PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES

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America Post Attack Observations about Recent
National Survey Data
W.D. McInturff, Partner
PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
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An Introduction . . .
Public Opinion Strategies is closely monitoring
the sea change in American attitudes since the
tragic events of September 11th. In addition to
conducting our own national survey last week, the
following are observations gleaned from the
volume of survey research being conducted by
multiple news outlets. The following is not
meant to be an exhaustive data review and
summary. Instead, we simply wanted to highlight
data we found to be compelling and of unusual
interest.
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Here is one thing that has not changed TV is
king. In the rush to embrace the new media
lets always remember what continues to be the
most compelling medium with which to communicate
to the American public.
Where have you gotten most of your information
about the attacks?
Bloomberg 9/18-23/01, surveyed 1200 adults.
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Trust in the government in Washington hit a 35
year high last week.
People have asked us how do you measure how much
Americans are pulling together in response to the
terrorist attack? Well, in perhaps the most
dramatic change I have witnessed over a 20 year
plus career, there has been a total reversal in
how much people say they trust the government in
Washington to do what is right. Confidence in
government last week returned back to levels not
seen since before the significant escalation of
the Vietnam War. For a party whose electoral
good fortune has been closely connected to when
confidence in government was at historically low
levels (1980/1994), this presents a fascinating
conundrum. Our expectations are the percentage of
people saying they trust the federal government
just about always or most of the time will
erode, but it will be interesting to see where
and when this number resets itself. If the
presidents efforts against terrorism and efforts
to stabilize the economy are deemed successful,
it is possible this confidence in government
number could reset at higher levels than we have
seen since at least the Reagan administration and
work to the benefit of an incumbent Republican
president.
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Trust in the government in Washington hit a 35
year high last week.
How much of the time do you trust the government
in Washington to do what is right? Would you say
just about always, most of the time, or some of
the time?
Washington Post 2/26/1985- 9/27/2001
/Michigan-American National Election Study
1958-1982
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Trust in the government in Washington hit a 35
year high last week.
How much of the time do you trust the government
in Washington to do what is right? Would you say
just about always, most of the time, or some of
the time?
Washington Post 2/26/1985-9/27/2001
/Michigan-American National Election Study
1958-1982
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Every measure of economic confidence paints a
grim picture.
By any consumer measure of economic confidence,
the terrorist attack has had a dramatic ... and
negative ... impact. The University of Michigan
Consumer Sentiment Index suggests after an
initial uptick immediately following the attack,
there was a dramatic drop in confidence in the
status of the economy in late September. In other
polling, there is a surge in people saying the
economy is in a recession. And finally, among
those employed, 46 say the financial prospects
of the company they work for have been or will be
hurt because of the attack.
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Every measure of economic confidence paints a
grim picture.
The University of Michigan has been using a very
accurate survey instrument to score consumers
economic outlook for decades. As observers of
public trends for our clients, Public Opinion
Strategies went into the Michigan database to do
some comparison work. The University of Michigan
Consumer Sentiment Index in September stood at
81.8 a drop of 25 points since September of
2000. This 25 point fall-off is the second
largest drop in a 12 month period since 1978.
And, looking at the data on a month-to-month
basis, the drop from August to September of this
year was the fourth largest (9.7 points) since
1978.
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Every measure of economic confidence paints a
grim picture.
And, things could only be getting worse. In data
gathered during the second half of September
(after the September 11th attack), the Sentiment
Index dropped even still further to 72.2 a
dramatic decline of 16.1 points from the weeks
right before the attack. The last time the Index
was as low as 72 was in February 1991 and the
Index had not been as low as 82 since
1993. October will be a critical month to watch,
as we will have a better sense of where the
post-attack economy could be trending. Any
further drop would suggest a sustained economic
bad patch.
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University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Index From September 2000-September 2001
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This data strongly reinforces how immediately and
sharply the attack has driven negative
impressions about the future of the economy.
Do you think the United States is in a recession?
-10
-29
-6
8
6
31
-22
-33
CBS/New York Times 9/20-23/01, surveyed 1,216
adults.
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And roughly half of working Americans are
reporting their employers business is already
feeling or will be feeling the impact.
Currently employed adults were asked Have the
financial prospects of the company you work for
been hurt by the terrorist attacks?
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 9/21-22/01, surveyed 1,005
adults.
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Measuring the impact of the attack . . .
There are other ways to measure the impact of the
attack ... on what people say they have done
(with 64 of Americans saying they have cried) to
what people say they will not do (33 of
Americans now saying flying is not safe and an
even higher 43 saying they would not feel safe
flying). Dont look for a quick rebound by the
airline or travel and tourism industries.
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As a result of the attacks, have you
Time/CNN 9/27, surveyed 1,055 adults.
PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
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People are expressing significant concerns about
airplane travel.
Whatever your personal feelings about flying, how
would you rate the overall safety record of
commercial airline travel?
How safe do you feel flying in large commercial
jet airplanes?
Total safe 57 Total not safe 43
Total Excellent/Good 66 Total Only Fair/Poor 33
Bloomberg 9/18-23/01, surveyed 1200 adults.
Public Opinion Strategies Sept. 23-25, 2001,
surveyed 800 registered voters
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But there are already signs anxiety levels are
dropping a bit. . .
Theres been a 10 drop in just two weeks in the
number of people who feel it is very likely
there will be other attacks against major U.S.
cities or landmarks and a 7 drop in the
percentage of people who are concerned that the
area they live in could be a target. It also
seems clear that success is most likely judged
by whether we can successfully prevent future
terrorist attacks here in America. But you can
also see how critical it is in reshaping
attitudes that nothing more happen in this
country.
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But there are already signs anxiety levels are
dropping a bit. . .
Is it likely that more terrorist attacks will be
carried out against other major U.S. Cities or
Landmarks?
Newsweek 9/27-28/01, surveyed 1,000 adults.
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But there are already signs anxiety levels are
dropping a bit. . .
Are you concerned about a terrorist attack in the
area you live?
-34
-20
CBS/New York Times 9/20-23/01, surveyed 1,216
adults.
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Perceptions of success do suggest focusing on
no more attacks against Americans.
Which is more important to you? That our
military actions
PEW 9/21-25/01, surveyed 1,488 adults.
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People are patient, they know it wont be easy,
and are far from convinced we can achieve our
goals.
We are also struck by how difficult people
perceive the task ahead ... and how cautious they
feel about whether we can prevent acts of
terrorism here or defeat every global terrorist
organization. And its important to remember
while 21 of people say yes the U.S. may have
been unfair in dealing with other countries and
this might have motivated the attack, a sharply
higher percentage, 48, say yes that not being
tough enough in our dealings with other countries
might have motivated the attack. Finally, as you
try to gauge how Americans are feeling, a robust
31 of Americans actually say they would favor
American citizens of Arab descent being put in
camps until it could be determined whether they
have terrorist links.
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People are patient, they know it wont be easy,
and are far from convinced we can achieve our
goals.
Fighting against terrorists, compared to past war
enemies will be More difficult, less difficult,
or about the same?
CBS/NY Times 9/20-23/01, surveyed 1216 adults.
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People are patient, they know it wont be easy,
and are far from convinced we can achieve our
goals.
To deal with terrorism the United States should
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 9/21-22/01, surveyed 1,005
adults.
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People are patient, they know it wont be easy,
and are far from convinced we can achieve our
goals.
How confident are you the United States will be
able to prevent major acts of terrorism from
occurring in the United States in the future?
How confident are you that every global terrorist
organization will be defeated?
Total confident 32 Total not confident 23
Total confident 21 Total not confident 40
CNN/USA Today/Gallup 9/21-22/01, surveyed 1,005
adults.
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People currently are more likely to believe our
not being tough enough might have motivated the
attack.
PEW 9/21-25/01, surveyed 1,488 adults.
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Its a little sobering in todays current
emotional environment almost one out of three
people would support putting other American
citizens in camps.
What should the U.S. do to prevent future attacks?
Time/CNN 9/27, surveyed 1,055 adults.
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Turning to issues and politics . . . there will
be a post attack politics and issue structure
that will emerge before the mid-term elections.
Here is what open-end data makes clear through
today. We are past the world of a fuzzy issue
environment. There are two key issues front and
center of the American agenda for now and months
to come Terrorism and the economy. The last
time we saw an issue structure with open-end data
so clearly confined to two issues was in
post-election data in 1982 in the wake of double
digit unemployment as Americans focused on
unemployment and Social Security.
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There will be a post attack politics and issue
structure that will emerge before the mid-term
elections.
Its possible the typical member of Congress
might not be scored by their handling of the
issue of terrorism and national security as they
may not be viewed as playing a pivotal role on
this issue. However, every member of Congress
will be scored on their personal handling of the
looming economic problems ahead.
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There will be a post attack politics and issue
structure that will emerge before the mid-term
elections.
But still, the rest of the American agenda lies
ahead. Its clear people are not willing to
postpone action on issues like prescription
drugs. And, although its clear we will ... and
must ... use the current Social Security surplus
for battling terrorism and restoring the country
to economic health, thats a discussion we
continue to need to have with the American
electorate.
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Two most important issues for federal government
to address
Open-end Summary codes ranked by September 2001
Fox News 9/19-20/01, surveyed 900 registered
voters.
PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
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People still want action on other key issues.
Because of the war on terrorism, do you favor
postponing action on the following for at least a
year?
Washington Post9/25-27/01, surveyed 1,215 adults
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We will need to engage the electorate on the
discussion about the use of Social Security funds
. . .
Should Bush spend the Social Security surplus in
response to the terrorist attacks?
Bloomberg 9/18-23/01, surveyed 1200 adults.