LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

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Eurozone vs. Non Eurozone. Demand Percent Change 12 Month Moving ... Non-Eurozone: 2.3% -13.0 -18.6. Europe Germany / UK / France 0.5% 379. France 2.3 ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW


1
LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
Randy SmithCEO
2
The World
3
Global Regions Asia Pacific/AmericasMarket
Performance (US Dollars)August 2009 Year-to-Date
4
Global Regions Europe/Mid East/AfricaMarket
Performance (US Dollars)August 2009 Year-to-Date
5
World US / Eurozone / BRIC Demand Percent
Change 12 Month Moving AverageJuly 2009 YTD
-6.0
-8.0
-10.3
US / EU in Lockstep BRIC Falls Hard
6
World US / Eurozone / BRIC ADR Percent Change
(US/BRIC / EU)12 Month Moving AverageJuly
2009 YTD
-5.1
--5.5
-12.5
Proj. Inflation Rate 2009US 0.7, Eurozone
0.5 India 6.0 China -0.5, Brazil 5,
Russia 12
Beijing Olympics Helped
7
World US / EU / BRIC ADR Percent Change
(US/BRIC / EU)July 2009 YTD
Olympics 8/08 56
-9.1
-13.0
Global Deterioration 10/08
-24.3
Stabilization?
Are We Done Yet?
8
Europe
9
Eurozone vs. Non EurozoneDemand Percent Change
12 Month Moving AverageJuly 2009 YTD
-5.8
-8.0
Eurozone Demand Fell Earlier / More Sharply
10
Eurozone vs. Non EurozoneADR Percent Change 12
Month Moving AverageJuly 2009 YTD
-13.0
-18.6
Proj. Inflation Rate 2009Eurozone 0.5
Non-Eurozone 2.3
ADR Deterioration More Pronounced In Non-Eurozone
11
Europe Germany / UK / France

12
Europe Germany / UK / FranceDemand Percent
Change 12 Month Moving AverageJuly 2009 YTD
-3.0
--3.8
-6.5
France excl. Accor
Same Inflection Point Same Direction
13
Europe Germany / UK / FranceADR Percent
Change (D/F , UK ) 12 Month Moving
AverageJuly 2009 YTD
-2.7
-3.8
-4.6
France excl. Accor
Proj. Inflation Rate 2009D 0.3 UK 1.9 F
0.3
Rates Declined only in 2009
14
EuropeMarket Performance (Local Currency)August
2009 Year-to-Date
Note No,I Do Not Expect You To Read This!
(particularly Don)
15
EuropeMarket Performance (US Dollars)August
2009 Year-to-Date
16
Europe - Pipeline
17
Middle East
18
Saudi Arabia vs UAE vs QatarDemand Percent
Change 12 Month Moving AverageJuly 2009 YTD
2.3
1.0
-0.9
Qatar Used To Hold Up Better
19
Saudi Arabia (SAR) vs UAE (AED) vs Qatar
(QAR)ADR Percent Change 12 Month Moving
AverageJuly 2009 YTD
12.0
10.6
-7.8
Proj. Inflation Rate 2009Saudi Arabia 5.1
Strong ADR Growth - But is UAE The Future?
20
Middle East Pipeline
21
Middle East / AfricaMarket Performance (Local
Currency)August 2009 Year-to-Date
22
Middle East / AfricaMarket Performance (US
Dollars)August 2009 Year-to-Date
23
Americas/Asia Pacific Markets
24
AmericasMarket Performance (Local
Currency)August 2009 Year-to-Date
25
AmericasMarket Performance (US Dollars)August
2009 Year-to-Date
26
Asia / PacificMarket Performance (Local
Currency)August 2009 Year-to-Date
27
Asia / PacificMarket Performance (US
Dollars)August 2009 Year-to-Date
28
Census and Sample Data
29
United States
30
Total US - Room Supply Demand Percent
ChangeTwelve Month Moving Average 1989 to
August 2009
3.1
-1.1
- 6.6
- 4.8
2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
31
Total United StatesRoom Supply/Demand Percent
ChangeMonthly Year-Over-Year 2001 August 2009
3.2
-6.9
32
Total United StatesRoom Supply Percent
ChangeJan 2003 August 2009
3.2
33
Total United StatesRoom Demand Percent
ChangeJan 2003 August 2009
-6.9
34
Total United StatesMonthly Room Demand (In
Millions) Seasonally AdjustedJanuary 2001
to Aug 2009
78.6
2009 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
35
Total US Occupancy ADR Percent ChangeTwelve
Month Moving Average 1989 to August 2009
0.1
-4.7
-6.3
-3.4
-6.8
-9.4
36
Total United StatesOccupancy / ADR Percent
ChangeMonthly Year-Over-Year 2001 August 2009
Occ -9.9
-ADR -10.1
37
Total United StatesOccupancy Percent ChangeJan
2003 August 2009
-9.9
38
Total United StatesMonthly ADR Seasonally
Adjusted January 2001 to Aug 2009
106.69
95.86
2009 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
39
Total United StatesRoom Rate Percent ChangeJan
2003 August 2009
-10.1
40
Total US - RevPAR Percent ChangeTwelve Month
Moving Average 1989 to August 2009
-10.5
-15.1
2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
41
Total United StatesRevPAR Percent ChangeJan
2003 August 2009
-19.0
42
Total US - Key Performance Indicators Percent
ChangeFull Year 2008 / August YTD
43
Total United StatesWeekday / Weekend Percent
ChangeSeptember 12th 2009 YTD
Weekends Friday / Saturday
2009 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
44
Total United States28 Day Moving Average -
Occupancy ADR ChangeJan 1, 2009 Sept 26,
2009
1/3/09
9/26/09
2009 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
45
Group vs. Transient Performance
46
Group - Occupancy / ADR PerformanceWeekday /
WeekendAugust 2009 YTD
2009 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
47
Transient - Occupancy / ADR PerformanceWeekday /
WeekendAugust 2009 YTD
2009 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
48
Total United States28 Day Moving Average Group
Transient Demand ChangeJan 31, 2008
September 12th, 2009
49
Total United States28 Day Moving Average Group
Transient ADR ChangeJan 31, 2008 September
12th, 2009
50
Total United States28 Day Moving Average Group
Transient Absolute ADRJan 31, 2008 September
12th, 2009
51
Chain Scale Performance
52
Chain ScalesSupply/Demand Percent ChangeAugust
2009 YTD
53
Chain ScalesOccupancy/ADR Percent ChangeAugust
2009 YTD
54
Chain ScalesRevPAR/Room Revenue Percent
ChangeAugust 2009 YTD
55
Key Market Performance
56
Key MarketsRoom Supply Percent ChangeAugust
2009 YTD
57
Key MarketsRoom Demand Percent ChangeAugust
2009 YTD
58
Key MarketsOccupancy Percent ChangeAugust 2009
YTD
59
Key MarketsADR Percent ChangeAugust 2009 YTD
60
Key 15 MarketsRevPAR Percent ChangeAugust 2009
YTD
61
U.S. Lodging Industry Projections
62
Global GDP Forecast
The Future Looks Bright(er)
Source E-Forecasting
63
Total United StatesActive Development Pipeline -
RoomsChange From Last Year
Source STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline
64
Total United StatesRooms In Construction by
Scale In Thousands August 2009
Source STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline
65
Top 10 Brands in the Active PipelineAugust 2009
  • Brand Rooms
  • --------------------------------------------------
    -----------------------------------------
  • Hampton Inn 33,028
  • Holiday Inn Express 32,460
  • Holiday Inn 20,782
  • Courtyard 16,830
  • Hilton Garden Inn 15,816
  • Candlewood Suites 14,889
  • Residence Inn 13,218
  • Fairfield Inn 13,160
  • SpringHill Suites 13,143
  • Staybridge Suites 11,185
  • Includes Inns and Inns Suites

Source STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline
66
Markets with Most Rooms In-ConstructionAugust
2009
  • Market Rooms Existing
    Supply
  • New York 11,921 13.2
  • Las Vegas 7,011 4.4
  • Houston
    4,681 6.9
  • Washington, DC 4,064 4.0
  • Orlando 3,563 3.1
  • Phoenix 3,288 5.6
  • Atlanta 3,204 3.4

Source STR / TWR / Dodge Construction Pipeline
67
Total United StatesSupply/Demand Percent
Change2003 2010P
68
Total United StatesRoom Demand Percent
ChangeJan 2003 June 2009 / July December
Forecast
2009 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
69
Total United StatesOccupancy Percent Change2003
2010P
20 Year Average -0.6
70
Total United StatesOccupancy Percent2003
2010P
71
Total United StatesADR Percent Change2003
2010P
20 Year Average 3.5
72
Total US Room Rates Actual vs. Inflation
Adjusted 2000 2010E
If year 2000 ADR had increased by CPI each year
73
Total United StatesRevPAR Percent Change2003
2010P
20 Year Average 2.9
74
Total United StatesKey Performance Indicators
Percent ChangeFull Year 2009 2010 Forecast
75
STR Chain Scale Forecast
2009 2010 Segment RevPar Chg
RevPar Chg Luxury
-25.0 / -28.0 -7.0 / -10.0 Upper
Upscale -18.0 / -21.0 -1.0 /
-4.0 Upscale -16.0 / -19.0
-5.0 / -8.0 Midscale with FB -12.5 /
-15.5 -3.0 / -6.0 Midscale without
FB -10.5 / -13.5 1.0 /
-2.0 Economy -13.0 / -16.0
Flat / -3.0
Forecast produced August 2009
76
Total US Industry Consecutive Quarterly
DeclinesKey Indicators
2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
77
Takeaways
  • Decline is global
  • Supply growth still an issue
  • Demand declines may be near bottom
  • ADR weakness continues
  • Less Worse 2H 2009
  • Moderate improvement 2010
  • Meaningful growth anticipated 2011

78
For a copy of this presentation, please go to
www.HotelNewsNow.comClick on Industry
Presentations
79
Total United StatesSupply, Demand Occupancy
ForecastQ3 2009 Q4 2010
2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
80
Total United StatesADR, RevPar and Room Revenue
ForecastQ3 2009 Q4 2010
2008 Smith Travel Research, Inc.
81
U.S. Economic OutlookBlue Chip Economic
Indicators July 2009
  • 2008 2009F 2010F
  • Real GDP 1.1 -2.6 2.0
  • CPI 4.0 -0.6 1.8
  • Corporate Profits -8.5 -12.4 6.7
  • Disp Personal Income 1.1 2.3 1.6
  • Unemployment Rate 5.8 9.3 9.9

82
Total United States28 Day Moving Average Group
Transient Revenue ChangeJan 31, 2008
September 12th, 2009
83
Europe Scandinavia / Baltics

84
Europe Scandinavia / BalticsDemand Percent
Change 12 Month Moving AverageJune 2009 YTD
Sharp Demand Decline In The Baltics
85
Europe Scandinavia / BalticsADR Percent Change
() 12 Month Moving AverageJune 2009 YTD
Baltics No ADR Growth in 18 months
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