Special Report on Emission Scenario

1
??????????? ????????? ??????? ??? ???????????
???????? ?.?. ????????, ???????????????
??????????????? ????????, ?.????????? oleg_at_oa7661
.spb.edu
2
????????? ?????? ? ???????????? ????????? ???????

• IPCC Assessment reports

Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2005
?????????????? ??????? ????????? ??????? ? ??
???????????, 2005
3
????????? ????? 2 (?? 25) ??/??? ???????? 10 -
50 ?????? ?? 15 - 25 ?????????? ????????
??????? ?????????? ???????? ???????? ?? 70 (2.8
4.9 ?? ? ) ? 2050 ?????????? ????? ?????? ??
125 ???? ? ???? (????? 75 ????)

• IPCC, 2007

4
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences

Abisko Scientific Research Station
5
The mountainous Abisko areacompresses long
latitudinal gradients
6
Projecting changes by experiments
Environmental manipulation experiments seek to
understand environmental controls on ecological
processes and biodiversity in the context of
future environmental change
7
(No Transcript)
8

• Distance to areas with analogous climates

1945
2C
4C
disappearing climates
9
????????? ????????????? ????????????? ??????? ?
?? ???????????
10.01.2001
17.01.2001
10

• ?? ??????????? ??????, ????? 1978 ?????????????
  ??????? ??????? ??????????? ????? ??????????? ??
  2.7 ?? 10 ???, ???????? ?????? (7.4 ?? 10 ???)
  ? ?????? ??????, ????????? ????????????? ????????
  (4.3 ???. ??2) ?????? 2007 ?.

7.5 ???. ??2
5.5 ???. ??2
http//igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu