Twentieth Century

1
Twentieth Century Future Trends
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N.H. Surface Air Temperature
(IPCC TAR)
3
Surface Air Temperature
(IPCC TAR)
4
Surface Air Temperature
(IPCC TAR)
5
Trends in Temperature
(IPCC TAR)
6
Trends in Temperature
(IPCC TAR)
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Trends in Temperature
(IPCC TAR)
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Seasonal Temperature Trends
(IPCC TAR)
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Trends in Diurnal Temperature Range

• 1950-1993
• Non-urban stations only

(IPCC TAR)
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Diurnal Temperature Range vs. Cloud Cover

• cloud cover - solid
• DTR (C) - dashed

(IPCC TAR)
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Lower Troposphere Trends
(IPCC TAR)
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Lower Stratosphere Trends
(IPCC TAR)
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Glacier Retreat
(IPCC TAR)
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N.H. Snow Cover Extent
(IPCC TAR)
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N.H. Sea Ice Extent
(IPCC TAR)
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S.H. Sea Ice Extent
(IPCC TAR)
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Arctic Sea Ice Thickness
(IPCC TAR)
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Precipitation Trends
(IPCC TAR)
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Precipitation Trends
(IPCC TAR)
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Surface Vapor Pressure Change
(IPCC TAR)
(1975 - 1995)
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Changes in Extremes
(IPCC TAR)
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Change in Precipitation
(Heavy above 90th percentile periods gt 50
yr.)
(IPCC TAR)
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Change in Annual Max5-d Prec.
(period 1946 - 1999)
(IPCC TAR)
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Change in Annual Max5-d Prec.
(period 1946 - 1999)
(IPCC TAR)
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Changes in Hurricanes
U.S. Landfall Hurricanes
Category 3-5 in North Atlantic
(IPCC TAR)
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Changes in Tornadoes
(IPCC TAR)
Reported F3-F5 Tornadoes in U.S. (Dashed line
based on storm damage reports)
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(IPCC TAR)
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(IPCC TAR)
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NH Reconstructed T vs. Candidate Forcings
NH Temperature
Solar
Log(CO2)
Correlation of 200-yr running average NH
temperature vs. forcings
Dust Veil Index
(Mann et al. 1998)
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Performance of GCMs - Control Climates
(IPCC TAR)
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Performance of GCMs - Control Climates
Note 50 of earths surface is between 30
latitude
(IPCC TAR)
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Performance of GCMs - Control Climates
(IPCC TAR)
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Performance of GCMs - Control Climates
(IPCC TAR)
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Performance of GCMs - Control Climates
Note 50 of earths surface is between 30
latitude
(IPCC TAR)
35
Performance of GCMs - Control Climates
(0.5 ? 50 of 15 models give ice at location)
(IPCC TAR)
36
Natural Variability vs. Obs. Variability
GCMs with no forcing changes
Observed
(IPCC TAR)
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Global Model T vs. Obs. T
Ensemble of GCMs with solar and volcanic forcing
changes
(IPCC TAR)
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Global Model T vs. Obs. T
Ensemble of GCMs with GHG, O3 and aerosol forcing
changes
(IPCC TAR)
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Global Model T vs. Obs. T
Ensemble of GCMs with natural and anthropogenic
forcing changes
(IPCC TAR)
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Spatial Distribution of T Trends
(IPCC TAR)
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Spatial Distribution of T Trends
Ensemble mean of 5 GCMs (R30 resolution)
(IPCC TAR)
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Spatial Distribution of T Trends
Grey Observed trends within the natural
variability of the R30 GCM
(IPCC TAR)
43
Spatial Distribution of T Trends
Grey Observed trends within the natural
variability of the R30 GCM
(IPCC TAR)
44
Change in Daily maxT for June-July-August (RegCM
2 simulation 2040s - 1990s)
C
Pan et al. (2004)
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Change in Daily maxT (RegCM2 simulation 2040s
- 1990s)
Pan et al. (2004)
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Change in LLJ Frequency
Change in Soil Moisture mm
RegCM2 simulation 2040s - 1990s
Pan et al. (2004)
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Changes in Precipitation, Evaporation, Sensible
Heat Flux
RegCM2 simulation 2040s - 1990s
Pan et al. (2004)
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Emission Scenarios Special Report on Emission
Scenarios (SRES)
A1 - Very rapid economic growth global
population peaks 2050 rapid introduction of
new, efficient technologies substantial
reduction of social/econ. differences A2 - Very
heterogeneous world continuously increasing
population fragmented introduction of new
technologies B1 - Very rapid economic growth
global population peaks 2050 transition to
service/information-based economy clean,
resource-efficient technologies B2 - Very
heterogeneous world continuously increasing
population (lower than A2) fragmented
introduction of new technologies oriented toward
environmental protection and social equity (Also
- IS92 scenarios - older)
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Global T Change A2 B2
(IPCC TAR)
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Global Precip. Change A2 B2
(IPCC TAR)
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Temperature Change (2071-2100) minus (1961-1990)
Multi-model ave. ?T (colors), range (blue), ave.
?T/SDEV (green)
(IPCC TAR)
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Temperature Change (2071-2100) minus (1961-1990)
Multi-model ave. ?T (colors), range (blue), ave.
?T/SDEV (green)
(IPCC TAR)
53
Precipitation Change (2071-2100) minus
(1961-1990)
Multi-model ave. ?P (colors), range (red), ave.
?P/SDEV (green)
(IPCC TAR)
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Precipitation Change (2071-2100) minus
(1961-1990)
Multi-model ave. ?P (colors), range (red), ave.
?P/SDEV (green)
(IPCC TAR)
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(IPCC TAR)
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(IPCC TAR)
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Twentieth Century Future Trends END