Prsentation PowerPoint

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9th WMO Conference on weather Modification
ANTALYA 2007
CLOUD CHARACTERIZATION OVER ATLAS MOUNTAINS
A. Mokssit (CAS mngmt group representative WM
voice), Rabia Merrouchi et L.GranaNational
Meteorological Service of Morocco, Casablanca
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Thanks

• To Turkish Governement and all staff of
  Metorological Departement for the arrangement and
  warm hospiltality
• To WMO secretariat mainly Len, Slobodan and
  Natalie for their continuous help and assistance

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OUTLINES

• Introduction
• Classification of weather situations affecting
  Morocco
• Cloud characterization over Atlas Mountains
• Seedability Criteria PEP 1982
• Case Study February, 15th 2004
• Conclusion

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Introduction

• Geographic position between 17N and 35N /
  16W to 02E.
• (subsaharien climat in the south of the country
  to temperate climat in the north)
• Four mountain chains barrier leading to
  different climatic features.
• an important coastal areas 3500km.
• (Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea)
• Important hydrographic resources

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Monthly normal of precipitations (1961-1990)
Introduction
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Introduction

• Water resources
• more than 100 big dams

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Weather Situations affecting Morocco
During winter season (november to april), most of
meteorological situations affecting Morocco
follows one of the two axes

• North-South during meridian atmospheric
  fluctuations
• West-East in case of zonal situations.

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Weather Situations affecting Morocco
As a consequence, 3 types of clouds had been
classified

• Stratiform clouds associated to West and
  North-West atmospheric flows with possibility to
  have embedded convection (C1)
• Convective single clouds associated to back cold
  front (ciel de traîne) (C2)
• Tropical air mass Clouds taken into South-Wetern
  flows (C3) .

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Weather Situations affecting Morocco
C 2
C 1
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Situations météorologiques affectant le Maroc
C1
C2
C3
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Cloud Characterization Over Atlas Mountains
Measurement campaign of 87-88 Target Area
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Cloud Characterization Over Atlas Mountains
Measurement campaign of 87-88 Equipments

• laboratory aircraft Citation II, University of
  North Dakota
• Second laboratory aircraft King Air 100
• Weather Radar (Doppler, bande C)
• Upper air observing station
• Surface synoptic meteorological stations
• Hydro-meteorological observing network (Rain
  gauges, flow measurements)
• Snow pack sampling (chemical laboratory
  analysis)
• Numerical atmospheric and statistical model

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Cloud Characterization Over Atlas Mountains
For 210 clouds episodes sampled with the 2
laboratory aircrafts
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Cloud Characterization over the Atlas Mountain
Chain
For 210 cloudy episodes sampled with the 2
laboratory aircrafts
70 of cloudy episodes with MLWC 0.1 g/m3 40
with an average exceeding 0.2 g/m3 50 presents
maximum values of MLWC 0.5 g/m3
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WMO P.E.P 1982
The clouds with strong potential of seedability
were defined by WMO in Spain

• LWC 0.1 g/m3 for a horizontal distance
  exceeding 10 Km or more than 0.3 g/m3 for smaller
  distance
• Persistence of the LWC values for more than 10
  minutes
• Vertical extension of the cloud 1km.

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Case Study Situation of February 15th 2004
In altitude presence in altitude (500 hPa) of a
Low geopotential system with a value at the
center of 5560 mgp associated to very cold air
(polar air)(-26C). This thermal and dynamic
minimum is moving quickly to the east of the
country Fast eastward motion. At surface at
the surface, we note the establishment of high
pressures by the south west of the country with
values of see level pressure of 1020
hPa. Convective cells and storming clouds were
observed over the northern half part of the
country with weak to moderate rain.
Champs de geopotentiels, températures et humidité
relative au niveau de pression 500 hPa prévus par
le modèle numérique national Al-Bachir le 15
février 2004 à 12h00
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Case Study Situation of February 15th 2004

• Aircraft Instruments
• T sensor
•  Td sensor
• LWC sensor
• FSSP, Forward-Scattering Spectrometer Probe
• (2 47 ?m)
• 2D-C, Cloud Particle Probe (25 et 800?m)
• 2D-P, Precipitation Probe (0,2 et 6,4mm)
• PCASP, Passive Cavity Spray Spectrometer Probe
  (0,1 et 3?m ).
•    

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Moyens communs avec la veille météo (Coûts
indirects)
Moyens propres à linsémination (Coûts directs )
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Case Study Situation of February 15th 2004

• General flight information
• Take off 10h53 .
• Flight duration 57 minutes.
• position radial 130, 50 km de Kénitra airport
• Clouds sampled Cu med et Cu congestus
• mean altitude of measurements 2968m (702 Hpa).
  
• Temperature  between 4.6C and 0C.

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Case Study Situation of February 15th 2004
Time evolution of Liquid Water content
during the flight of February 15th, 2004
indicating the four passages P1, P2, P3 et P4
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Case Study Situation of February 15th 2004
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Case Study Situation of February 15th 2004
FSSP concentration by cm3 of air
Mean Concentrations of cloud particles of the
first five diameter intervals as indicated by
the FSSP probe for the fourth passages
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Conclusion

• The cloud sampled belong to class C2 with the
  same characteristics even it s located near the
  coastal region. That allows possibility to handle
  operations.
• Necessity to repeat and maintain research effort
  to evaluate the seedability potential mainly in
  Climate Change Context
• Necessity to maintain Capacity building effort
  and scientific and technical watch
• Nessecity for scientific conpromise at
  international level particularly in CAS
• Support and endorsement of the WM trust fund by
  invitation to private sector, countries with
  potential to encourage research in order to reach
  consensus and then motivate more countries to
  implement WM program that insure research
  component (inspiration of the succes story of
  THORPEX trust fund)

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Purpose of the Fund

• Encourage research on weather modification, and
  provide guidance on available scientific
  knowledge about weather modification.
• Assist Member countries that request advise in
  practicing sound weather modification research.
• Support the organization of the quadrennial WMO
  Scientific Conference on Weather Modification,
  encouraging especially participation of
  scientists from developing countries and
  scientists new in the weather modification
  research.
• Supporting activities of the WMO Expert Team on
  Weather Modification (Expert Team Terms of
  Reference defined in CAS-XIV).

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Generalities

• WMO stat on WM recommand more research,
• In Developping countries operational project with
  research
• Research, training,capacity building need funds
• Absence of clear research strategy under WWRP
• Fund on the volountary basis no fund means no
  research no WM project following WMO statement.
• Danger
• - declinaison of WMO WM stat recommandation
  can provoque lack of confidence of the Decision
  makers in WM operational project which leads to
  stop modernization of some NHMSs in developing
  countries.
• the current level of modernization of
  NMSs of Morocco, Burkina, Senegal,.. Are due to
  WM project.
• - since research in WM (mainly in developing
  countries) need operational project as support
  this reseach will disapear if no funds

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• Thank you for your ATTENTION
• Mokssit
• Abdalah.mokssit_at_yahoo.fr

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• Establishment of a trust fund for WM
• - Weather modification activities in a number of
  WMO Member countries have been established in
  order to manage crisis due to drought, improve
  the economy through increase of water supply,
  protection agricultural products, etc. or by
  reducing the risks resulting from high impact
  weather (frost, fog, hail, etc.).
• Cg-XIV strongly recommended that such activities
  be supported by research and modelling that
  provides
• (a) a deeper understanding of the effects of
  cloud modification on cloud/precipitation
  development and
• (b) a scientifically accepted evaluation of
  the weather modification activities.
• Cg-XIV also encouraged Members to take into
  account economic, social, ecological and legal
  aspects when weather modification activities are
  applied.

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Cg-XIV recommended establishment of a trust fund
for support of the quadrennial WMO Scientific
Conference on Weather Modification and activities
of the WMO Expert Team on Weather Modification.
support training and guidelines for sound
scientific practices in weather modification and
operations. Cg-XIV asked Members and other
parties involved in weather modification to
contribute to the trust fund.
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