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MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS AND THE INDUSTRIAL
SECTORS COMPETITIVENESS Rome June 19, 2002
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Chart 1 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (indexes
1990100)
Source Istat,Thompson Financial, Csc rapid
survey.
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Chart 2 - ITALY BUSINESS CONFIDENCE (Seasonally
adjusted data)
Source Isae.
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Chart 3 UNITED STATES INVENTORY VARIATION(as
a of GDP)
Source Thompson Financial.
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Chart 4 UNITED STATES EXTERNAL DEFICIT(as a
of GDP)
Chart. 5 REAL EXCHANGE RATES () (indexes
1990100)
Source Thomson Financial.
() Deflated with labor cost.
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Chart 6 - JAPAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (indexes
January 1990100)
Chart 7 MOODYS RATING
Source Thomson Financial.
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Chart 8 FUTURES ON 3-MONTH RATES
June 2002
Euro area
United States
Chart 9 INFLATION IN THE UNITED STATES AND IN
THE EURO AREA
Source Thomson Financial, Eurostat.
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Chart 10 PRODUCER PRICES IN THE EURO
AREA(y-o-y changes)
Chart 11- INFLATION RATE DIFFERENTIAL
ITALY-EURO AREA
Source Eurostat.
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Chart 12 CURRENT EXPENDITURE NET OF INTEREST
PAYMENTS IN REAL TERMS (Deflated with consumer
prices)
Base scenario
B
C
A
Alternative A balanced budget in 2003, fiscal
reform. Alternative B A higher GDP
growth. Alternative C B emergence of
underground economy. Source Istat, Csc.
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Chart 13 EMPLOYMENT IN SELECTED EURO AREA
COUNTRIES (Indexes 1995100)
Source Eurostat, Istat.
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FIXED CAPITAL PER EMPLOYEE ( 1970100 ) AND
LABOR MARKET RIGIDITIES
Chart 14 -
Chart 15
Labor market rigidities
Source Ocse
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Chart 16 SHARE OF EMPLOYMENT IN MANUFACTURING
FIRMS WITH LESS THAN 100 EMPLOYEES
Chart 17
Source National censuses.
Source Fortune (2001).
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Chart 18 - PERCENTAGE OF SELF EMPLOYED WORKERS
OVER THE TOTAL NUMBER OF WORKERS IN
NON-AGRICULTURAL SECTORS
Chart 19
Source Ocse.
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Chart 20 NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES NOT COVERED BY
ARTICLE 18 OF THE WORKERS STATUTE (Year 2000)
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Chart 21 PRODUCTION IN MANUFACTURING
SECTORS (Indexes 1995100, constant prices)
Source CSC calculations based on Asi data.
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Chart 22 SHARE OF WORLD PATENTS IN SELECTED
INDUSTRIES 1990-2000
Source Cespri-Epo database.
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MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS AND THE INDUSTRIAL
SECTORS COMPETITIVENESS Rome June 19, 2002