Strategies for preventing terrorism

1
Strategies for preventing terrorism

• Lecture by
• Tore Bjørgo
• Professor of Police Science
• Norwegian Police University College
• Senior Research Fellow
• Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
  (NUPI)

2
Main strategies for preventingterrorism

• Incapacitation of (potential) terrorists by
  removing their capacities for carrying out action
• Deterrence by threat of retaliation or punishment
• Averting planned terrorist attacks
• Situational prevention by increasing
  difficulties, costs and risks, and reducing the
  rewards and excuses for carrying out terrorist
  attacks
• Social and political prevention by reducing root
  causes and motivations for violent radicalisation
• Disengagement from terrorism making individuals
  and groups discontinue their involvement in
  terrorism

Dato
Tittel
3
Principles and inclinations

• The same measure may effect several different
  mechanisms and be part of several strategies
  simultaneously. Detention may e.g. be a means in
  the strategies of incapacitation, deterrence and
  averting.
• Preventive actors tend to select their strategies
  and measures on the basis of their own capacities
  and political/cultural values.
• Some actors have a strong preference for one
  single strategy as the only effective one.
  However, different strategies may and should
  complement each other.
• Some strategies may also undermine other
  strategies, e.g. kill or capture vs. winning
  hearts and minds.
• Threat Capacity X Intention

4
Incapacitation

• Mechanism Kill or capture, removing the
  capacity of violent actors to make more damage
• Actors Military forces, police, prison services
• Measures (Violent) force, detention
• Advantages
• Effective when taking key activists and groups
  with limited membership out of action
• Governments usually possess relevant capacities
• Limitations and negative side effects
• May have limited effects in groups with a high
  recruitment and a strong social basis
• May reinforce recruitment and extremism
• Repression may undermine human rights and the
  moral legitimacy of the state

5
Deterrence

• Mechanism Increasing the costs of terrorism by
  (threat of) punishment / retaliation to reduce
  motivation
• Actors Criminal justice system, military force,
  death squadrons
• Measures Repression, violent force, punishment,
  media attention, economic and diplomatic
  sanctions
• Advantages
• May be particularly effective towards state
  sponsors of terrorism
• Popular! May increase support public support of
  the government
• Limitations and negative side effects
• Limited effects towards highly motivated
  terrorists, in particular suicide terrorists
• Difficult to strike at actors which can not be
  located
• May easily hit innocent third parties
  (collateral damage), e.g. family members of
  suicide terrorists
• May turn the state into a mirror image of the
  terrorists
• May reinforce the spiral of violence without
  addressing root causes
• May play into the hands of terrorists, making
  governments respond in ways where they weaken and
  undermine themselves

6
Averting planned terrorist attacks

• Mechanism Preventing terrorists from carrying
  through prepared attacks by disclosing and
  stopping them in advance
• Actors Intelligence and security agencies,
  police, the public, news media
• Measures
• Intelligence, in particular HUMINT
• Apprehending terrorist before they act
• Security controls
• Information sharing between agencies
• Information to the public
• Advantages
• Targeted and concrete, saving lives, reducing
  suffering
• High legitimacy, reinforcing confidence in the
  police and government
• May break a potential cycle and escalation of
  violence
• Limitations and negative side effects
• Innocent people may become targets of
  surveillance and arrests
• Danger of stigmatising ethnic and religious
  minorities
• Risk of striking too early for conviction or too
  late to prevent disaster
• Requires highly competent personnel to interpret
  intelligence data correctly
• Some prepared actions may slip through

7
Situational prevention (1)

• Mechanisms
• Identify and remove possibilities for specific
  types of terrorist action. Influence capacities
  as well as intentions
• Increase the efforts needed to carry through a
  specific attack (target hardening control access
  to facilities deflect offenders control weapons
  and other tools and substances)
• Increase the risks for detection (assist natural
  surveillance and increase formal surveillance
  reduce anonymity extend guardianship and place
  managers)
• Reduce the rewards for a specific terrorist
  action (reduce access to attractive targets do
  not give in to blackmail reduce publicity deny
  benefits)
• Reduce provocations which may trigger terrorist
  action
• Remove excuses for carrying out acts of terrorism

8
Situational prevention (2)

• Actors Many! (Security guards, control agencies,
  various authorities, place owners, business
  organisations, the public, etc.)
• Measures Large spectre of possible means
• Advantages
• Often immediate and measurable effects on
  specific problems.
• Targeted, but may also impact other types of
  crime.
• Limitations and side effects
• May displace terrorist attacks from hardened
  targets to softer targets
• Increased security measures may create a control
  society the Big Brother Syndrome
• May also reduce other problems

9
Situational prevention (3)

• Identify vulnerable targets
• Prioritise targets according to needs for
  protection
• Risk Probability X Consequence
• Analyse the specific vulnerability of the targets
• Think terrorist!
• Identify possible weapons and methods terrorists
  may use to hit targets
• Find ways to limit the terrorists access to
  targets
• Introduce adequate protective measures
• Identify how terrorists may try to bypass
  protective measures, and introduce new
  counter-measures.

10
Social and political prevention removing root
causes of terrorism

• Mechanism Reduce motivation for terrorism by
  removing root causes and frustrations
• Two kinds of root causes Preconditions and
  precipitants
• Actors Governments, other political actors,
  NGOs, peace mediators, etc.
• Measures Conflict resolution, political
  processes, social development, non-discrimination,
  rule of law, etc.
• Advantages May have positive effects other
  social and political problems than terrorism
  alone
• Limitations and negative side effects
• There is no single root cause of terrorism but
  many and complex
• Many root causes are difficult to solve (e.g.
  protracted conflicts, deeply ingrained social
  problems)
• Measures will often take a long time before they
  make an impact
• Effects are difficult to measure
• Terrorism is frequently sustained by other
  reasons than those which gave rise to the
  terrorist campaign initially

11
Make terrorists quit terrorism

• Mechanisms Make active terrorists quit,
  individually or collectively. Remove motivation
  for terrorism
• Actors Governments, criminal justice system,
  NGOs
• Measures Amnesty, witness (protection)
  programmes, negotiations, political processes,
  alternatives to violence
• Advantages
• May make an end to terrorist campaignes
• May reduce violence and suffering
• May reduce the size of terrorist groups and
  prevent recruitment
• May cause internal splits and weaken the
  terrorist group
• May provide vital intelligence and witnesses in
  court cases
• Limitations and negative side effects
• May mainly have an impact on declining terrorist
  groups
• Amnesty programmes may easily be abused risk of
  recidivism
• Amnesty may be difficult to accept by the victims
  of terrorism
• May undermine principles of the rule of law and
  sense of justice

12
Main strategies for preventingterrorism

• Short-term preventive strategies
• Incapacitation
• Deterrence by threat of retaliation or punishment
• Averting planned terrorist attacks
• Situational prevention
• Long-term preventive strategies
• Social and political prevention by reducing root
  causes and motivations for violent radicalisation
• Disengagement from terrorism making individuals
  and groups discontinue their involvement in
  terrorism
• Main challenge To make short-term and long-term
  strategies support rather than undermine each
  other

Dato
Tittel