Economia delle ICT

1
Second International Seville Seminar on
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 28th-
29th September 2006 Impact of FTA activities in
implementing specific national RD programmes
from a NSI viewpoint some results from a survey
in Europe Monica Cariola National Research
Council of Italy Ceris?CNR Institute for
Economic Research on Firms and Growth
2
INTRODUCTION
This work analyses the main results of one of the
basic tasks on FTA activities of the European
project iMERA (implementing the Metrology
European Research Area) started in 2005, a
3-year project funded by the European Commission
within the ERA-NET scheme
Main purpose of iMERA to enable National
Governments to increase the National and European
impact of their research investments in Metrology
3

• Within the iMERA Project
• A specific task is aimed to provide an evaluation
  of
• the processes of metrology and technology
  foresight in Europe
• their impact on the national programmes for long
  term planning of metrological activities

4
Purpose to set the grounds for the post-iMERA
institutions, to create a common European
Foresight in order to harmonise procedures and
results .even if National Foresights can still
survive
5
Before iMERA Project
National Level
EUROMET
6
Post - iMERA
European Foresight
EUROMET
7

• 1 STEP
• a Survey on national foresight processes on
  Metrology RD in European Countries

8
Some data on the survey

• Questionnaire sent on July 2005 to all EUROMET
  members
• Responses from 19 countries (58) 14 partners, 5
  non-partners iMERA
• Metrology foresight studies/processes in their
  Country (as declared)

• Yes 14 (74 of respondents)
• No 3 (16)
• No, but.. 2 (10)

9

• Questionnaire structure
• Part A general questions focusing on Metrology
  Foresight (type a1), but listing also other
  relevant studies useful for long term planning
  (type a2) -Answers from all respondent Countries
• Part B specific questions related to metrology
  foresight (type a1) - (one questionnaire for each
  study listed in Part A), ranging from 1 to 7
  studies per Country
• Part C specific questions related to other
  foresight studies (type a3) - Answers from 9
  countries

10
Foresight studies/processes carried out or used
in each Country (as declared)
11
Methods used in Foresight (from I.Miles,
M.Keenan)
Group Method 1.
Identifying Issues a. Environmental
Scanning
b. SWOT Analysis
c. Issue
Surveys 2. Extrapolative Approaches a. Trend
Extrapolation
b. Simulation Modelling
c.
Genius Forecasting
d. Delphi 3. Creative
Approaches a. Brainstorming
b.
Expert Panels
c. Cross-Impact Analysis
d. Scenarios 4. Prioritisation
a. Critical (and Key)
Technologies
b. Technology Roadmapping
12
Part A - FTA relevant for metrology
Methodologies more used to assess needs arising
from

• Industrial/societal Developments

1. Environmental Scanning (88), mainly through
of stakeholders, CIPM studies and Other
Foresight studies 2. Expert Panels
(56)

• New areas

1. Environmental Scanning (73), mainly through
Consultation of stakeholders and other foresight
studies from industrial sectors 2. Genius
Forecasting (46)

• Longer term work on the SI

1. Environmental Scanning (62), mainly through
CIPM studies 2. Genius Forecasting (46).
13
Part B Specific Metrology Foresight studies

• NMIs participation in most of cases (80)
• Extent mainly National (72)
• Time horizon mainly 3-5 years (52), 6-10 yrs.
  (44)
• Scope mainly General (56), then by EUROMET TC
• Promotion mainly by Government/Ministry (44),
  then National Metrology organisation (40)
• Methodologies
• Environmental Scanning (57)
• Expert Panels (48)
• Brainstorming (44)
• Genius Forecasting (35)
• Frequency periodical/one-off (44 both) 0-3
  years ago (72)
• Outcomes mainly Papers/Reports (85), workshops
  (44)

14
Methods used in Foresight processes and direct
participation of NMIs
15
Perceived Impact of FTA Outcomes (1)

• Use of Foresight Outcomes for planning NMI
  activity
• Not very much (30)
• Very much and Sufficiently (both 22)
• Modification of NMI previous plans after
  Foresight
• Not very much (41)
• Sufficiently (30 )
• Use of Foresight Outcomes for national
  Prioritisation
• Yes, 81
• New scientific co-operations thanks to Foresight
• Sufficiently (36 )
• Not very much (32)
• Co-operations in new areas thanks to Foresight
• Not very much (32)
• Sufficiently and Much (both 27 )

16
Perceived Impact of FTA Outcomes (2)

• Foresight helpfulness for development of
  metrology in general
• Sufficiently (44 )
• Not very much (26)
• Foresight helpfulness for development of specific
  metrology fields
• Much (44 )
• Sufficiently (26)
• Foresight helpfulness for the policy maker
• Much (30 )
• Sufficiently (26)

17
Tentative classification of the reported
foresight studies

• True foresight studies - 17 from 11 countries
  (ranging from 1 to 4 per country)
• Activity plans/Forecasts elaborated by NMIs - 10
  from 6 countries (ranging from 1 to 3 per
  country)
• Market/Customer surveys - 3 from 2 countries
• Other foresight studies - 12 from 8 countries
• Specific research projects/feasibility studies -
  19 from one country
• Not classifiable in previous categories - 10 from
  3 countries

18
Some conclusions

• Large variety of national foresight processes
• Many reported studies have the characteristics of
  Forecasting and Strategic Planning rather than of
  formal Foresight exercises
• The questionnaire itself has had an acknowledged
  learning effect
• Central role of NMI motivated experts, but
  occasion for NMIs to increase their opening
  outwards

19

• The Need for a joint European Metrology Foresight
  is confirmed
• but has to be improved.
• internal knowledge of foresight processes
• their impact on RD programmes
• most effective way to conduct FTA
• networks between NMIs, Stakeholders and
  Governments, inside and outside the Countries