Percent Hispanic of U.S. Population, 1960-2030

1
Redefining America Findings from the 2006
Latino National Survey Luis R. Fraga University
of Washington John A. Garcia University of
Arizona Rodney E. Hero University of Notre
Dame Michael Jones-Correa Cornell
University Valerie Martinez-Ebers University of
North Texas Gary M. Segura University of
Washington
2
Percent Hispanic of U.S. Population, 1960-2030
Percent
Source Chapter 2. Multiple Origins, Uncertain
Destinies. Adapted from Figure 2-2.
3
Hispanic Births and Net Immigration by Decade
1960-2030
Millions
Source Chapter 2. Multiple Origins, Uncertain
Destinies. Adapted from Figure 2-1.
4
Source Population Projections Division, U.S.
Bureau of the Census, 2002
5
Latino National Survey

• A national telephone survey of 8634 Latino
  residents of the United States, seeking a broad
  understanding of the qualitative nature of Latino
  political and social life in America
• State-stratified samples that reach approximately
  90 coverage of the national Latino population
• Approximately 40 minutes (length and number of
  questions depends on split-samples, etc)
• English and Spanish
• Universe is All Latino adults, not citizens or
  voters

6
Themes within the Survey

• Survey includesmany of the questions or topics
  you have grown to love from existing surveys,
  whenever possible to ensure comparability
• Questions submitted by various political
  scientists specifically targeted at states
• Questions suggested by the advisory board
• Beyond the standard, we focused on
  transnationalism, identity, inter-group and
  intra-group relations, gender, education, policy
  preferences, discrimination, mobilization and
  overall political orientations
• Some questions specific to foreign born,
  non-citizens, registered voters, and residents of
  specific states

7
Stratified Structure

• The survey is stratified, that is, creates
  stand-alone samples in 15 states and the DC Metro
  area allowing us to speak to specific political
  contexts
• Arizona 400
• Arkansas 400
• California 1200
• Colorado 400
• DC-SMSA 400
• Florida 800
• Georgia 400
• Illinois 600
• Iowa 400
• Nevada 400
• New Jersey 400
• New Mexico 400
• New York 800
• North Carolina 400
• Texas 800
• Washington 400
• TOTAL 8600

8
Florida Sub-samples

• Metro Miami Area 481
• Metro Orlando 86
• Tampa / St. Petersburg 79
• Rest of the State 154

9
Sources of Funding

• Annie E. Casey Foundation
• Carnegie Corporation
• Ford Foundation
• Hewlett Foundation
• Irvine Foundation
• Joyce Foundation
• Kellogg Foundation
• National Science Foundation
• Russell Sage Foundation
• Texas AM University MALRC, PERG

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• Demographics in the Latino National Survey

11
Latino Diversity
44 million Latinos in the US
Census Bureau (American Community Survey,
Released August 2006) Mexican 63.9 Puerto
Rican 9 Cuban 3.5 Salvadoran
2.9 Dominican 2.7 Guatemalan
1.7 Colombian 1.8 ALL OTHERS
14.3 Native-born (not Island-born)
35.4 Foreign-born 61 Island-born PR 3.6 No
high school diploma 43 College graduate 11.1
Latino National Survey (unweighted N) Summer
2006 Mexican 66.1 (5704) Puerto Rican
9.5 (822) Cuban 4.9 (420) Salvadoran
4.7 (407) Dominican 3.9 (335) Guatemalan
1.7 (149) Colombian 1.6 (139) All
Others 7.6 Native-born 28.4
(2450) Foreign-born (adults) 66.2
(5717) Island-born PR 5.4 (467) No high
school diploma 37 College graduate 16.2
12
Country of Origin for Florida Latinos by
Sampling Area of the Latino National Survey

• Nation Florida Miami Orlando
  Tampa Rest
• Area Area
  Area of state
• Cuban 3.9 30.0 81.9
  3.0 7.6 7.6
• Mexican 63.9 16.3 22.5
  7.8 15.5 54.3
• Puerto Ricans 9.0 21.0 16.9
  31.3 16.9 27.1
• Dominicans 2.7 9.9 88.5
  5.1 3.8 2.6
• Central Amer. 2.0 9.0 4.2
  3.2 4.2 11.3
• South Amer. 24.2 12.4 73.5
  9.2 6.2 10.2

The totals for each national origin group is
close to 100 across each row starting in the
column
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Nativity Status for Florida Latinos18 Years and
Older

• Nation Florida Miami Orlando
  Tampa Rest of
• Metro Metro
  Metro State
• Born Outside
• U.S. 66.7 85.6 88.6
  83.7 77.2 81.8
• Born U.S.
• 28.6 14.4 11.4
  16.3 22.8 18.2
• Naturalized30.1 51.9 59.5 44.4
  38.1 27.8
• Percentage is based upon the number of Latinos
  who have naturalized divided by the total foreign
  born Latinos

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Generational Statusfor Florida Latinos

• Florida Miami Orlando
  Tampa Rest of
  Metro Metro Metro
  State
• Gen 1 87.3 89.5
  86.7 80.3 84.0
• Gen 2 12.8 8.6
  10.8 10.5 10.0
• Gen 3 9.3 .2
  1.2 1.3 2.7
• Gen 4 8.7 1.7
  1.2 7.9 3.3
  

15
Latino-ness Extent of Latino Pan-Ethnicity
16
Pan-Ethnicity and Latinos

• Are there commonalities of culture and history?
• Are there commonalities of interests and
  circumstances ?
• Do Institutions cluster Spanish origin sub-groups
  as one group?
• Mass media (both English and Spanish speaking)
  does characterize and make appeals as
  Latinos/Hispanics.
• Organizations and leaders promote the idea of
  Latinos as a community.

17
Individual Latino Linked Fate How much does
your doing well depend on other
Latinos/Hispanics also doing well? A lot, some,
a little, or not at all?
Latino sub-groups in Florida None/Little Some/ A Lot
Cubans 70 (29.5) 133 (56.1)
Puerto Ricans 41 (24.7) 113 (68.1)
Mexicans 29 (22.5) 92 (71.3)
Dominicans 16 (20.5) 55 (70.5)
South Americans 27 (27.5) 60 (61.2)
Central Americans 27 (36.6) 39 (54.9)
Statistically significant at .05
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Latino Linked Fate How much does your ethnic
subgroup doing well depend on how other
Hispanics or Latinos also doing well? A lot,
some, a little, or not at all?
Latino sub-groups in Florida None/Little Some/ A Lot
Cubans 52 (21.9) 154 (65.0)
Puerto Ricans 35 (21.0) 120 (72.3)
Mexicans 24 (18.6) 95 (73.6)
Dominicans 14 (17.9) 57 (83.1)
South Americans 15 (15.3) 68 (69.4)
Central Americans 20 (26.8) 47 (66.2)
Statistically not significant
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Among Multiple Identities- What is The Primary
Identification among Latino Sub-Groups
Latino sub-groups in Florida American National Origin Pan-ethnic (Latino)
Cuban 64 (27.0) 59 (24.9) 91 (38.4)
Puerto Rican 35 (21.1) 43(28.9) 77 (46.4)
Mexican 10 (7.8) 47 (36.4) 61 (47.3)
Dominican 10 (12.8) 25 (32.1) 35 (44.9)
South American 24 (24.5) 32 (32.7) 34 (34.7)
Central American 16 (22.5) 31 (43.7) 21 (29.6)
Statistically significant _at_.055
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Latino Sub-groups None/A Little Some/ A Lot
Cubans 51 (21.5) 168 (68.()
Puerto Ricans 31 (18.7) 122 (73.4)
Mexicans 35 (27.1) 85 (65.9)
Dominicans 13 (16.6) 58 (74.4)
South Americans 18 (18.4) 72 (73.5)
Central Americans 20 (28.2) 48 (67.6)
Not statistically significant
22
Perceptions of Common Political Interests Now
thinking about things like government services
and employment, political power, and
representation, how much do you have in common
with other Latinos/Hispanics? Would you say you
have a lot in common, some in common, little in
common, or nothing at all in common?
LATINO SUB-GROUPS None/ Little Some/ A Lot
Cuban 83 (35.0) 126 (53.2)
Puerto Ricans 43 (25.9) 106 (63.8)
Mexicans 52 (40.3) 69 (53.5)
Dominicans 27 (34.6) 43 (55.1)
South Americans 33 (33.7) 57 (57.1)
Central Americans 31 (43.6) 34 (57.9)
Statistically significant _at_ lt.05
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LATINO GROUP PERCEPTIONS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC
COMMONALITIES Thinking about issues like job
opportunities, education or income, how much do
your ethnic subgroup have in common with other
Latinos or Hispanics? Would you say ethnic
subgroup share a lot in common, some things in
common, little in common, or nothing in common
with other Latinos?
LATINO SUB-GROUPS IN FLORIDA NONE/ LITTLE SOME/ A LOT
Cubans 43 (18.2) 170 (71.2)
Puerto Ricans 22 (13.2) 133 (80.2)
Mexicans 15 (19.4) 93 (72.1)
Dominicans 11 (14.1) 63 (80.7)
South Americans 15 (15.3) 76 (77.6)
Central Americans 11 (15.5) 57 (80.3)
NOT STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT
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LATINO GROUP PERCEPTIONS OF POLITICAL
COMMONALITIES Now thinking about things like
government services and employment, political
power and representation, how much do ethnic
subgroup have in common with other Hispanics or
Latinos? Would you say ethnic subgroup share a
lot in common, some things in common, little in
common, or nothing in common with other
LATINO SUB-GROUPS IN FLORIDA NONE/ LITTLE SOME/ A LOT
Cubans 44 (18.6) 163 (78.7)
Puerto Ricans 37 (22.3) 118 (71.0)
Mexicans 36 (27.9) 78 (60.5)
Dominicans 18 (23.0) 53 (67.9)
South Americans 34 (34.7 55 (56.2)
Central Americans 24 (33.8) 42 (59.2)
Statistically significant _at_lt.05
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Assimilation, Values, and Identity
26
Language Preference Among Floridas Latinos
Language of Interview Florida Metro Miami Metro Orlando Metro Tampa Rest of State
English 229 (28.6) 128 (26.6) 31 (36.0) 22 (27.8) 48 (31.2)
Spanish 571 (71.4) 353 (73.4) 55 (64.0) 57 (72.2) 106 (68.8)
27
Importance of Learning English Among Floridas
Latinos
Importance of Learning English Florida Metro Miami Metro Orlando Metro Tampa Rest of State
Not important at all 3 (.4) 0 (0.0) 1 (1.2) 1 (1.3) 1 (.6)
Not very important 6 (.8) 2 (.4) 3 (3.5) 1 (1.3) 0 (0.0)
Somewhat important 32 (4.0) 15 (3.1) 6 (7.0) 2 (2.5) 9 (5.8)
Very important 759 (94.9) 464 (96.5) 76 (88.4) 75 (94.9) 144 (93.5)
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Importance of Retaining Spanish Among Floridas
Latinos
Importance of Retaining Spanish Florida Metro Miami Metro Orlando Metro Tampa Rest of State
Not important at all 3 (.4) 3(.6) 0 (0.0) 0 (0.0) 0 (0.0)
Not very important 9 (1.1) 5 (1.0) 1 (1.2) 2 (2.5) 1 (.6)
Somewhat important 58 (7.3) 28 (5.8) 9 (10.5) 11 (13.9) 10 (6.5)
Very important 730 (91.3) 445 (92.5) 76 (88.4) 66 (83.5) 143 (92.9)
Question How important do you think it is for
you and your family to maintain the ability to
speak Spanish?
29
Importance of Learning English/ Retaining
Spanish across Generationsfor Floridas Latinos
1st Gen 2nd Gen 3rd Gen 4th Gen
How important do you think it is that everyone in the United States learn English? How important do you think it is that everyone in the United States learn English? How important do you think it is that everyone in the United States learn English? How important do you think it is that everyone in the United States learn English? How important do you think it is that everyone in the United States learn English?
Somewhat 3.4 5.5 0.0 0.0
Very 96.2 91.8 85.7 95.0
How important do you think it is for you or your family to maintain the ability to speak Spanish? How important do you think it is for you or your family to maintain the ability to speak Spanish? How important do you think it is for you or your family to maintain the ability to speak Spanish? How important do you think it is for you or your family to maintain the ability to speak Spanish? How important do you think it is for you or your family to maintain the ability to speak Spanish?
Somewhat 7.3 6.8 0.0 5.0
Very 91.4 93.2 100.0 90.0

Statistically significant _at_lt.05
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Preferences for Cultural Assimilation and
Distinctness
1st FL 1st FL 2nd FL 2nd FL 3rd FL 4th FL
Importance of Changing to Blend into Larger Society Importance of Changing to Blend into Larger Society Importance of Changing to Blend into Larger Society Importance of Changing to Blend into Larger Society Importance of Changing to Blend into Larger Society Importance of Changing to Blend into Larger Society Importance of Changing to Blend into Larger Society
Somewhat Somewhat 26.2 22.3 26.2 22.3 33.3 32.9 34.7 42.9 37.5 35.0
Very Very 61.4 67.3 61.4 67.3 44.6 45.2 40.6 57.1 35.7 30.0
Importance of Maintaining Distinct Culture Importance of Maintaining Distinct Culture Importance of Maintaining Distinct Culture Importance of Maintaining Distinct Culture Importance of Maintaining Distinct Culture Importance of Maintaining Distinct Culture Importance of Maintaining Distinct Culture
Somewhat 16.2 14.2 16.2 14.2 16.2 14.2 18.3 16.4 20.3 14.3 26.1 35.0
Very 78.6 81.7 78.6 81.7 78.6 81.7 75.8 80.8 72.9 85.7 66.7 65.0

• Support for blending into the larger culture and
  for maintaining a distinct culture are positively
  and significantly related (r.115)
• Not seen as an either/or proposition
• Statistically significant _at_ lt.05
• Represents overall national responses

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Latinos and Partisanship
32
Patterns of PartisanshipNational and Florida

• Overall U.S. Born FL
  Born Outside FL U.S.
• Democrat 44.83 59.12
  40.35 37.02 30.19
• Republican 17.69 20.32
  28.95 16.25 29.84
• Independent 8.28 5.53
  7.02 9.78 9.60
• Dont Care 13.08 5.12
  11.84 17.43 14.31
• Dont Know 16.12 9.91
  11.84 19.51 16.06
  

33
Partisanship Among Citizensin U.S. and Florida

• U.S. FL Naturalized FL
  Reg. FL Not Reg. FL
• Democrat 59.1 40.2 47.7
  42.7 59.8 37.6 41.6 32.0
• Republican 20.3 28.9 22.1
  33.7 22.3 38.8 15.9 24.0
• Independent 5.5 7.1 8.3
  6.7 6.1 7.7 7.8 2.7
• Dont Care 5.1 11.9 8.8
  7.9 3.8 7.1 14.4 22.7
• Dont Know 9.9 11.8 13.1
  9.0 8.0 8.9 20.4 18.7

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Patterns of Partisanship- Florida
Nation FL Miami Area Orlando Area Tampa Area Other Florida Cubans Non- Cubans
Strong Democrat 23.9 20.6 20.6 17.5 24.0 21.6 17.6 21.8
Democrat 23.9 14.5 13.2 20.6 20.0 16.2 4.8 18.7
Leans Democrat 15.5 11.2 11.8 12.7 4.0 8.1 6.6 13.2
Indepen-dent 11.7 12.4 11.3 7.9 14.0 16.2 8.1 14.4
Leans Republican 10.0 9.8 9.3 1.6 12.0 12.6 11.5 9.1
Republican 8.8 15.7 15.8 22.2 14.0 13.5 19.2 14.3
Strong Republican 6.2 15.9 18.0 17.5 12.0 11.7 32.7 8.6

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Partisanship and Genderamong Floridas Latinos

• Male Female
• Democrat 45.3
  44.5
• Republican 20.0
  15.6
• Independent 9.1
  7.5
• Dont Care 11.9
  14.2
• Dont Know 13.7
  18.3

42
Citizenship and Issue PositionsProblem Facing
the Country-National and Florida

• Citizen FL Non-citizen FL
• Iraq War 30.1 35.0
  33.0 37.6
• Economy 14.2 15.8
  12.1 12.1
• Illegal
• Immigration 9.0 6.3
  15.0 9.5
• Education/
• Schools 4.1 2.2
  1.1 1.6
• Other 12.3 11.7
  7.0 8.8
• What do you think is THE one most important
  problem facing the country today?

43
Partisanship and Issue PositionsProblem Facing
the Country

• Democrat FL Republican FL
  Independent FL
• Iraq War 34.0 34.5
  29.9 40.3 27.5
  36.6
• Economy 14.6 17.4
  12.9 13.1 12.7 12.7
• Illegal
• Immigration 9.5 7.6
  12.7 5.5 16.9
  9.9
• Education/
• Schools 3.9 2.7
  2.3 1.3 1.5
  1.4
• Other 10.5 11.7
  12.8 11.0 10.9
  8.5
• What do you think is THE one most important
  problem facing the country today?

44
Partisanship and Issue PositionsPreferred Party
to Address Problem Facing Country

• Dems FL Reps FL Neither
  FL Dont FL
• 
  
  Know
• Democrat 38.2 41.9 6.4 5.8
  40.1 37.4 14.5 15.0
• Republican 8.8 4.2 30.4 41.1
  45.6 44.1 15.3 10.6
• Independent 12.4 2.7 6.2 3.9
  51.6 58.2 29.7 35.3
• Dont Care 6.6 5.2 4.1
  5.5 42.5 46.3 46.8 43.0
• Dont Know 5.9 6.7 4.9 10.0
  34.3 30.1 54.9 53.3
• Which political party do you think has a better
  approach to address this problem?

45
Citizenship and Issue PositionsProblem Facing
Latinos

• Citizen FL Non-citizen FL
• Illegal
• Immigration 25.4 25.0
  34.6 39.8
• Education/
• Schools 13.8 12.0
  3.6 2.9
• Unemp/Jobs 11.6 9.2
  12.7 13.4
• Iraq War 1.6 1.6
  1.6 1.0
• Other 12.8 15.5
  9.1 7.9
• What do you think is THE one most important
  problem facing the Latino community today?

46
Partisanship and Issue PositionsProblem Facing
Latinos

• Democrat FL Republican
  FL Independent FL
• Illegal
• Immigration 27.8 30.3
  28.1 27.9 33.2 37.3
• Education/
• Schools 12.9 10.6
  9.5 10.7 6.0 6.2
• Unemp./Jobs 12.2 9.5
  12.0 15.4 12.1 6.5
• Iraq War 1.6 1.6
  1.8 1.1 1.6
  1.6
• Other 12.4 15.6
  13.5 14.0 10.9 10.6
• What do you think is THE one most important
  problem facing the Latino community today?

47
Partisanship and Issue PositionsPreferred Party
to Address Problem Facing Latinos

• Dems FL Reps FL
  Neither FL Dont FL
• 
  
  Know
• Democrat 41.7 46.8 5.7
  2.5 37.7 36.9 14.9 13.8
• Republican 12.9 9.3 24.5 32.2
  42.2 41.2 20.4 17.3
• Independent 10.0 7.8 7.7 8.6
  50.3 48.9 32.1 34.7
• Dont Care 8.7 6.2 4.1
  6.9 41.8 37.7 45.4 49.2
• Dont Know 7.6 10.3 4.3 3.0
  30.4 31.5 57.8 55.2
• Which political party do you think has a better
  approach to address this problem?

48
Public Policy Issues and Cuba
49
Resumption of U.S. Diplomatic Relations with Cuba
50
First Generation
Second Generation
Third Generation
Fourth Generation
Positions on Diplomatic Relations with Cuba by
Generation
51
Position on Diplomatic Relations with Cuba by
Ideology
52
Latino National Survey Executive Summary
Demographic Tables Background Tables
Questionnaire and Toplines

• Available at the website of the Washington
  Institute for the Study of Ethnicity, Race, and
  Sexuality (WISER), University of Washington,
  Seattle
• http//depts.washington.edu/uwiser/LNS.shtml