Are we ready for probabilistic scenarios

1
Are we ready for probabilistic scenarios?

• Alan Pearman
• Centre for Decision Research
• University of Leeds
• a.d.pearman_at_leeds.ac.uk

2

• Are we ready for probabilistic scenarios in the
  built environment sector?
• In general, no, but we need to be.
• If a question isn't asked, then often it isn't
  answered.
• In significant sections of the built environment
  sector, the climate change question currently
  isn't asked or, if it is, only in a rather
  general way.

3

• To change behaviour, there needs to be a growing
  focus on influencing decisions about individual
  (capital) projects in a way that acknowledges
  climate change and the uncertainties surrounding
  it.
• How, at a range of decision making scales/levels,
  do we prompt the questioning? And ensure that the
  scientific understanding embedded in the
  scenarios is available in a form that users find
  relevant to their needs?

4

• We must recognise that we have to address a range
  of user communities, with different needs,
  different time and analytical resource
  constraints and different problems to solve.
• It is not simply a scientific/engineering
  challenge, but also one, e.g., of communication,
  of understanding organisational culture and
  politics, and of providing support to decision
  makers that matches their needs.

5

• For example, many climate-sensitive decisions are
  public or quasi-public they are often devolved
  to local implementation.
• For audit-trail and public governance reasons,
  among others, there must be a demonstrable degree
  of consistency between them.
• Also, a recognition that implementation will
  frequently be by non-specialists.

6

• Factors that encourage the use of probabilistic
  scenarios include demonstrating the importance of
  responding to climate change to the financial
  bottom line, a whole-life costing approach that
  brings capital budgets and running costs into the
  same decision making framework, and education at
  university and post-experience levels.
• The professional bodies have a potentially
  important role to play in spreading good
  practice.
• In the shorter term, the presence of a
  'sustainability champion' in an organisation
  (officially appointed or otherwise) can be an
  important influence.

7

• The developing range of probabilistic scenarios
  are a valuable resource, but to get full value
  from the investment of effort, we must work hard
  with user communities to 'translate' and
  communicate scientifically excellent work into
  formats that respond to user needs