Climate scenarios for the built environment:

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Climate scenarios for the built
environment BETWIXT and CRANIUM Clare
Goodess Climatic Research Unit, UEA With thanks
to Colin Harpham, Phil Jones, Craig Wallace,
Matthew Watts
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Built EnvironmenT Weather scenarios for
investigation of Impacts and eXTremes (BETWIXT)

• Aim
• To provide detailed state-of-art UK climate
  scenarios and support their use by other BKCC
  projects
• Description
• Modify and improve weather generators and
  information on storm track and wind changes
• Develop and apply the Generalised Neyman-Scott
  Rectangular Pulses (GNSRP) model for construction
  of specialised rainfall scenarios
• Model the impacts of urban land surfaces and
  heat sources on urban climate

GNSRP rainfall model- the basis for RainClim
BETWIXT is part of the Building Knowledge for a
Changing Climate initiative, led by EPSRC and
UKCIP
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The CRU daily weather generator
1 Paisley 2 Eskdalemuir 3 Ringway 4
Bradford 5 Coltishall 6 Hemsby 7 Elmdon 8
Heathrow 9 Gatwick 10 Yeovilton
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CRU weather generator is stochastic

• 100 simulations is optimal
• We present range across 100 simulations in
  figures
• For the time series, we provide a representative
  run (i.e., from middle of distribution) but
  others can be provided on request

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BETWIXT scenarios

• Control period (1961-1990)
• For each emissions scenario (low, medium-low,
  medium-high, high), three future time periods
  2020s, 2050s, 2080s, i.e., 12 series per station
• Clickable tables on public web site for
  downloading station series and figures
• www.cru.uea.ac.uk/projects/betwixt

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BETWIXT maintains consistency with UKCIP02

• By using change factors calculated from the
  same HadRM3H simulations as used to produce the
  UKCIP02 spatial patterns
• By using UKCIP02 multiplying factors

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Climate change Risk Assessment New Impact and
Uncertainty Methods (CRANIUM)

• Aim
• To develop new methods for analysing uncertainty
  and making robust risk-based decisions for
  infrastructure design and management in the face
  of climate change
• Description
• Analyse uncertainty in UK regional climate
  scenarios for built environment, transport and
  utilities
• Simulate system response to uncertain climate
  scenarios
• Address decision-making under severe uncertainty
  
• Match methods for decision-making to the context
  of various climate-related decisions

Flooding of railway tracks
CRANIUM is part of the Building Knowledge for a
Changing Climate initiative, led by EPSRC and
UKCIP
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CRANIUM Climate change Risk Assessment New
Impact and Uncertainty Methods

• First point location daily probabilistic
  scenarios of extremes for UK
• Based on state-of-art European RCMs
• Demonstration that weather generator can be
  linked with RCM output in a probabilistic
  framework

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The CRANIUM methodology
Change in T P 2071-2100
100 x 30 yr runs
Weather generator
RCM 1
39,000
Weather generator
RCM 13

• Histograms, PDFs, CDFs etc
• 10 BKCC case-study locations
• 2080s Medium-high scenario
• 10 seasonal indices
• means
• extremes
• e.g., hot days, intense rainfall

HIRHAM HIRHAM (ECHAM4) HadRM3P CHRM CLM REMO RCAO
RCAO (ECHAM4) PROMES RegCM RACMO Arpege
(HadCM3) Arpege (Arpege)
13 RCM runs from PRUDENCE http//prudence.dmi.dk/
10 RCMs Forcing from 4 GCMs Most driven by
HadAM3 All A2 (Medium-high) emissions
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Building Knowledge for a Changing Climate
Probabilistic scenarios for Ringway (Manchester)
2080s, Medium-high emissions scenario
Hot days
Fraction intense events
Longest dry period
Black baseline, Coloured lines RCMs, Red
ensemble average
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New probabilistic scenarios for Coltishall in the
2080s assuming a medium-high emissions scenario
hotter summers
fewer frosts
longer droughts
????
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New probabilistic scenarios for Coltishall in the
2080s assuming a medium-high emissions scenario

• 52 chance of 5-15 fewer cold nights in spring
• 84 chance of 2-5C rise in maximum summer
  temperature
• 87 chance of up to 15 day longer summer dry
  period
• 50 chance autumn rainfall increasing by up to
  100
• 90 chance of average summer day-time
  temperatures as high or higher than 1976 -
  and a 52 chance that summers will be as dry or
  dryer than 1976

hotter summers
fewer frosts
longer droughts
????
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CRANIUM Climate change Risk Assessment New
Impact and Uncertainty Methods

• Tables of figures
• Non-technical background information, including
  assumptions etc.
• Descriptive summary of results
• Briefing note and questions
• Powerpoint presentations
• Alternative forms of presentation
• PDFs, CDFs, percentiles, classes, thresholds

www.cru.uea.ac.uk/projects/cranium
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CRANIUM Climate change Risk Assessment New
Impact and Uncertainty Methods

• These are conditional scenarios, i.e.,
  conditional on a particular greenhouse gas
  emissions scenario
• Thus they do not incorporate uncertainties in
  emissions or climate sensitivity
• The ensemble averages are un-weighted - i.e.,
  they do not take any account of differences in
  GCM/RCM performance for the present day
• The scenarios show the paramount influence of
  uncertainty in the driving GCM, rather than the
  choice of RCM
• They also reflect intra-model variability (for
  local downscaling)

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CRANIUM Climate change Risk Assessment New
Impact and Uncertainty Methods
Ongoing work in ENSEMBLES weighting, comparison
with RCM output
But, how useful are the CRANIUM scenarios for
studying the impacts of climate change on the
built environment, infrastructure and utilities?