Population Composition and Redistribution

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Population Composition and Redistribution

• Population composition of rural and
  nonmetropolitan areas (age, sex, race/ethnic)
• Discuss population change and redistribution over
  time

2
Comparing Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan
Counties

• Current U.S. population
• U.S. population in 2000
• Metropolitan population in 2000
• Nonmetropolitan population in 2000

3
Population trends

• The age group of 65 is the fastest growing age
  group in the population
• By 2030, one in every five Americans will be 65
  or older
• Expected to double by the year 2050
• Rural out migration of young people

4
The Rural Elderly

• Between 1960 and 2000 an increase in the
  nonmetro proportion of population ages 65 and
  older
• What factors are influencing the increasing
  proportion of elders in nonmetro areas?
• Are some nonmetro areas getting gray faster than
  others?
• Why?

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The Rural Elderly

• Within nonmetro counties
• Higher proportion of elderly in urban than in
  rural areas
• Nonmetro urban areas attractive to retired rural
  people and rural people who live in isolated
  areas

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The Rural Elderly

• What are some of the issues raised with an aging
  population?
• Do the issues of elderly populations differ with
  the reasons for increasing shares of elderly
  populations?
• What are some of the issues raised with an aging
  population?

7
Baby Boomers and Young People

• Baby Boomers starting to grey
• Young people likely to leave rural areas
• What are the implications of different age
  structures for an area?

8
Sex Composition

• Sex ratio number of males/100 females
• More women in both metro and nonmetro areas
• Nonmetro areas boast a higher proportion of men
• What is the importance of the sex composition of
  the population?

9
Women in Pennsylvania

• Women in rural PA are doing well in education,
  family life stability, and health, compared to
  rural men and urban men and women
• Rural women in PA do not fare as well
  economically as the comparison groups

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Race Composition, 2000(percentage of population
in each group)

• From Kandel, ERS report on race and ethnicity

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Race Composition

• 17 (9.7 million people) of the nonmetro
  population was comprised of minorities in 2000
• Within both metro and nonmetro areas, the urban
  components are more diverse than the rural areas
• Similarly, both urban and rural nonmetro
  components are less diverse than their
  metropolitan counterparts

12
Race Composition

• In 1990, nearly half of the rural minorities
  lived in counties with substantial minority
  populations (more than 1/3 of population)
• 333 out of 2,288 nonmetro counties
• 208 Black, 37 Native American, and 88 Hispanic
  counties were identified as high concentration
  counties
• 12 of the total nonmetro population
• Race and ethnic minorities are geographically
  clustered

13
Change in Minority Nonmetro Population

• All population groups grew more rapidly in metro
  than nonmetro areas
• But, there has been an increasing concentration
  of minorities in nonmetro areas, especially of
  Hispanics

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Change in Minority Nonmetro Population, 1990 to
2000
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Rural Hispanics

• From 1990 to 2000, Hispanics accounted for over
  25 percent of all nonmetro population growth
• During the 1990s, over 90 percent (2,155) of
  nonmetro counties experienced some Hispanic
  population growth
• Hispanic population growth in the 1990s prevented
  net population loss in more than 100 nonmetro
  counties

16
Change in Minority Nonmetro Population

• Since 1980, slightly fewer counties with high
  concentrations of Black residents
• The number of counties with more than 10 Indian
  or Hispanic residents has increased

17
Change in Minority Nonmetro Population

• Explanations for growth of Hispanic, Indian (and
  Asian) populations
• Census self-identification approach
• Changes in wording for Census race question
• Higher fertility (younger age) for minorities
• Immigration (for Hispanics and Asians)

18
Population Change and Redistribution

• Change in population over time
• The forces that influence change in the size of
  the population
• Redistribution of the population over space
  (across metro and nonmetro areas)
• The forces that are associated with population
  redistribution

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Metropolitanization of the population

• Continuation of metropolitanization process since
  1950
• Steady decline in the share of nonmetro and rural
  populations between 1950 and 1990
• mainly due to metro growth and the establishment
  of new metro areas from county reclassification
• Number of nonmet counties grew from 273 in 1950
  to 726 in 1990
• Number of metro areas almost doubled from 168 to
  over 300

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Population Redistribution and Change

• Metro areas continue to have faster population
  growth than nonmetro areas. WHY?
• But, does this pattern hold across all nonmetro
  counties?

24
Population Redistribution

• Declining counties found primarily in the Corn
  Belt, the Great Plains, southern Appalachia, the
  Mississippi Delta and other parts of the old
  South
• Some nonmetro areas experienced growth
• Nonmetro counties surrounding large cities
• Rapidly growing parts of the South, Southwest,
  Pacific Northwest, Rocky Mountain states (amenity
  areas)

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Population Redistribution and Change

• The number of nonmetro counties with decreasing
  populations rose between 1990-1995 and 1995-2000
• Greatest percentage decrease among mining and
  farming dependent counties
• Net inflow of newcomers from metro areas has
  declined
• Much of the decline occurred among college
  graduates

26
Population Redistribution and Change

• What are some explanations for in-migration to
  nonmetro areas?
• Why should we care about population
  redistribution and change?

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Why is This Topic Important?

• Implications for continued viability of local
  communities
• Population composition affects workforce size and
  age (dependency ratio)
• The demand for services and ability to pay for
  services depends on population composition and
  size
• Rural-urban shifts reflect long-term patterns of
  economic and social development plus changing
  patterns of migration

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Class Project

• Create Groups for Class Project
• Establish Timeline
• Assign Duties

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Next class

• The Importance of the Natural Environment for
  Rural Sustainability
• Brief introduction to environmental sociology
• The environment as a resource
• Ecological footprint and rural areas as a
  resource and waste depository
• Readings
• Chapter 6 Natural Capital in Flora Flora
• Change Recommended not Required Humphrey
  and Buttel (Eds.) article Exploring
  Environmental Sociology (online)