Special Report on Emission Scenario

1
???????? ?????? ?????????? ??????? ?????? ???????
?????? ????? ???????? ??????? Key findings of
the WG II IPCC Fourth Assessment Polar regions
?.?.?. ???????? ???? ?????????????, ??????????????
? ??????????????? ???????? Oleg_at_ oa7661.spb.edu
2
Authors team, Chapter 15 Fourth Assessment Report

• Coordinating Lead Authors
• Oleg A. Anisimov (Russia), David G. Vaughan (UK)
• Lead Authors
• Terry Callaghan (Sweden/UK), Christopher Furgal
  (Canada), Harvey Marchant (Australia), Terry D.
  Prowse (Canada), Hjalmar Vilhjálmsson (Iceland),
  John E. Walsh (USA)
• Contributing Authors
• Torben R. Christensen (Sweden), Donald L. Forbes
  (Canada), Frederick E. Nelson (USA), Mark Nuttall
  (Canada/UK), James D. Reist (Canada), George A.
  Rose (Canada), Jef Vandenberghe (The
  Netherlands), Fred J. Wrona (Canada)
• Review Editors
• Roger Barry (USA), Robert Jefferies (Canada),
  John Stone (Canada)

3
Chapter 15, WG-2. Table of Contents
4
Context of Chapter 15 Fourth Assessment Report

• Third Assessment Report
• Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
• International Polar Year
• Fourth Assessment Report - WGI

5
WG-I on climate change in the Polar Regions

• ? ????????? 100 ??? ??????????? ? ??????? ?????
  ? ??????? ????? ??????? ??????????. ? 1980-?
  ????? ??????????? ????? ? ?????? ?? ???????
  ????? ??????? ????????????? ???????? ?? 1 ? ??
  10 ???.

• ? ?????????? ?? ??????? ????? ??????????
  ????????? ?? ??????????, ?? ???????????
  ??????????????? ???????????, ??? ??????????
  ??????????

6
?????????? ?????? ??????????? ??????? ?? ?????
1961-1990 ?.
7
?????????? ???????? ??????????? ??????? ?? ?????
1961-1990 ?.
8
WG-I Chapter 4 (updated by 2007 data
http//igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu)

• ?? ??????????? ??????, ????? 1978 ?????????????
  ??????? ??????? ??????????? ????? ??????????? ??
  2.7 ?? 10 ???, ???????? ?????? (7.4 ?? 10 ???)
  ? ?????? ??????, ????????? ????????????? ????????
  (4.3 ???. ??2) ?????? 2007 ?.

7.5 ???. ??2
5.5 ???. ??2
9
WG-II Ch. 15 ????????? ??????????? ???????????
? ???????? ????????

• ??????? ?????, ???? ? ??????????????
• ?????? ????????, ?????????? ??????? ?????,
  ??????? ???? ? ????????????? ??????????
• ?????????? ???? ??????????? ?????????
• ??????????? ?????
• ??????? ???????.

10
WG-II Chapter 15 Executive Summary

• ????????? ??????? ? ??????? ??? ???????? ??
  ?????????, ??????????, ???????? ? ??????????????,
  ?????????? ? ?? ??????? ????? ????????.

11
?????? ????????, ???. ????????? ?????? ?? ?????
???? ????? ???? ???????? ????? ?? ????, ? ??????
??? ? ??? ?? ???? ?????? ??????. ???? ???????????
???????? ? 25 ???, ? ?????? ????? 10-15 ????. ?
?????? ? ???? ? ?????? ?????? ???????? ? ???????,
??? ????? ?????? ??? ????????????.
???????? ?????, ???. ???????? ??? ????????
????? ?? ????? ??????, ? ????????? ?????? ??
?????, ? ????? ?????. ??????, ??????? ??????
????????? ??????? ???, ?????? ????? ????.
????? ??????? ????????? ?? ???? ?? ???????,
?????? ?? ??????? ? ???????, ???????? ?? ???????
?????.
12
WG-II Chapter 15
??????????? ?????? ?????????
10.01.2001
17.01.2001
13
WG-II Chapter 15 Case Study Northern Cod
14
(No Transcript)
15
WG-II Chapter 15 Case Study Permafrost lakes

• ?????? ?????? ???????? ??????? ? ????????????
  ?????? ???? ? ?????? ? 1970-2004 ??.

Redrawn from Smith et al., 2005
16
WG-II Chapter 15
??????? ?????? ?????? ???????? ?? ??????????????
????? ?????? ? ??????? ?????????
???????? 10
????? 22
??????? 55
?????? 35
?????, ??????? 50
???? 60
??????? 80
(?????????, 2005)
17
WG-II Chapter 15 Arctic summary
18
WG-II Chapter 15 Priorities
19
??????????? ?? ?????????? ?????? ????? ???????
?????????? ?????.
?????? ????????? ??????
???????? ? ??. 2005, 2006 Anisimov, 2007
?????? ????????? ??????
??????? ?????
??????? ??????
?????? ?????? ?????? ?????
20
?????????? ?????? 6-8 M?/??? ????? ????? ?
????????? 12 ??? ?????????? ??4 ? ??????????
100??, ??? ?? ????? 0.04 ppm 1 ppm ??4 ????
????? 0.3 0? ?????? ????????? ????? ???? ?????
0.012 0?.
21
????????????-?????????????? ????????????? ???????
?????? ????????
??????????? ?????? (1991-2000)
Min (Zm-1.96 ? sz)
Max (Zm1.96 ? sz)
???????, Zm
??????? ?? 2050 (?? ?????? 5 GCMs)
22
????????????-?????????????? ????????????? ???????
?????? ????????
??????????? ??????
??????????? ??????? ?? 2050
??????? ????????? ??????
lt0.8 ?
0.8-1.5 ?
1.5-1.8 ?
gt1.8 ?
23
??????? ????????????????? ??????????
??????? ??????? (1), ?????????? (2) ? ????????
????? ??????????? ???????? ??????????
?????????????? ??? ?????? ?????? ????????