Title: US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
1US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
Mark V. LomannoPresidentSMITH TRAVEL RESEARCH
2Total United StatesRoom Supply/Demand Percent
ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average 1989 to
March 2008
5.1
4.0
4.2
1.6
1.1
0.6
- 4.8
3Total United StatesOccupancy/ADR Percent
ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average 1989 to
March 2008
7.6
6.8
5.5
-0.6
4Total United StatesRoom Rate Percent ChangeJan
2003 March 2008
5Total United StatesRevPAR Percent ChangeTwelve
Month Moving Average 1989 to March 2008
June 06 9.3
Feb 01 6.5
4.9
6Total United StatesQuarterly RevPar Percent
Change
7U.S. IndustryWeekday/Weekend Occupancy
ChangeNovember 2007 February 2008
Weekdays Sunday - Thursday
8Total U.S.Occupancy and ADR Percent ChangeYTD
through 4/19
9Pennsylvania - Key StatisticsDecember 2007 YTD
- Change
- Hotels 1,368 1.5
- Room Supply 128k 1.7
- Room Demand 79k 2.7
- Occupancy 62.1 1.0
- A.D.R. 100.46 6.1
- RevPAR 62.39 7.1
- Room Revenue 2.9B 9.0
10Pennsylvania - Key StatisticsQ1 2008
- Change
- Daily Room Supply 129.3k 2.1
- Daily Room Demand 66.6k 0.0
- Occupancy 51.5 - 2.0
- A.D.R. 97.79 4.7
- RevPAR 50.38 2.5
- Room Revenue 586mm 4.7
11PennsylvaniaKey Performance Indicators Percent
ChangeYTD March
12Occupancy Percent Pennsylvania MarketsYTD March
2008
43.9
49.3
52.6
51.5
52.6
59.2
39.4
13Occupancy Percent Change Pennsylvania MarketsYTD
March 2008
-0.3
0.4
-0.3
-0.5
1.5
-6.2
4.9
14ADR () Pennsylvania MarketsYTD March 2008
73.74
98.42
81.23
81.83
95.27
119.54
76.91
15ADR Percent Change Pennsylvania MarketsYTD March
2008
5.9
-3.1
6.0
4.7
3.4
7.1
5.7
16RevPAR Percent Change Pennsylvania MarketsYTD
March 2008
5.6
-2.7
5.7
4.1
4.9
0.5
10.8
17Chain Scales
18STR Chain ScalesSelected chains from each segment
- Luxury Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton, Fairmont
- Upper Upscale Embassy, Hilton, Marriott,
Sheraton - Upscale Residence Inn, Hilton Garden Inn,
Courtyard - Mid with FB Quality Inn, Holiday Inn, Ramada
- Mid no FB Comfort Inn, Hampton Inn, HI Express
- Economy Econolodge, Red Roof, Days Inn
19STR - U.S. Chain ScalesLTM February 2008 Room
Revenue Share
Total Room Revenue 108 Billion
20Selected Chain Scales 12 Month Moving Average -
Demand Index (Jan 2000 100) January 2000
August 2001
Then Visible Drop in Demand in UU Scale
Top-Down Recession
21Selected Chain Scales12 Month Moving Average -
ADR Index (Jan 2000 100) January 2000 August
2001
Then Visible Drop in ADR in Higher End Scales
22Selected Chain Scales 12 Month Moving Average
Demand Index (Jan 2006 100) January 2006
February 2008
Now No Slowing In Demand For Upper End Bottom
Up Recession?
23Selected Chain Scales 12 Month Moving Average -
ADR Index (Jan 2006 100) January 2006
February 2008
Now No Slowing in Rate Growth
24U.S. Market Performance
25Top 25 Markets vs. All Other Markets12 Month
Moving Average Demand Index (Jan 2000 100)
January 2000 August 2001
Then Visible Drop in Demand in Top 25 Markets
26Top 25 Markets vs. All Other Markets12 Month
Moving Average - ADR Index (Jan 2000 100)
January 2000 August 2001
Then Visible Drop in ADR in Top 25 Markets
27Top 25 Markets vs. All Other Markets 12 Month
Moving Average - Demand Index (Jan 2006 100)
January 2006 February 2008
Now Demand for Top 25 Markets basically Flat
28Top 25 Markets vs. All Other Markets 12 Month
Moving Average - ADR Index (Jan 2006 100)
January 2006 February 2008
Now ADR Currently Strong Across The Board
29Exchange Rate Impact on 2007 ADR Change
America Is On Sale!
30U.S. Pipeline
31Total United StatesActive Development Pipeline -
RoomsChange From Prior Year
Feb 2008 Feb 2007 Change
Chg In Construction 198,244
171,413 26,831 15.7 Active
Pipeline 648,882 541,723
107,159 19.8
Source STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline
32Average Lengths Under Construction (Months)For
Hotels Opening That Year
Slight Increase in Construction Time Over Last 2
Years
Source STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline
33Total United StatesAnnual Rooms Closed and 3
Year Moving Average1990 2007
34Projections
35U.S. Economic OutlookBlue Chip Economic
Indicators April 2008
- 2007 2008F 2009F
- Real GDP 2.2 1.4 2.2
- CPI 2.9 3.5 2.4
- Corporate Profits 2.7
-2.7 5.2 - Disp Personal Income 3.1 2.1 2.1
- Unemployment Rate 4.6 5.3 5.6
36Total U.S.Supply/Demand Percent Change2002
2008P
37Total U.S.Occupancy Percent Change2002 2008P
20 Year Average -0.1
38Total USOccupancy Percent2002 2008P
39Total U.S.ADR Percent Change2002 2008P
20 Year Average 3.5
40Total U.S.RevPAR Percent Change2002 2008P
20 Year Average 3.4
412008 Lodging Industry Takeaways
- Accelerating Supply Growth Pipeline Attrition?
- Slowing Economy Slower Demand Growth
- Top Markets may outperform
- Weak Dollar U.S. Bargain
- Leisure feels greater impact than business?
- Revenue Management Discipline?
42(No Transcript)