Climate Change and Official Statistics The Way Forward

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Climate Change and Official StatisticsThe Way
Forward

• Peter Harper
• Deputy Australian Statistician
• Australian Bureau of Statistics

International Conference on Climate Change,
Development and Official Statistics in the
Asia-Pacific Region, Seoul, December 2008
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Background

• 2008 UNSC meeting asked for a programme review
  into climate change statistics
• ABS to prepare review
• Draft agenda for action from Oslo Conference used
  as basis for recommendations
• Subsequent consultation, including Seoul
  Conference
• Report back to 2009 UNSC meeting
• Agreement on actions and priorities

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Review objectives

• Mainstream the climate change aspect of official
  statistics, which basically means mainstreaming
  environment statistics in general.
• Encourage NSOs to proactively engage in providing
  statistical services to support climate change
  analysis
• Encourage greater international engagement of
  official statistics with international climate
  change activities.
• Obtain agreement on a programme of activity for
  UNSD and other international agencies to support
  the global statistical effort on climate change
  and to enhance national capacity

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The mandate for official statistics

• Climate change is caused by economic and social
  pressures
• Climate change has economic and social, as well
  as environmental impacts
• Official statistics can provide information on
  these economic and social pressures and impacts
• Official statistics can provide relevant
  classifications and standards
• Official statistics can lead the integration of
  economic, social and environmental data

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The role of official statistics

• To provide the best available data for climate
  change analysis, including relevant statistical
  data for input into models
• To undertake relevant statistical analysis to
  inform climate change issues
• To ensure that climate change aspects are
  considered in the development and maintenance of
  statistical standards and that these standards
  are promulgated outside official statistics
• To develop and advocate statistical tools for the
  integration of economic, social and environment
  information to inform climate change issues.

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Scope of climate change related official
statistics

• Many existing official statistics are relevant to
  climate change
• But there is a need to consider whether these
  could be more useful for climate change analysis
• There may also be statistical gaps that need
  filling environmental, economic or social
• There is a need for better frameworks to describe
  climate change related statistics

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Recommendation I

• The environment, and climate change in
  particular, dimensions should be mainstreamed in
  official statistics and the capability of
  countries to produce high quality basic
  statistics following standard concepts and
  classifications should be strengthened

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Actions

• This work should be built into the work programme
  of the UN Statistical Commission and should be
  carried out as part of the ongoing revision of
  the different statistical programmes, standards
  and classifications and as part of the programme
  on capacity building. The relevant international
  agency should take the lead responsibility for
  revising the statistical programmes, standards
  and classifications. Statistical standards
  should be informed by and bridge those used by
  UNFCCC and IPCC.
• Priority should be given to the development of a
  land use/land cover classification with a
  strategy to be devised by the UNCEEA, in
  consultation with the London Group and with FAO.
• Other areas of priority are energy statistics and
  energy use statistics, which are being considered
  by the Oslo group.

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Recommendation II

• The use of official statistics for scenario
  development and modelling should be improved and
  promoted

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Action

• There is a need for a dialogue between the
  scientists and the official statistical community
  to enhance the usage, and improve the usefulness,
  of official statistics for scenario development
  and modelling. It is recommended that the UN
  Statistical Commission urgently initiates a
  dialogue with IPCC in order to improve the use of
  official statistics in future assessments of
  climate change, scenarios and modelling. It may
  want to appoint a small Committee to affect this.

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Recommendation III

• The availability, quality and timeliness of
  greenhouse gas emission estimates should be
  improved through the provision of high quality
  official statistics for the calculations the role
  of official statistics in the production of
  emission inventories should be strengthened

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Action

• In view of their importance to national policy,
  statistics on emissions should become part of the
  regular production and dissemination process of
  official statistics at national level with
  appropriate institutional arrangements, even if
  the NSOs are not the formal reporting agency to
  the UNFCCC or the publisher at the national
  level. As part of this initiative, there is a
  need for improving knowledge of NSOs on the links
  between activity statistics and emissions of
  greenhouse gases. The initiative for greater
  involvement has to come from the NSOs themselves.
  To facilitate this, it is proposed that a
  Working Group be set up to look into these issues
  and, in particular, how to best develop the
  knowledge base of national statistical offices in
  this area, especially in developing countries.
  Collaboration with UNFCCC is essential.

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Recommendation IV

• The analysis of the impacts of climate change and
  vulnerability to climate change should be
  supported by the exchange and discussion of good
  practices

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Action

• To improve the support to the analysis of the
  impacts of, vulnerability and adaptation to
  climate change, the major task is to pull up
  examples from the world and learn about them by
  establishing a knowledge base on new approaches,
  to gather, compile and share experience.
  Therefore it is recommended that an electronic
  platform by one of the UN agencies is set up for
  the dissemination of good practices and an
  international forum (regular expert group
  meetings or workshops) is established for their
  discussion. With support from UNSD, UNCEEA should
  agree on a program of work to support this work

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Recommendation V

• The statistical standards associated with funds
  and mechanisms should be reviewed

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Action

• Government Finance Statistics should provide
  sufficient disaggregation to allow for analysis
  of Governments responses to climate change,
  especially mitigation and adaptation strategies.
  The IMF is responsible for the Government Finance
  statistics classification but they should work
  with UNCEEA on any revisions to the existing
  classification. The UNFCCC classifications
  should be a starting point for deciding what
  changes are needed.

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Recommendation VI

• The monitoring of emission trading schemes and
  other mitigation measures should be supported by
  the advanced analysis of existing tools and by
  developing new statistics

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Actions

• It is proposed that the London Group on
  Environmental Economic Accounting includes this
  work in their agenda with the objective of
  identifying how NSOs might be able to best
  assist.
• It is likely that the forms of assistance will
  vary from country to country. As with
  Recommendation IV, there should be some exchange
  and discussion of good practices. The UNSD
  should coordinate this.

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Recommendation VII

• The implications for the national accounts and
  other key macroeconomic statistics of emission
  trading schemes should be assessed

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Action

• The ISWGNA should review the implications for the
  National Accounts of existing and prospective
  emission trading schemes and whether any
  adjustments to the SNA or explanatory material
  are needed. These adjustments should flow
  through to other macro-economic standards as
  necessary.

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Recommendation VIII

• UNSD should develop further and implement the
  System of Integrated Environmental-Economic
  Accounting as an international statistical
  standard

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Action

• The areas for development in SEEA to support
  climate change analysis need to be identified.
  This should be a priority of UNCEEA who should
  also oversee the development strategy and
  subsequent work. The development strategy should
  consider country training needs.

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Recommendation IX

• National statistical offices could support the
  analysis of climate change through the
  publication of a set of well selected variables,
  that are possible to collect and provide a clear
  picture, both in physical and monetary terms, of
  the impacts of climate change and efforts to
  combat climate change

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Action

• It is proposed that a set of standard statistical
  tables that countries could choose to produce as
  appropriate to their circumstances be developed.
  The UNSD should lead this effort under the
  guidance of UNCEEA.

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Recommendation X

• The analysis of the adaptation strategies should
  be supported by the exchange and discussion of
  good practices

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Action

• To improve the support to the analysis of
  adaptation strategies, the major task is to pull
  up examples from the world and learn about them
  by establishing a knowledge base on new
  approaches, to gather, compile and share
  experience. Therefore, consistent with
  Recommendation IV, it is recommended that an
  electronic platform is set up for the
  dissemination of good practices and an
  international forum (regular expert group
  meetings or workshops) is established for their
  discussion. With support from UNSD, UNCEEA should
  agree on a programme of work to support this.

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Recommendation XI

• The use of Geographic Information Systems and
  other spatial data infrastructure for the spatial
  analysis of official statistics should be
  improved and promoted

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Action

• UNSD should engage all the stakeholders within
  the UN system to initiate this process as soon as
  possible. Responsibilities and specific actions
  will have to be determined. Some suggested
  activities for consideration include
• workshops on the development of spatial
  frameworks and the coding systems that need to be
  established to support these frameworks
• building on existing Census based workshops on
  the utilization of GIS systems to cover their use
  for analysis of climate change, and
• developing a module on the use of spatial
  frameworks and GIS systems for the analysis of
  climate change for training workshops on
  environment statistics.

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Recommendation XII

• Indicators at the national level for advocacy and
  to convey messages should be considered

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Action

• UNCEEA should identify potential climate change
  indicators that might be derived from SEEA and
  other sources. These might be able to be added to
  existing national and international indicator
  sets.

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Recommendation XIII

• NSOs should exchange practices and experiences
  with the provision of data to support modelling
  of climate change impacts, mitigation and
  adaptation policies on the macroeconomy

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Action

• This should be done through the electronic
  platform discussed in previous recommendations
  and possibly the occasional workshop.

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Recommendation XIV

• A structure for the organisation of climate
  change statistics should be developed and agreed

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Action

• The UNSD, in consultation with UNCEEA, should
  take the lead on this. The IPCC classification of
  impacts, mitigation and adaption policies could
  be used as the starting point.

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Recommendation XV

• It is recommended that the name, mandate, terms
  of reference and membership of the UNCEEA and its
  Bureau be amended and extended and that this
  Committee be trusted with the governance of the
  statistical tasks related to climate change
  including engagement with, UNFCC, IPCC and other
  stakeholders.

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Action

• One of the earliest tasks of the Committee should
  be to develop, in consultation with UNSD, an
  Implementation Strategy, with agreed outputs,
  timelines and assigned responsibilities, for the
  agreed recommendations

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Timing and priorities

• To do everything would require a lot of work,
  both internationally and within countries
• Some of the work has already commenced, however
• There is a need to prioritise

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Short-term -- immediate

• Devise a strategy for Land use/Land Cover
  statistics.
• Initiate a dialogue with the IPCC in order to
  improve the use of official statistics for
  scenario development and modelling.
• Improve the provision of official statistics to
  support the estimate of greenhouse gas emissions
  and liaise with the UNFCCC to encourage their
  support. Support the analysis of climate change,
  vulnerability and adaptation by the exchange and
  discussion of good practice.
• Review the implications for the national accounts
  for emission trading schemes
• Continue to further develop and implement the
  System of Integrated Environmental-Economic
  Accounting as an international standard.
• Improve and promote the use of Geographic
  Information Systems and Spatial Data
  Infrastructure for spatial analysis.
• Develop a model set of indicators.

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Medium term as soon as possible

• Review sectoral statistics to assess whether our
  statistical standards require updating to reflect
  the importance of environment and climate change
  analysis.
• Produce relevant statistics for the use of the
  IPCC for its scenario development work in its
  Fifth Assessment Round.
• Review Government Finance Statistics
  classifications to ensure they support climate
  change analysis.
• Support the monitoring of emission trading
  schemes and other mitigation measures by the
  advanced analysis of existing tools and by
  developing new statistics.
• Develop a model set of tables.
• Improve indicators at the national level to
  convey messages.
• Identify data to best support climate change
  modelling.
• Develop a framework for the organisation of
  climate change statistics.

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Long-term

• Implementation strategy for introducing revised
  standards