Title: LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
1LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
Randy SmithCEO
2The World
3Global Regions Asia Pacific/AmericasMarket
Performance (US Dollars)August 2009 Year-to-Date
4Global Regions Europe/Mid East/AfricaMarket
Performance (US Dollars)August 2009 Year-to-Date
5World US / Eurozone / BRIC Demand Percent
Change 12 Month Moving AverageJuly 2009 YTD
-6.0
-8.0
-10.3
US / EU in Lockstep BRIC Falls Hard
6World US / Eurozone / BRIC ADR Percent Change
(US/BRIC / EU)12 Month Moving AverageJuly
2009 YTD
-5.1
--5.5
-12.5
Proj. Inflation Rate 2009US 0.7, Eurozone
0.5 India 6.0 China -0.5, Brazil 5,
Russia 12
Beijing Olympics Helped
7World US / EU / BRIC ADR Percent Change
(US/BRIC / EU)July 2009 YTD
Olympics 8/08 56
-9.1
-13.0
Global Deterioration 10/08
-24.3
Stabilization?
Are We Done Yet?
8Europe
9Eurozone vs. Non EurozoneDemand Percent Change
12 Month Moving AverageJuly 2009 YTD
-5.8
-8.0
Eurozone Demand Fell Earlier / More Sharply
10Eurozone vs. Non EurozoneADR Percent Change 12
Month Moving AverageJuly 2009 YTD
-13.0
-18.6
Proj. Inflation Rate 2009Eurozone 0.5
Non-Eurozone 2.3
ADR Deterioration More Pronounced In Non-Eurozone
11Europe Germany / UK / France
12Europe Germany / UK / FranceDemand Percent
Change 12 Month Moving AverageJuly 2009 YTD
-3.0
--3.8
-6.5
France excl. Accor
Same Inflection Point Same Direction
13Europe Germany / UK / FranceADR Percent
Change (D/F , UK ) 12 Month Moving
AverageJuly 2009 YTD
-2.7
-3.8
-4.6
France excl. Accor
Proj. Inflation Rate 2009D 0.3 UK 1.9 F
0.3
Rates Declined only in 2009
14EuropeMarket Performance (Local Currency)August
2009 Year-to-Date
Note No,I Do Not Expect You To Read This!
(particularly Don)
15EuropeMarket Performance (US Dollars)August
2009 Year-to-Date
16Europe - Pipeline
17Middle East
18Saudi Arabia vs UAE vs QatarDemand Percent
Change 12 Month Moving AverageJuly 2009 YTD
2.3
1.0
-0.9
Qatar Used To Hold Up Better
19Saudi Arabia (SAR) vs UAE (AED) vs Qatar
(QAR)ADR Percent Change 12 Month Moving
AverageJuly 2009 YTD
12.0
10.6
-7.8
Proj. Inflation Rate 2009Saudi Arabia 5.1
Strong ADR Growth - But is UAE The Future?
20Middle East Pipeline
21Middle East / AfricaMarket Performance (Local
Currency)August 2009 Year-to-Date
22Middle East / AfricaMarket Performance (US
Dollars)August 2009 Year-to-Date
23Americas/Asia Pacific Markets
24AmericasMarket Performance (Local
Currency)August 2009 Year-to-Date
25AmericasMarket Performance (US Dollars)August
2009 Year-to-Date
26Asia / PacificMarket Performance (Local
Currency)August 2009 Year-to-Date
27Asia / PacificMarket Performance (US
Dollars)August 2009 Year-to-Date
28Census and Sample Data
29United States
30Total US - Room Supply Demand Percent
ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average 1989 to
August 2009
3.1
-1.1
- 6.6
- 4.8
2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
31Total United StatesRoom Supply/Demand Percent
ChangeMonthly Year-Over-Year 2001 August 2009
3.2
-6.9
32Total United StatesRoom Supply Percent
ChangeJan 2003 August 2009
3.2
33Total United StatesRoom Demand Percent
ChangeJan 2003 August 2009
-6.9
34Total United StatesMonthly Room Demand (In
Millions) Seasonally AdjustedJanuary 2001
to Aug 2009
78.6
2009 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
35Total US Occupancy ADR Percent ChangeTwelve
Month Moving Average 1989 to August 2009
0.1
-4.7
-6.3
-3.4
-6.8
-9.4
36Total United StatesOccupancy / ADR Percent
ChangeMonthly Year-Over-Year 2001 August 2009
Occ -9.9
-ADR -10.1
37Total United StatesOccupancy Percent ChangeJan
2003 August 2009
-9.9
38Total United StatesMonthly ADR Seasonally
Adjusted January 2001 to Aug 2009
106.69
95.86
2009 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
39Total United StatesRoom Rate Percent ChangeJan
2003 August 2009
-10.1
40Total US - RevPAR Percent ChangeTwelve Month
Moving Average 1989 to August 2009
-10.5
-15.1
2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
41Total United StatesRevPAR Percent ChangeJan
2003 August 2009
-19.0
42Total US - Key Performance Indicators Percent
ChangeFull Year 2008 / August YTD
43Total United StatesWeekday / Weekend Percent
ChangeSeptember 12th 2009 YTD
Weekends Friday / Saturday
2009 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
44Total United States28 Day Moving Average -
Occupancy ADR ChangeJan 1, 2009 Sept 26,
2009
1/3/09
9/26/09
2009 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
45 Group vs. Transient Performance
46Group - Occupancy / ADR PerformanceWeekday /
WeekendAugust 2009 YTD
2009 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
47Transient - Occupancy / ADR PerformanceWeekday /
WeekendAugust 2009 YTD
2009 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
48Total United States28 Day Moving Average Group
Transient Demand ChangeJan 31, 2008
September 12th, 2009
49Total United States28 Day Moving Average Group
Transient ADR ChangeJan 31, 2008 September
12th, 2009
50Total United States28 Day Moving Average Group
Transient Absolute ADRJan 31, 2008 September
12th, 2009
51 Chain Scale Performance
52Chain ScalesSupply/Demand Percent ChangeAugust
2009 YTD
53Chain ScalesOccupancy/ADR Percent ChangeAugust
2009 YTD
54Chain ScalesRevPAR/Room Revenue Percent
ChangeAugust 2009 YTD
55 Key Market Performance
56Key MarketsRoom Supply Percent ChangeAugust
2009 YTD
57Key MarketsRoom Demand Percent ChangeAugust
2009 YTD
58Key MarketsOccupancy Percent ChangeAugust 2009
YTD
59Key MarketsADR Percent ChangeAugust 2009 YTD
60Key 15 MarketsRevPAR Percent ChangeAugust 2009
YTD
61U.S. Lodging Industry Projections
62Global GDP Forecast
The Future Looks Bright(er)
Source E-Forecasting
63Total United StatesActive Development Pipeline -
RoomsChange From Last Year
Source STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline
64Total United StatesRooms In Construction by
Scale In Thousands August 2009
Source STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline
65Top 10 Brands in the Active PipelineAugust 2009
- Brand Rooms
- --------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------- - Hampton Inn 33,028
- Holiday Inn Express 32,460
- Holiday Inn 20,782
- Courtyard 16,830
- Hilton Garden Inn 15,816
- Candlewood Suites 14,889
- Residence Inn 13,218
- Fairfield Inn 13,160
- SpringHill Suites 13,143
- Staybridge Suites 11,185
-
- Includes Inns and Inns Suites
Source STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline
66Markets with Most Rooms In-ConstructionAugust
2009
- Market Rooms Existing
Supply - New York 11,921 13.2
- Las Vegas 7,011 4.4
- Houston
4,681 6.9 - Washington, DC 4,064 4.0
- Orlando 3,563 3.1
- Phoenix 3,288 5.6
- Atlanta 3,204 3.4
-
Source STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline
67Total United StatesSupply/Demand Percent
Change2003 2010P
68Total United StatesRoom Demand Percent
ChangeJan 2003 June 2009 / July December
Forecast
2009 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
69Total United StatesOccupancy Percent Change2003
2010P
20 Year Average -0.6
70Total United StatesOccupancy Percent2003
2010P
71Total United StatesADR Percent Change2003
2010P
20 Year Average 3.5
72Total US Room Rates Actual vs. Inflation
Adjusted 2000 2010E
If year 2000 ADR had increased by CPI each year
73Total United StatesRevPAR Percent Change2003
2010P
20 Year Average 2.9
74Total United StatesKey Performance Indicators
Percent ChangeFull Year 2009 2010 Forecast
75STR Chain Scale Forecast
2009 2010 Segment RevPar Chg
RevPar Chg Luxury
-25.0 / -28.0 -7.0 / -10.0 Upper
Upscale -18.0 / -21.0 -1.0 /
-4.0 Upscale -16.0 / -19.0
-5.0 / -8.0 Midscale with FB -12.5 /
-15.5 -3.0 / -6.0 Midscale without
FB -10.5 / -13.5 1.0 /
-2.0 Economy -13.0 / -16.0
Flat / -3.0
Forecast produced August 2009
76Total US Industry Consecutive Quarterly
DeclinesKey Indicators
2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
77Takeaways
- Decline is global
- Supply growth still an issue
- Demand declines may be near bottom
- ADR weakness continues
- Less Worse 2H 2009
- Moderate improvement 2010
- Meaningful growth anticipated 2011
78For a copy of this presentation, please go to
www.HotelNewsNow.comClick on Industry
Presentations
79Total United StatesSupply, Demand Occupancy
ForecastQ3 2009 Q4 2010
2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
80Total United StatesADR, RevPar and Room Revenue
ForecastQ3 2009 Q4 2010
2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
81U.S. Economic OutlookBlue Chip Economic
Indicators July 2009
- 2008 2009F 2010F
- Real GDP 1.1 -2.6 2.0
- CPI 4.0 -0.6 1.8
- Corporate Profits -8.5 -12.4 6.7
- Disp Personal Income 1.1 2.3 1.6
- Unemployment Rate 5.8 9.3 9.9
82Total United States28 Day Moving Average Group
Transient Revenue ChangeJan 31, 2008
September 12th, 2009
83Europe Scandinavia / Baltics
84Europe Scandinavia / BalticsDemand Percent
Change 12 Month Moving AverageJune 2009 YTD
Sharp Demand Decline In The Baltics
85Europe Scandinavia / BalticsADR Percent Change
() 12 Month Moving AverageJune 2009 YTD
Baltics No ADR Growth in 18 months