Imperialism, globalization in crisis and the Arab revolutions

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Imperialism, globalization in crisis and the
Arab revolutions
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Introduction

• Place of report in the session
• Reporter
• a US
• Jewish
• gay
• anti-imperialist
• in Holland
• Reporters limits
• not an economist
• not an expert on any of these countries

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Overview of report

• I. Imperialism Lenins theory
• II. Neoliberal globalization
• III. Armed globalization and the war on
  terror
• Permanent revolution
• V. The Arab revolutions today

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I. Imperialism Lenins theory

• The Marxist understanding of imperialism before
  Lenin
• Marx and Engels Ireland, Poland, Algeria and
  India
• German social democracy not a man, not a penny
• An outdated vision of capitalism revisionism
• The shock of 1914

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Basics of Lenins theory

• (from a non-economist!)?
• Laissez-faire capitalism and monopoly capitalism
• Uneven development and export of capital
• Competition for raw materials
• The division of the planet colonial empires
• Spheres of influence and semi-colonies

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Colonial empires 1914
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(Official) division of the world

• PERCENTAGE OF TERRITORY BELONGING TO THE EUROPEAN
  COLONIAL POWERS (including the US)?
• 1876 1900 Increase or decrease
• Africa.......... 10.8 90.4 79.6
• Polynesia.... 56.8 98.9 42.1
• Asia............ 51.5 56.6 5.1
• Australia..... 100.0 100.0
• America...... 27.5 27.2 -0.3

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(Unofficial) control of the world

• DISTRIBUTION (APPROXIMATE) OF FOREIGN
• CAPITAL IN DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE GLOBE
• (circa 1910)?
• Britain France Germany Total
• (in billions of German marks)
• Europe.......... 4 23 18 45
• America.......... 37 4 10 51
• Asia, Africa, and Australia...... 29 8
  7 44
• Total........ 70 35 35 140

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Imperialism, 1916-1982

• 1914-20 Re-division German and Ottoman
  possessions become British, French, Italian,
  Japanese and US
• 1936-45 Failed German challenge to re-division
  Italy and Japan lose their colonial possessions
• 1947/1956 Truman Doctrine and Suez crisis mark
  replacement of British by US hegemony
• 1949 Chinese revolution
• 1955 Bandung India, Indonesia, Egypt etc. gain
  autonomy
• 1975 US defeat in Vietnam
• 1979/1980/1982 Thatcher elected Reagan elected
  debt crisis

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II. Neoliberal globalization

• Is imperialism still a relevant framework to
  analyze the world economy today?
• Claudio Katzs arguments
• Growth of inequality dominant and dependent
  countries
• Terms of trade
• Extraction of financial resources
• Transfer of industrial profits
• Loss of political autonomy

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Distribution of wealth (2005)?

• world pop. world GDP GDP per cap.
• Dominant 14 78 31,000
• countries
• Dependent 80 19 1,410
• countries
• (Figures from CADTM)?

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Terms of trade and repatriation of profits

• Ratio of prices between dependent country exports
  and dependent country imports
• 1980 100
• 2002 48
• Net repatriation of profits from dependent
  countries by multinational corporations,
  1998-2002
• 334 billion

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Multinationals monopoly finance capital
Selected GDP of countries and revenues of
multinational corporations

• Countries (IMF, 2012, billion)?
• 1. US 15,685
• 2. China 8,227
• 5. France 2,609
• 7. Brazil 2,396
• 10. India 1,825
• 13. Spain 1,352
• 18. Netherlands 773
• 39. Egypt 257
• 43. Israel 241
• 46. Iraq 213
• 104. Afghanistan 20

• Multinationals (2012/13, billion)?
• 1. Shell 482
• 2. Walmart 469
• 3. ExxonMobil 450
• 4. Sinopec 428
• 5. PetroChina 409
• 6. BP 388
• 7. China State Grid 298
• 8. Toyota 266
• 9. Volkswagen 248
• 10. Total 234

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Autonomy lost - and found?

• IMF/World Bank/WTO one dollar, one vote
• Structural adjustment and conditionality
• Consequences for social spending and debt
  repayment
• Consequences for negotiating positions
• Beyond dependence China, Brazil, India(?)
• Signs of change Doha, Bancosur(?)

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III. Armed globalization and the war on terror

• Militarism response to and cause of
  disintegration of peripheral states (Katz)?
• Role of US
• Enforcer of neoliberal world order
• Sole superpower 39 of global military
  spending
• Military-industrial complex
• Military supremacy inter-imperialist
  rivalries
• Oil Latin America, the Middle East and shale
• Tools Coalitions of the willing, NATO and UN

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The post-1991 world order

• The first US invasion of Iraq (1991) a decisive
  moment (Achcar)?
• US military return to Gulf region (after 1962
  withdrawal)?
• Demonstration of superior US military technology
• Network of bases and alliances

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The empire and Obama

• A time of deepening crisis
• Challenges to US/European/Japanese power
• Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya
• Factors in imperial politics in Mideast
• Oil
• Geopolitics
• Alliance with Zionism
• Clash of civilizations

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The clash of barbarisms

• 9/11 Spotlight on Islamic world
• Petty bourgeoisie and fundamentalism
• The diversity of fundamentalism pro-imperial,
  anti- crusader and undecided
• Women and LGBTs
• Fundamentalism a deadly enemy
• March separately, strike together
• The Arab revolutions fundamentalism sidelined?

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IV. Permanent revolution

• Permanent revolution and our identity
• A distinctive feature of Trotskyism
• The heritage of the Bolshevik revolution
• World War II, Yugoslavia and China
• The 1968 generation, Vietnam and Che
• Since 1989 the collapse of national liberation
  movements and new strategic debates

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Origins of the theory

• 1905 Mensheviks (intransigent opposition),
  Bolsheviks (democratic dictatorship) and
  Trotsky
• 1917 April Theses Lenin and Trotsky converge
• 1923-4 Socialism in one country vs. permanent
  revolution
• 1927 Tragedy of the Chinese revolution
• 1929 The theory generalized

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Key points of Trotskys theory

• Against economic determinism (maturity and
  immaturity) democratic and socialist tasks
• Against stagism
• The working class and its allies
• The revolution begins nationally, progresses
  internationally, is completed globally
• No triumphalism possibilities and impossibilities

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1945- the theory developed

• Michael Löwy and Latin American Marxism
• Yugoslavia, China, Vietnam bureaucratized
  permanent revolution
• Cuba and Nicaragua
• Mexico, Bolivia, Algeria interrupted popular
  revolutions
• Turkey, India, Indonesia semi-revolutions from
  above

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1995 the theory re-examined

• Theoretical tasks comparable to early 20th
  century
• Major defeats structures are no longer
  functional (reformist, populist, revolutionary
  nationalist)
• Crisis of leadership is now a crisis of movement
• National/international/global where is the
  power?
• Since 1995 Venezuela, Bolivia
• and the Arab revolutions

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V. The Arab revolutions

• The Arab world history and its lessons
• The stakes oil, Zionism and geopolitics
• The story so far Tunisia, Egypt, Syria
• Results and prospects an ongoing permanent
  revolution?
• Revolution and solidarity

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Glory of the Arab world
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British and French imperialism
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US imperialism in the Middle East

• 1933 US contract with Saudi king
• 1947-9 Nakba creation of Israeli state
• 1956 Suez crisis
• 1967 1973 US backs Israel
• 1979 Iran revolution USSR invades
  Afghanistan
• 1989 USSR leaves Afghanistan
• 1991 First US invasion of Iraq
• 2001 9/11 US invasion of Afghanistan
• 2003 US invasion and occupation of Iraq
• 2008 Assault on Gaza
• 2010/1 Arab revolutions intervention in Libya
• 2011 US troop withdrawal from Iraq

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Lessons of Middle Eastern history

• Depth of anti-imperialism
• Oil, imperialism and populism
• Israel imperial asset and liability
• Vital interests converging and contradictory
• The Arab despotic exception

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Oil reserves by region

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Palestine continuing Nakba

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The Arab revolutions begin Tunisia and Egypt

• An end to the Arab despotic exception?
• Tyranny, corruption, crisis youth without a
  future
• Tunisia the spark
• Egypt the central country (since 1952)
• In the workplaces / on Tahrir Square
• Imperialism responds Morocco Jordan Saudis in
  Bahrain
• Elections victory of (diverse and divided)
  Islamic forces
• The crises of an-Nahda and the Brotherhood in
  power
• A four-cornered fight?

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Revolution in the trenches Libya and Syria

• Libya oil (a bit), shifting relation to
  imperialism
• NATO intervention imperialism back in the game
• Syria even less oil relation to Zionism
• Achcar on differences between Libya and Syria
• Syria mounting bloodshed and impossible
  intervention
• The right to assistance - and the danger of
  subordination
• Another four-cornered fight?

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Results and prospects an ongoing permanent
revolution?

• The dynamic of growing over (2011 IC text)
• Regional dimension - and international (Madrid,
  Madison, New York)
• Popular participation, Constituent Assembly and
  state institutions
• A very unfinished process is class independence
  possible?
• Debates in the Tunisian Popular Front
• Is bourgeois democracy impossible?
• Reform versus revolution?
• Towards a working-class insurrection?

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Revolution and solidarity

• The legitimacy of revolution
• The balance of military forces
• Our globalization linking civil societies
• Fundamentalism and democracy, capital and labour
• Solidarity a political battle
• Solidarity concrete tasks