Nuclear Politics in South Asia

1
Nuclear Politics in South Asia
2
Presentation Overview

• History of Nuclear Weapons Programs (1947-1998)
• Post-1998 Developments
• Similarities
• Discussion Issues
• Suggested Readings
• QA

3
Nuclear Weapons Development 1947-981940s -1959

• India
• 1948 AEC created, Homi Bhabha strongly supports
  creating a self-sufficient nuclear infrastructure
• Building the nuclear infrastructure and creating
  a large pool of trained personnel
• Chinas development of nuclear weapons is
  acknowledged in internal discussions
• Political establishment against nuclear weapons

• Pakistan
• 1956 Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC)
  created
• Late 1950s Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, Minister for
  Fuel and Natural Resources, advocates the
  development of nuclear weapons

4
1960s

• India
• 1960s increased nuclear assistance from foreign
  countries
• 1962 - Disastrous border war with China shifts
  opinion gradually in favor of nuclear weapons
• 1964 Chinas nuclear test further strengthens
  the pro-bomb lobby.
• 1965 SNEPP initiated, Indo-Pak war (Chinas
  support for Pakistan U.S. refusal to supply
  arms)
• 1966 SNEPP halted
• Late 1967 new effort to develop nuclear
  explosives initiated
• 1968-70 India opposes the NPT

• Pakistan
• Pakistan acquires and begins operating Pakistan
  Atomic Research Reactor (PARR)
• Mid-1960s Bhuttos request for building nuclear
  weapons is rejected by Gen. Ayub Khan
• 1964-65 Pakistan takes notice of Indias
  reaction to Chinas nuclear test
• 1965 Indo-Pak war (U.S. refusal to supply arms)
• Late 1960s - Bhutto writes Myth of Independence
  in which he advocates the development of nuclear
  weapons.

5
1970s

• India
• 1971 Indo-Pak war
• 1972 Approval given for fabricating a nuclear
  explosive
• 1974 India tests a nuclear explosive, dubbed as
  a PNE. Exact yield is still unclear (between 4
  12 kilotons)
• Post 1974 further development of nuclear
  weapons is slowed down (halted??)

• Pakistan
• 1971 Indo-Pak war
• January 1972 Bhutto convenes a meeting of
  scientists and announces the decision to develop
  nuclear weapons
• 1973-77 Pakistan tries to acquire reprocessing
  plants from France, but U.S. intervenes
• 1974 A.Q. Khan, working in the Netherlands,
  offers his assistance
• 1975 Pakistan starts acquiring equipment for
  uranium enrichment and other components of the
  nuclear fuel cycle
• Pakistan shifts from a plutonium based nuclear
  arsenal to HEU based arsenal

6
1980s

• India
• Early to mid 1980s nuclear weapons development
  proceeds in fits and starts. 1974 design is
  improved
• 1982 Additional nuclear tests planned but
  cancelled
• 1983 India sanctions the Integrated Guided
  Missile Development Program (IGMDP)
• 1986-87 Operation Brasstacks, first nuclear
  crisis

• Pakistan
• Pakistan steadily makes progress in its nuclear
  weapons program (enrichment facility operational,
  cold tests conducted, nuclear test-site built)
• U.S. ignores Pakistans nuclear weapons program
  due to the Afghan war
• 1987 Op. Brasstacks, A.Q. Khan delivers an
  implicit nuclear threat to an Indian journalist.
  Officially, a Pakistani minister delivers a
  similar nuclear threat
• Late 1980s Pakistan begins development of
  ballistic missiles

7
1990s

• India
• 1990 crisis over Kashmir (second nuclear
  crisis)
• 1995 NPT extended indefinitely
• 1995 India prepares for nuclear test(s) but
  cancels after U.S. discovers test(s) preparations
• 1996 CTBT opens for signature
• May 1998 India conducts 5 nuclear tests

• Pakistan
• 1990 crisis over Kashmir (second nuclear
  crisis)
• Pakistan acquires ballistic missile technology
  from North Korea
• April 1998 Pakistan tests the Ghauri ballistic
  missile
• May 1998 Pakistan conducts 6 nuclear tests

8
Nuclear Proliferation in South Asia

• Indian nuclear tests May 11 and 13, 1998
• Diplomatic efforts to stop Pakistani tests
• Pakistan nuclear tests May 28 30, 1998
• Immediate economic sanctions on both India and
  Pakistan

9
Post-1998 Developments

• India
• Formulates a nuclear doctrine adopts a no-first
  use posture and a triad based on a minimum and
  survivable deterrent force
• Constitutes a tri-service Strategic Rocket
  Command to manage land-based nuclear missiles
• Creates a Nuclear Command Authority (NCA) to
  manage nuclear forces
• 1999 Kargil conflict
• 2002 Increased tensions

• Pakistan
• Creates a National Command Authority to manage
  nuclear forces
• Formulates a nuclear doctrine, rejects no-first
  use of nuclear weapons. Official doctrine not
  released
• 1999 Kargil conflict
• 2002 Increased tensions

10
Pakistans Ballistic Missile Systems(Source
Arms Control Today)
System Status Range/Payload Source
Hatf-1 Operational 80-100 km/500 kg Domestic Production
Hatf-2 Tested/Development 190 km/500 kg Domestic/China
Hatf-3 (Ghaznavi) Tested/Development 280 km/500 kg Domestic/China
Tarmuk  Development  300 km/800 kg  Domestic/China
Haider-1 Development 350 km/? kg Domestic Production
Shaheen-1 Tested/Development 750 km/500 kg Domestic/China
Ghauri-1 (Nodong-1) Tested/Development 1,300 km/700 kg Domestic/N. Korea
Ghauri-2 Tested/Development 2,300 km/700 kg Domestic/N. Korea
Shaheen-2 Development 2,500 km/1,000 kg Domestic/China
Ghauri-3 Engine Tested/Development 3,000 km/? kg Domestic/N. Korea
11
Indias Ballistic Missile Systems (Source Arms
Control Today)
System Status Range/Payload Source
Prithvi-1 Operational 150 km/1,000 kg Domestic Production
Prithvi-2 Operational 250 km/500 kg Domestic Production
Dhanush/ Prithvi-3 Tested/Development 350 km/1,000 kg Domestic Production
Agni-1 variant Tested/Development 725 km/1,000 kg Domestic Production
Agni-1 Tested/Prototype Only 1,500 km/1,000 kg Domestic Production
Agni-2 Serial Production 2,000 km/1,000 kg Domestic Production
Agni-3 Development 3,000-5,500 km/? kg Domestic Production
Surya Development 5,500 km/2,000 kg Domestic/Russia
Sagarika (SLBM) Development 350 km/500 kg Domestic/Russia
12
Indian Background

• Tension with China
• 1974 peaceful nuclear explosion (PNE)
• Today 80-100 nuclear weapons
• Goal regional stability

13
Pakistani Background

• Nuclear weapons capability by 1989-1990
• Today 90-110 nuclear weapons
• Goals overcoming conventional inferiority,
• keeping regional balance of power

14
Nuclear Hopes and Fears

• Pakistan Army better able to negotiate with
  India?
• Fears of radical Islamic elements within Pakistan
  Army
• Fear of nukes falling into terrorist hands

15
Similarities

• Decision-making on nuclear weapons is highly
  personalized
• Significant foreign assistance
• Due to export controls, both the countries
  operated clandestine networks to procure nuclear
  equipment and materials
• Scientific establishment given high degree of
  autonomy
• Both the countries have not signed the NPT and
  the CTBT
• Symbolism associated with nuclear weapons
• Anti-nuclear movement is not well developed
• Institutionalization of nuclear forces is less
  advanced

16
Discussion Issues

• Nuclear Stability
• Nuclear Confidence Building Measures (CBMs)
• Nuclear Command Control
• Trajectory of Weaponization
• Number of nuclear weapons definite numbers not
  available
• Delivery systems
• Second-tier Proliferation
• Integrating India and Pakistan into the
  Nonproliferation regime
• U.S. Nonproliferation policy toward S. Asia