IPCC Special Report Emission Scenarios SRES

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IPCC Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES)

• Climate projections require GHGs emissions
  projections
• GHGs emissions projections are the result of
  complex dynamic systems determined by driving
  forces such as
• Demographic development
• Socio-economic development
• Technological changes
• The evolution of these different forces is highly
  uncertain
• Scenarios are images of how the future might
  unfold

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SRES Background

• Inherent complexity in the study of climate
  change addressed by developing Integrated
  Assessment Models (IAM) for predicting greenhouse
  gas emissions and effects on the climate.
• IPCC to release a SRES designed as a tool to
  evaluate the possible GHG emission outputs for
  the next 100 years given the inherent uncertainty
  about future global social and economic
  conditions.

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Scenarios General Description

• SRES uses 6 IAMs a range of possible outputs
  for emission levels for 10 greenhouse gases,
  regions economic viability (GDP/GNP), energy
  technology in use, resources in use, land use,
  and carbon sequestration rates.
• Possible scenario outcomes limited by
  establishing 4 broad scenario families,
  corresponding to possible future world
  situations.
• Scenarios have narrative storyline to describe
  global social, economic, technological,
  environmental, and policy differences.

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Broad Scenarios Categories

• A1 a world of very rapid economic growth, low
  population growth, and rapid introduction of new
  and more efficient technologies.
• A2 a heterogeneous world high population growth
  and slow economic growth and technological change
• B1 a world with low population growth, rapid
  change to an information and service economy,
  corresponding to cleaner technology and less
  reliance on natural resources.
• B2 a world reliant on local solutions to global
  problems population growth is moderate,
  intermediate levels of economic development exist
  and diverse technological change

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Four A1 Sub-categories A1B, A1C, A1G, and A1T

• A1C is a high resource use scenario, reliant on
  coal burning
• A1G is also high resource use, reliant on oil and
  gas
• A1B is a moderate resource user with a balanced
  use of technologies
• A1T is also a moderate resource user, but it has
  focused on technological change and moved towards
  non-fossil fuel technology.

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