Special Report on Emission Scenarios

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• Dear user,
• Thank you for the outreach you are undertaking
  for the IPCC Special Report on Carbon dioxide
  Capture and Storage! This note contains some
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• With kind regards,
• Bert Metz and Ogunlade Davidson, co-chairs WGIII

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The IPCC Special Report on Carbon dioxide
Capture and Storage

• Your name
• Your institute
• Date, place

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About IPCC

• Founded 1988 by UNEP and WMO
• No research, no monitoring, no recommendations
• Only assessment of peer-reviewed literature
• Authors academic, industrial and NGO experts
• Reviews by independent Experts and Governments
• Policy relevant, but NOT policy prescriptive
• Full report and technical summary accepted by
  governments without change
• Summary for policymakers government approval

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IPCC Secretariat WMO/UNEP
IPCC chair
IPCC Bureau
Working Group I Science WGI co-chairs
Working Group III Mitigation WGIII co-chairs
Working Group II Impacts and adaptation WGII
co-chairs
Task force on National GHG Inventories NGGIP
co-chairs
Technical Support Unit USA
Technical Support Unit Japan
Technical Support Unit UK
Technical Support Unit Netherlands
Experts, Authors, Contributors, Reviewers
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About this report

• Approved by IPCC in September 2005
• Published December 2005
• Written by over 100 authors from 30 countries ,
  all continents
• Extensively reviewed by over 200 experts
• Presented at UNFCCC COP-11/ Kyoto COP/MOP-1 in
  Montreal

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Key issues addressed in this presentation

• What is CO2 capture and storage?
• How could CCS play a role in mitigating climate
  change?
• Maturity of the technology
• Sources of CO2 and potential reservoirs
• Cost and potential
• Health safety and environment risks
• Legal and regulatory issues

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CO2 capture and storage system
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How could CCS play a role in mitigating climate
change?

• Part of a portfolio of mitigation options
• Reduce overall mitigation costs by incresing
  flexibility in achieving greenhouse gas emission
  reductions
• Application in developing countries important
• Energy requirements point of attention

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Energy requirements

• Additional energy use of 10 - 40 (for same
  output)
• Capture efficiency 85 - 95
• Net CO2 reduction 80 - 90
• Assuming safe storage

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Maturity of CCS technology

• Research phase means that the basic science is
  understood, but the technology is currently in
  the stage of conceptual design or testing at the
  laboratory or bench scale, and has not been
  demonstrated in a pilot plant.
• Demonstration phase means that the technology has
  been built and operated at the scale of a pilot
  plant, but further development is required before
  the technology is ready for the design and
  construction of a full-scale system.
• Economically feasible under specific conditions
  means that the technology is well understood and
  used in selected commercial applications, such as
  in case of a favourable tax regime or a niche
  market, processing at least 0.1 MtCO2/yr , with
  few (less than 5) replications of the technology.
• Mature market means that the technology is now in
  operation with multiple replications of the
  commercial-scale technology worldwide.

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Maturity of CCS technology
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Qualifying CO2 sources

• Large stationary point sources
• High CO2 concentration in the waste, flue gas or
  by-product stream (purity)
• Pressure of CO2 stream
• Distance from suitable storage sites

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Global large stationary CO2 sources
withemissions of more than 0.1 MtCO2/year
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Capture of CO2
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Capture of CO2
Source IPCC SRCCS
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Examples of existing CO2 capture installations
(Courtesy of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries)
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Planned and current locations of geological
storage
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Current locations of geological storage
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Geological storage
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Ocean storage
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Mineral carbonation
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Geographical relationship between sources and
storage opportunities
Global distribution of large stationary sources
of CO2 (Based on a compilation of publicly
available information on global emission sources,
IEA GHG 2002)
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Geographical relationship between sources and
storage opportunities
Prospective areas in sedimentary basins where
suitable saline formations, oil or gas fields, or
coal beds may be found. Locations for storage in
coal beds are only partly included. Prospectivity
is a qualitative assessment of the likelihood
that a suitable storage location is present in a
given area based on the available information.
This figure should be taken as a guide only,
because it is based on partial data, the quality
of which may vary from region to region, and
which may change over time and with new
information (Courtesy of Geoscience Australia).
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Costs

• Two ways of expressing costs
• Additional electricity costs
• Energy policymaking community
• CO2 avoidance costs
• Climate policymaking community

Different outcomes 0.01 - 0.05 US/kWh 20 -
270 US/tCO2 avoided (with EOR 0 240 US/tCO2
avoided) low-end capture-ready, low transport
cost, revenues from storage 360 MtCO2/yr
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CCS component costs
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Economic potential
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Economic potential

• Cost reduction of climate change stabilisation
  30 or more
• Most scenario studies role of CCS increases over
  the course of the century
• Substantial application above CO2 price of 25-30
  US/tCO2
• 15 to 55 of the cumulative mitigation effort
  worldwide until 2100
• 220 - 2,200 GtCO2 cumulatively up to 2100,
  depending on the baseline scenario, stabilisation
  level (450 - 750 ppmv), cost assumptions

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Storage potential

• Geological storage likely at least about 2,000
  GtCO2 in geological formations
• "Likely" is a probability between 66 and 90.
• Ocean storage on the order of thousands of
  GtCO2, depending on environmental constraints
• Mineral carbonation can currently not be
  determined
• Industrial uses Not much net reduction of CO2
  emissions

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Technical and economic potential

• It is likely that the technical potential for
  geological storage is sufficient to cover the
  high end of the economic potential range, but for
  specific regions, this may not be true.
• "Likely" is a probability between 66 and 90.

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Health, safety, environment risks

• In general lack of real data, so comparison with
  current operations
• CO2 pipelines similar to or lower than those
  posed by hydrocarbon pipelines
• Geological storage
• appropriate site selection, a monitoring program
  to detect problems, a regulatory system,
  remediation methods to stop or control CO2
  releases if they arise
• comparable to risks of current activities
  (natural gas storage, EOR, disposal of acid gas)

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Health, safety, environment risks potential
leakage from geological reservoirs and remediation
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Health, safety, environment risks trapping
mechanisms for geological storage
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Health, safety, environment risks

• Ocean storage
• pH change
• Mortality of ocean organisms
• Ecosystem consequences
• Chronic effects unknown
• Mineral carbonation
• Mining and disposal of resulting products
• Some of it may be re-used

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Ocean Storage
100

• Impacts
• pH change
• Mortality of ocean organisms
• Ecosystem consequences
• Chronic effects unknown

80
20,000 ppm
5000 ppm
60
40
20
0
Change population
-20
-40
Change of bacteria, nanobenthos and meiobenthos
abundace after exposure to 20,000 and 5,000 ppm
for 77-375 hrs during experiments carried out at
2000 m depth in NW Pacific
-60
-80
-100
lt10 mm
10-30 mm
Meibenthos
Nanobenthos
Bacteria
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Will leakage compromise CCS as a climate change
mitigation option?

• Fraction retained in appropriately selected and
  managed geological reservoirs is
• very likely to exceed 99 over 100 years, and
• is likely to exceed 99 over 1,000 years.
• "Likely" is a probability between 66 and 90,
  "very likely" of 90 to 99
• Release of CO2 from ocean storage would be
  gradual over hundreds of years
• Sufficient?

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What are the legal and regulatory issues for
implementing CO2 storage?

• Onshore national regulation
• Few legal or regulatory frameworks for long-term
  CO2 storage liabilities
• Offshore international treaties
• OSPAR (regional), London Convention
• Ocean storage and sub-seabed geological storage
• Unclear whether or under what conditions CO2
  injection is compatible with international law

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