an Auto- Competitive Sy
stem
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30 Minute Travel Access From Suburban Residence
Public Transport Car Access Portland
Public Transport (Red Lines)
Auto (Green Area)
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Auto Competitive Public Transport PORTLAND
EXAMPLE 800 METER UNDERGROUND GRID
Annual Cost More than gross annual income
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There is No Public Transport Vision EXAMPLE
PORTLAND AREA
Increase Transit Travel
Increase Auto Travel
1990 Auto Transit Travel
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? Public Transport Work Trip Share
CBD
Overall Employment Share ?
Elsewhere
CBD
Elsewhere
Most Employment is Outside CBD AUCKLAND REGION
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Most Employment is Car Oriented SYDNEY
EMPLOYMENT CENTRES
CBD
? Public Transport Work Trip Share
CP
Overall Employment Share ?
Elsewhere
Norwest (Elsewhere)
CBD
Chatswood
Parramatta
Elsewhere
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Dominance of Personal Mobility (Auto) NO
MATERIAL REDUCTION IN ANY URBAN AREA
Paris Metro
Auto Market Share
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Portland
Business leaving or avoiding Portland
Eroding Competitiveness in Vancouver
Reality Dawns on Vancouver Portland NEW
PROPOSALS FOR HIGHWAY EXPANSION
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Munich, Germany
Smart Growth Threat to the New Zealand
Dream Planning Versus Future Generations
Montreal, Canada
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Auckland
MEDIAN MULTIPLE Median House Price Divided
by Median Household Income (Annual)
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Median Multiple by Market 2005MANY MARKETS
REMAIN AFFORDABLE
Fast Growing Affordable Atlanta Dallas-Fort
Worth Houston
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Median Multiple Trend United States BY MARKET
AFFORDABILITY 1995-2005
Severely Unaffordable Markets (2005)
Median House Price/Median Household ? Income
Paul Krugman The zoned zone ? The New York Times
Affordable Markets (2005)
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Land Rationing Raises Housing Prices UK US
RESEARCH
Housing price difference Between US markets Land
use regulation -Glaeser Gyourko (Harvard)
United Kingdom (Strong Land Rationing)
EU Outside UK (Little land rationing)
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Milan
ANDRES DUANY New Urbanist Architect There is NO
question that urban growth boundaries and that
elaborate environmental public processes
increase the cost of housing by creating
scarcity. (And dont tell me otherwise,
because I am not stupid, nor am I
inexperienced, nor do I have underdeveloped
powers of observation).
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Land Rationing Raises Land Prices EXAMPLE BASED
UPON PORTLAND
? Urban Growth Boundary
The 30-Year Land Supply Myth
Without Urban Growth Boundary ?
?Land Price Per Hectare
Distance from CBD ?
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Land Prices Escalating AUSTRALIAN AVERAGE
1993-2006
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It is Not Macroeconomics SAME INTEREST RATES
FINANCING IN ATLANTA
Interest Rate
Median House Price

• NZ Short
• Term Interest
• Rate (OCR)

Median House Price ?
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Sufficient Land Supply The Key HIGH DEMAND
ATLANTA, DFW HOUSTON AFFORDABLE
1990s Population Growth Australia, Canada,UK,
US Metropolitan Areas Over 3,000,000
Atlanta
Atlanta Adds a New ARC Population Every Decade
(gt1m) Median Multiple 2.8
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It is Not Demand HIGHEST DEMAND MARKETS IN US
CANADA
? Median Multiple
South Island
High Demand Markets
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Australia Consensus on Land Shortage SMART
GROWTH REDUCES AFFORDABILITY
Ian MacFarlane Governor, Reserve Bank (Ret.)
John Howard, Prime Minister
Peter Costello, Treasurer
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NZ Toward a Nation of Renters DEMOCRATISATION
IS NOT COMPLETE
? Home Ownership Rate
Auckland
?USA
Includes Homeownership In name
only Economic characteristics of renting
1991
2001
2006?
Future?
75
130,000 Fewer Owning Households EQUAL TO
HOUSEHOLDS IN CHRISTCHURCH
Reduction In Households Owning Homes 2006 Populati
on _at_ Loss 1991-2006 Rate
Households In Christchurch 2006
76
Impact on Household Budgets 40 YEAR CAREER 2005
V. 2001 PRICES AUCKLAND
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Land Regulations Stunt Economic Growth US
FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD RESEARCH
20 less job growth than expected in metropolitan
areas with strongest land use regulation -Raven
Saks Federal Reserve Board
Chicago
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US Domestic Migration 2000-2005 LEADING
INDICATOR OF ECONOMIC GROWTH
Nearly all low cost markets
Las Vegas Phoenix Sacramento
All have strong land use regulation (Examples LA,
SF, SD, NY, BOS, WDC
Trend is Accelerating
Metropolitan Areas Over 1,000,000
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Sydneys Smart Growth Stagnation NSW 8TH OUT OF
8 IN ECONOMIC GROWTH (GSP)
QLD
WA
NT
TAS/ACT
Austral
SA
VIC
NSW
80

• MORE TRAFFIC CONGESTION
• MORE INTENSE AIR POLLUTION
• LESS AFFLUENCE
• MORE POVERTY
• NOT SUSTAINABLE
• ECONOMICALLY
• POLITICALLY

Old Shenzhen
Smart Growth Summary DEGRADING THE STANDARD OF
LIVING
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Atlanta
The Open City Living in the Future Tense The
Universal Dream
Valencia, Spain
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The New Zealand Dream Has Become The Universal
Dream
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Restoring Inheritance A Big Price INTERGENERATION
AL INEQUITY
Perth
This may be a generation that may have to wait
to inherit property from their parents. Dr. Mark
Gibson, Murdoch University
84
Economic Growth is a Necessity FOR INTERNATIONAL
COMPETITIVENESS
Shenzhen
85
Economic Growth is a Necessity FOR SOCIAL
COHESION
Queenstown
The Moral Consequences of Economic
Growth Benjamin Friedman
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The Open City For the People THE GOAL
DEMOCRATISING PROSPERITY
Economic Growth Minimizes Poverty
Auckland
87
The Open City Home Ownership REPEAL REJECT
EXCESSIVE LAND REGULATION
Home Ownership Associated with Economic Growth
Focus on allowing, not prohibiting development
St. Louis
88
The Open City Mobility PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
ROADWAY CAPACITY
Greater Mobility Associated with Economic Growth
Cost per Reduced Delay Hour
89
What is not acceptable is not sustainable
Mobile, Alabama
Economic sustainability is a prerequisite
The Open City Environmental Protection THE
RECORD HISTORYS CLEANEST CITIES
90
PLANNING REFORM Back to Basics Not telling
people how to live Rather, facilitating life
styles people prefer
Peoples Route ? ?
Planners Route ? ?
Paris Suburbs
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WAR ON THE DREAM How Anti-Sprawl Policy
Threatens the Quality of Life By Wendell Cox The
universal dream of home ownership is associated
with unprecedented improvement in the quality of
life throughout the high-income world. Yet, there
is a war on the dream policies that seek to curb
urban sprawl (suburbanization). These policies
have been adopted with little debate, little
consideration of the economic consequences and
are rooted in faulty analysis. Development is
banned on large swaths of land, creating scarcity
and raising house prices, reducing home ownership
and accumulation of equity that creates so much
wealth. Roadway construction is halted, worsening
congestion and air pollution, justified by a
clueless dogma that imagines people can switch to
mass transit. These policies promise fewer jobs
and a heavy economic toll. Anti-suburban policies
must be rejected and repealed. This new volume
is an international primer on urban land and
transport policy. ________________________________
__________________________________________________
Introduction Policies Have Consequences Part
I SETTING THE STAGE Chapter 1 The Theology of
Urban Sprawl Chapter 2 The Broader
Context Chapter 3 Suburban World Chapter 4
Planning and the Post-War American City Part II
DEMONIZING THE SUBURBS Chapter 5 Hysteria over
Land Chapter 6 Missing the Transportation
Connections Chapter 7 Costs, Community, Obesity,
Fear, Ad Nausea  Part III WAR ON THE
DREAM Chapter 8 Rationing Land, Home Ownership,
and Opportunity Chapter 9 The Cost of Neglecting
Mobility Chapter 10 The High Price of Retail
Restrictions Chapter 11 Anti-Suburban
Dystopia Part IV SUSTAINABLE FUTURE
TENSE  Chapter 12 The Universal Dream