Dr. Arndt Michael

1
Pakistan and Regional Security in Asia

• Dr. Arndt Michael
• International Forum of Public Universities (IFPU)
  
• Summer School
• "Managing an International Crisis"
• July 5-10 at CERIUM, the University of Montreals
  Centre for International Relations

2
Structure of Presentation

• A (very) brief history of Pakistan
• Pakistan today
• Determinants of Pakistans Security Conception
• Pakistans Foreign Policy in the region
• Afghanistan
• China
• India
• The South Asian Association for Regional
  Cooperation
• Summary and policy recommendations

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Objective of Presentation

• Identify key foreign and security policy
  strategies
• Assess Pakistans security interests in the
  greater regional context (Afghanistan, India and
  China)
• Possibly predict Pakistani policy behaviour in an
  international crisis

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Pakistan
5
Pakistan Major ethnic groups
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1) Very Brief History of Pakistan

• August 14, 1947 - Pakistan founded (West East
  Wing)
• 1947 - 1st India-Pakistan War
• 1965 - 2nd India-Pakistan War
• 1971 - 3rd India-Pakistan War
• 1971 East Pakistan becomes Bangladesh
• Constituted appr. 50 of Pakistani territory
• May 1998 Pakistan becomes nuclear power (a
  process already begun in 1972)
• 1999 Kargil war between India and Pakistan
• 1999 General Pervez Musharraf takes over as
  Chief Executive (4th Military Coup), later
  president
• 2001 Pakistan becomes major US-ally in fight
  against terror
• Since February 2008
• President Asif Ali Zardari
• Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz
• Foreign Minister Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi

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1) Very Brief History of Pakistan cont.

• Since 1947, Pakistan has followed a cycle of
• military intervention
• military government
• military misrule
• return to civilian government
• civilian floundering
• and renewed intervention
• Summary
• Bureaucrats / unelected politicians 11 years in
  power
• Army 34 years in power (4 military coups)
• Elected representatives 15 years in power

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2) Pakistan today

• Domestic Conflict Lines
• Inter-confessional and supra-regional violence
  (Sunni - Shiites extremists, other religious
  minorities)
• Latent situation of civil war in Karachi
  (economic center, Sindh Mohajir - Pashtun)
• Baluchistan uprisings and revolts (deep sea port
  of Gwadar gas and oil)
• Terrorism and civil war in the North West
  Frontier Province, bordering Afghanistan

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2) Pakistan today

• The crisis state
• Political crisis
• Economic crisis
• Social crisis
• Educational crisis
• The global conflict state
• Terrorism
• Conflict region Iran-Afghanistan-Kashmir (USA
  AfPak)
• High concentration of different (violence) actors
  (state and non-state) with repercussions for
  regional security
• State actors Pakistan USA
• Domestic actors Police paramilitary groups
• External actors Military intelligence services
• Private actors Jihadists Taliban, local mafia

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2) Pakistan today cont.

• HDI The United Nations Human Development Report
  for 2007-08 estimates that almost 33 percent of
  Pakistanis live in poverty.

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2) Pakistan today cont.

• Oligarchic system (establishment)
• Major Pakistani political and social forces The
  triad
• Military (plus Inter Services Intelligence, ISI)
• Bureaucracy (Civil Service of Pakistan, CSS)
• Feudal landlords and the families (22)
• Also important US ambassador as unofficial
  player

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2) Pakistan today cont.

• The Role of the Military
• Centre of dysfunctionality dominance of army
  (supported by various US administrations)
• Approximately 650,000 personnel are on active
  duty in the military - the world's 6th largest
  armed force as of 2010
• Combined with the 302,000 strong paramilitary
  forces and 528,000 in reserve, the Pakistani
  military has a total size of over 1,000,000
  personnel
• No conscription

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2) Pakistan today cont.

• General Headquarters (GHQ) located in Rawalpindi
• Veto position / monopoly on
• Nuclear and rocket program arms procurement
  Kashmir question
• Possible changes because of new government
• Most powerful corporative actor of the country
• Chief of the Army Staff (COAS) responsible for
• nuclear programme, procurement, military
  strategy, operative planning
• comprehensive competence in security policy
  guidelines
• Director-General of ISI reports to prime
  minister, but assigned to COAS

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2) Pakistan today cont.

• The Role of the ISI
• The Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence
  (also Inter-Services Intelligence or ISI) is the
  largest intelligence service in Pakistan
• It is one of the three main branches of
  Pakistan's intelligence agencies
• Involvement in major conflicts
• Conflicting statements as to its role and
  engagement

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2) Pakistan today cont.

• The Role of the ISI
• (2010) A new report by the London School of
  Economics (LSE) claimed to provide the most
  concrete evidence yet that the ISI is providing
  funding, training and sanctuary to the Taliban
  insurgency on a scale much larger than previously
  thought.
• The report's author Matt Waldman spoke to nine
  Taliban field commanders in Afghanistan and
  concluded that Pakistan's relationship with the
  insurgents ran far deeper than previously
  realised.
• Some of those interviewed suggested that the
  organization even attended meetings of the
  Taliban's supreme council, the Quetta Shura.
• http//news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/south_asia/103029
  46.stm

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3)Determinants of Pakistans Security Conception

• Major Phases of Pakistans Foreign Policy
• 1947-52 Exploration and Foundations of Foreign
  Policy
• 1953-62 Alignment with West
• SEATO
• CENTO
• 1962-71 Transition
• Creation of Bangladesh 1971
• 1972-79 Bilateralism and Non-Alignment
• 1980-1990 Afghanistan and Partnership with USA
• 1990-2001 Post Cold War-Era and Nuclear Power
• 2001 Counter Terrorism

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3)Determinants of Pakistans Security Conception

• Pakistan special case of inseparable connection
  between internal and external security
• International actors in the region
• Presence of international troops (ISAF, NATO) in
  Afghanistan
• Air strikes by means of predator drones of CIA
  and US Air force
• Frontiers
• Contentious Durand line with Afghanistan (1863,
  divides ethnic and linguistic people)
• Kashmir region

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3) Determinants of Pakistans Security Conception

• Four major determinants of Pakistans security
  conception
• 1) The India-Pakistan Relationship
• Secular India vs. Pakistan, home of Muslim
• Five wars between India and Pakistan
• Pakistan non-state actors Jihadists, trained
  by Pakistan ISI and army (privatization of war)
  and
• Extremist Islamists (Sunni) today Pakistani
  Taliban
• IndPak as one field of operation for local
  terror groups
• Fear of Indian/Russian encirclement

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3) Determinants of Pakistans Security Conception

• 2) The Pakistan-Afghanistan relationship
• 1862 Durand Line separated British India from
  Afghanistan in the West
• Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) as
  inner frontier to the East
• Both went through Pashtun territory
• Afghanistan providing strategic depth

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3) Determinants of Pakistans Security Conception

• Actors
• Kashmiri Jihadis
• Pakistani Jihadis
• Afghani Mujadehin (Taliban)
• Fluent borders and separations
• AfPakInd since the end of Taliban regime in
  Kabul, center of operation has shifted to the
  FATA
• The rulers in Kabul and Peshawar (capital of
  NWFP) directly impact on Pakistani inner and
  outer security

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3) Determinants of Pakistani Security Conception

• 3) Status claim Pakistan as a regional power
  (self-perception role theory ego alter)
• Particular defence and alliance policy China as
  counter weight to contain India
• Current projects with Chinese support reflect
  this
• Deep sea harbour Gwadar in the South
• Karakorum Highway in the North
• Current alliance with USA (past experiences)

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3) Determinants of Pakistani Security Conception

• 4) Particular ethical, moral and religious
  orientation of Pakistani security policy
• Anti-imperialism of independence movement
• Non-alignment movement (NAM)
• Ideological function Islamic Umma (Muslim
  World), translated into socially accepted foreign
  policy, in turn helpful in security political
  privatization of Kashmir and Afghanistan policy
  
• Economic function close relations with Saudi
  Arabia (lt-gt cheap oil import, but indirect
  domestic influence in terms of madrassas etc.)

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4) Pakistan Foreign Policy in the region

1. Afghanistan (Afpak)
2. China
3. India and Kashmir
4. Regional Cooperation

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4.1) Pakistan - Afghanistan

• Durand Line

• North West Frontier Province (NWFP)

• Region took a new shape when the Durand Line was
  established in 1893 by the British.
• Border line has separated the Pashtun and Baluch
  tribes.
• Today, fighting is taking place there between
  militants and Afghan/Pakistani military, backed
  by NATO forces.

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Pakistan Major ethnic groups
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4.1) Pakistan - Afghanistan

• Afghanistan accuses Pakistan of using its
  intelligence agency, the Inter-Services
  Intelligence (ISI), in aiding the Taliban
  militants.
• Pakistan has denied the allegations, but has said
  it does not have full control of the actions of
  the ISI.
• Relations became even more strained as the United
  States supports an Afghan invasion of tribal
  regions.
• US President Obama announced Afpak Strategy,
  2009
• Territorial borders of Afpak
• Iran, three central Asian states, China, India
  and Indian Ocean

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4.1) Pakistan - Afghanistan

• Pakistani strategists argument Afghanistan could
  provide "strategic depth in the event of a war
  with neighboring India.
• Should the Indian Army cross into Pakistan, the
  Pakistan Army could temporarily locate supplies
  in Afghanistan and prepare for a
  counter-offensive.
• At various times, Pakistan backed the mujahedeen
  against the Soviets, mujahedeen against each
  other and the Taliban against the Northern
  Alliance.

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4.1) Pakistan - Afghanistan

• On June 15, 2008, the Afghan government issued a
  statement threatening to send its army across the
  Durand Line in pursuit of rebels stationed along
  the mountainous border inside Pakistan.
• The statement caused considerable damage to
  bilateral relations and was rebuked by Pakistani
  officials as inappropriate.
• The United States, however, has stated it does
  support a temporary Afghan invasion of tribal
  areas in Pakistan if the Pakistani army is
  incapable of doing so.

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4.2) Pakistan - China

• Chinese president Hu Jintao the relationship
  between Pakistan and China is "higher than the
  mountains and deeper than the oceans".
• Favorable relations with China have been a major
  pillar of Pakistan's foreign policy.
• China strongly supported Pakistan's opposition to
  the Soviet Unions involvement in Afghanistan and
  is perceived by Pakistan as a regional
  counterweight to India.

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4.2) Pakistan - China

• China and Pakistan also share very close military
  relations, with China supplying a range of modern
  armaments to the Pakistani defence forces.
• China supports Pakistan's stance on Kashmir while
  Pakistan supports China on the issues of
  Xinjiang, Tibet, and Taiwan.
• Strategically, China is used to balance against
  India.

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4.2) Pakistan - China

• Free trade agreement China-Pakistan
• Lately, military cooperation has deepened with
  joint projects, producing armaments ranging from
  fighter jets to guided missile frigates.
• Substantial investment from China in Pakistani
  infrastructural expansion, including the
  Pakistani deep sea port in Gwadar.
• Pakistan serves as China's main bridge to Muslim
  countries.
• Pakistan had earlier played a leading role in
  bridging the communication gap between China and
  the West, through Henry Kissinger's secret visit
  before the 1972 Nixon visit to China.

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4.3) Pakistan and India

• India as defining element in Pakistans foreign
  policy
• Psychological cold war between the countries
• Trade takes place via Dubai
• Pakistan alleges Indian support for the
  insurgency in Baluchistan (resource rich) and
  Indian funding for a 135-mile road connecting the
  Nimroz province (Afghanistan) with the Iranian
  port of Chabahar

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4.3) Pakistan and India

• Recent crises between India and Pakistan with
  international repercussions
• Nuclearization in 1998 (70-90 warheads)
• Kargil War in 1999
• Terrorism in Jammu Kashmir, e.g. attack on
  State Assembly, 1 October, 2001
• Attacks on Indian parliament, 13 December, 2001
• Mumbai attacks, 26 November, 2008 (173 dead)

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4.3) Pakistan and India

• The Kashmir conflict
• Line of Control separates Azad Kashmir and Jammu
  Kashmir
• Wars in 1947 and 1965, limited conflict in 1999
• Large number of military personnel stationed at
  LoC

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World Press Photo 2009Riots in Srinagar,
Kashmir

• Official text A man cradles a stone during a
  pro-separatist demonstration in Srinagar,
  India-administered Kashmir, on 23 January.
  Kashmir, which is over 60 percent Muslim, has
  been disputed by India and Pakistan since the
  partition of the subcontinent in 1947 and is
  currently split between them. Since 1989, there
  has been a growing Muslim separatist movement
  against Indian control. Pro-separatist rallies in
  India-administered Kashmir are common.
• People in the News 1st prize singles, Michele
  Borzoni, Italy, TerraProject

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4.3) Pakistan and India

• Attempts at institutionalization of dialogue
• Composite Dialogue
• Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) high-level
  talks, easing visa restrictions, restarting
  cricket matches
• Fear of Indian and Russian encirclement
• US-Indian nuclear deal (United States-India
  Nuclear Cooperation Approval and
  Non-proliferation Enhancement Act) October 2008
• Regarded as part of a strategic alliance against
  Pakistan

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4.3) Pakistan and India

• Current developments - BBC News, Thursday, June
  2010
• India and Pakistan pledge better relations
• Senior Indian and Pakistani diplomats who have
  met in Islamabad have pledged to continue efforts
  to improve mutual relations and restore
  confidence.
• India's foreign secretary Nirupama Rao met her
  Pakistani counterpart Salman Bashir to decide the
  agenda for ministerial talks next month.
• Peace talks were put on hold after the Mumbai
  attacks of 2008, which India blamed on the
  Pakistan-based militants.
• In February, the foreign secretaries held their
  first formal talks in Delhi.
• Before that India had regularly rebuffed
  Pakistani calls to resume a substantive dialogue,
  saying Islamabad had not done enough to tackle
  militants or bring the Mumbai attacks organisers
  to justice.
• Talks between Indian Foreign Minister SM Krishna
  and and his Pakistani counterpart Shah Mahmood
  Qureshi will take place in Islamabad on 15 July.

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4.3) Pakistan and India

• The future of Indo-Pak relations?
• The Observer, Sunday 11 April 2010
• Sania Mirza and Shoaib Malik give India and
  Pakistan a new reason to squabble
• When Sania Mirza and Shoaib Malik an Indian
  tennis star and Pakistan's cricket hero fell in
  love, it offended Hindu sensibilities and
  bolstered Muslim pride

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4.4) The South Asian Association for Regional
Cooperation (SAARC)

• Founded in 1985
• Membership includes 8 countries
• Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan,
  India and Sri Lanka. Since April 2007,
  Afghanistan
• No bilateral or contentious issues to be
  discussed
• Achievements forum for talks between India and
  Pakistan face to face contacts

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5) Summary

• Pakistans strategic location
• Afghanistan
• Iran
• Central Asia
• Factors influencing Pakistan and regional
  security
• Domestic Military rule vis-a-vis civilian
  government
• Communalism, sectarianism and separatism
• Terrorism (especially vis-a-vis Afghanistan and
  Kashmir)
• Pakistans self-perception and status as nuclear
  power
• China Pakistans major strategic ally
• Scepticism about American reliability because of
  past experiences

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5) Summary cont.

• Factors to consider for Pakistan policy behaviour
• National security state
• Matrix of geopolitics, alliance and strategy
• Indian antagonism as defining factor
• China link
• Key players in government and society (triad)
• Previous policy
• Current economic and social problems
• Regional cooperation SAARC?

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Further Links

• South Asia Terrorism Portal
• http//www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/pakistan/i
  ndex.htm
• Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies
• http//san-pips.com/
• History of Pakistan
• http//www.storyofpakistan.com/
• South Asia Confidence Building Measures (CBM)
• Timeline 1988 Present
• http//www.stimson.org/?SNSA20060207948