NOMINATIONS%20AND%20CAMPAIGNS

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NOMINATIONS AND CAMPAIGNS
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Presidential vs Congressional Campaigns

• More voters
• More competitive
• Less incumbent advantage

• Lower turnout in midterm elections
• Take more credit for individual projects
• Able to distance themselves from DC
• Franking privileges
• Coattail effect has declined

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RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT
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Getting Mentioned

• Off the record to reporters
• Make speeches
• Fame
• Associated with major piece of legislation
• Governor

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Money

• Individuals
• Political Action Committees

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Organization

• Fund raisers
• Lawyers
• Accountants
• Pollsters
• Volunteers
• Position papers

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Competing for Delegates

• Caucus
• Neighborhood?countycongressional district?state
  conventionnational convention
• Primary
• McGovern-Fraser Commission
• Superdelegates
• Frontloading

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Evaluation of Primary and Caucus

• Disproportionate attention to early caucuses and
  primaries (Iowa and New Hampshire)
• Difficult to find time to run
• Money
• Low participation
• 5 of registered voters in caucuses (except Iowa)
  and 20 in primary
• Too much power to media

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Strategy and Themes

• Tone Positive or negative
• Theme trust, change, experience
• Timing heavy or light campaigning
• Targets Which voters will change their minds?

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Primaries and General Election

• Extreme in primary
• Center in general
• Clothespin Vote lesser of two evils

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Campaign Issues

• Position Issues
• Two opposing views
• Social Security, abortion, death penalty
• Can lead to party realignment
• Valence Issues
• Universal issues
• Strong economy
• Low crime
• Patriotism

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Federal Election Campaign Act (passed in 1971,
amended in 1974)
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1. Federal Election Commission

• Oversee elections to ensure the parties and
  candidates are complying with election rules

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2. Presidential Election Campaign Fund

• 3 voluntary check off box on income tax (11 of
  taxpayers)

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3. Partial Public Financing for Presidential
Primaries

• Presidential candidates who raise 5,000 on their
  own in at least 20 states can get individual
  contributions of up to 250 matched by the
  government (matching funds) If they accept
  federal support, they agree to limit campaign
  expenditures
• Bush and Kerry declined matching funds
• Minor party candidates (5-25 of vote) part of
  costs paid by the federal government

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4. General Election

• Public financing for major party candidates in
  general election
• Major party candidates receive fixed amount of
  money (75m in 2004)
• Kerry and Bush accepted this money

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5. Full Disclosure

• File with FEC
• List contributors
• Detail how money was spent

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6. Limited Contributions

• Individual contributions to presidential and
  congressional candidates 2,000 each (as of
  2004) and indexed to inflation (2,300 in the
  2008 presidential election.
• Originally 1,000 but changed by McCain-Feingold
  Act

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Campaign Finance Rules (1974)

• PACs
• One PAC per corporation, union, or association
• Register 6 months in advance
• At least 50 contributors
• Give to at least five candidates
• No more than 5,000 per candidate per election
• No more than 15,000 per year to national party

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Loopholes

• Soft money
• Funds NOT for specific candidates
• Get-out-the-vote
• Voter registration campaigns
• Bundling combining contributions to be given at
  once (makes more of an impact)

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Effect of Reforms

• Growth of PACs (4,217 in 2006) contributed
  288.6 m in 2004 House and Senate elections
• Party power has weakened
• Rich candidates can avoid rules
• Favors ideological candidates
• Favors incumbents they are more well known, so
  they can get the individual contribution
• Must enter race early because of the need to
  raise money

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Bipartisan Finance Reform Act of 2002
(McCain-Feingold Act)

• Banned soft money national parties can only
  receive hard money (individual contributions or
  PAC contributions)
• Limit on individual contributions raised from
  1,000 to 2,000 per candidate per election
  (indexed to inflation)

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Bipartisan Finance Reform Act of 2002

• Independent expenditures by corporations, labor
  unions, trade associations and (under certain
  circumstances) nonprofits are sharply restricted
  
• Barred groups from running issue ads within 60
  days of a general election (or 30 days before a
  primary) if they refer to a federal candidate and
  are not funded through a PAC (i.e., regulated
  funds)

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Bipartisan Finance Reform Act of 2002

• 527 Groups are not subject to contribution
  restrictions as long as political messages did
  not make explicit endorsements of candidates by
  using phrases, such as vote for, or vote against
• 424 million in 2004 (52 gave over 1 million
  213 gave over 100,000)

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Citizens United vs. Federal Election Commission
(2010)

• 5 to 4 decision
• Court held as unconstitutional a key provision of
  the McCain-Feingold Bipartisan Campaign Finance
  Act that places limits on how much corporations
  and unions can spend for or against political
  candidates toward the end of the campaign.
• 5 Roberts, Scalia, Kennedy, Thomas, Alito
• 4 (dissenting) Stevens, Ginsberg, Breyer,
  Sotomayor.

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Buckley v. Valeo (1976)

• Political contributions are speech within the
  meaning of the 1st Amendment.
• Individual persons can spend as much as they like
  to express their views on issues and/or
  candidates.
• Contribution limits directly to campaigns prior
  to an election are constitutional because the
  government has an interest in making sure there
  is no appearance of a quid pro quo arrangement
  through campaign donations.

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Citizens United (Nonprofit corporation)

• Produced a video Hillary during Clintons
  campaign in 2008

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Should corporations have the same 1st Amendment
rights as individuals?

• Yes Corporations are associations of individuals
  and are entitled to the same 1st Amendment rights
  as individuals.
• Any legislation that affects the political
  process should be suspect.
• No The side with more money should not dominate
  the political process by being able to
  out-contribute the opponents (a level playing
  field)
• 1st Amendment rights are for real persons, not
  artificial persons created the by State.

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VOTING FACTORS
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Incumbency

• In good economic times, party holding White House
  normally does well in poor times it does badly
  (pocketbook vote)
• Many who are doing well will vote against
  incumbent if country is not doing well because of
  friends or customers not doing well

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Character

• Honesty and reliability
• Opinion on crime, abortion, and school prayer
• Acting presidential (speaking well, dignified,
  compassionate, authoritative, reasonable, likable)

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Money

• Does not make a difference since each candidate
  gets same amount (If both candidates accept
  public funding.)
• Makes a difference in Congressional races
• High-spending incumbents do better than
  low-spending incumbents
• Average spending has increased over time
  (incumbent to challenger ratio 2.47)

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Non-factors

• VP nominee
• Political reporting
• Religion
• Abortion might affect who gets nomination
• New voting groups angry white males did not
  elect Republican Congress in 1994 and soccer moms
  did not elect Bill Clinton in 1996

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Party Identification

• More Democrats than Republicans, but Democrats
  lost 7 of 12 presidential elections since 1968
• Democrats less loyal (80 of Republicans vote
  party line, but 1/3 of Democrats voted for Nixon
  and 26 for Reagan)
• Republican attract a majority of independents,
  who are usually younger whites
• Higher percentage of Republicans vote

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Issues

• Prospective/Policy voting
• Voter learn about the issues
• Select best candidate
• Retrospective voting
• If voters look at how things have gone in the
  past and they like it, they will vote for
  candidate who will continue those policies (and
  vice-versa)
• Elections are decided by this factor

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Campaign

• Revive party loyalties
• Voters see how candidates handle pressure
• Judge character and core values

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Democratic Coalition

• African-Americans (most loyal)
• Mexican-Americans
• Puerto Ricans
• Jewish People (most loyal)
• Lost strong support of
• Catholics
• Southerners
• Union Members

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Republican Coalition

• Business people (most loyal)
• Farmers (volatile)
• Professionals
• Poor people (most are elderly and retired
  low-income blacks vote Democrat, but less than
  25 of Democratic vote)

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Party Realignment

• sharp lasting shift in the popular coalition
  supporting one or both parties
• new issue of utmost importance to the voters
  cuts across existing party divisions and replaces
  old issues that were formerly the basis of of
  party identification
• Five major shifts in American history

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1800 Elections

• Jeffersonian Republicans defeated the Federalists

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1828 Elections

• Jacksonian Democrats win

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1860

• Slavery issue
• Whigs (Constitutional Union Party) silent and
  fall
• Democratic Party split
• Northern part waffling
• Southern party in favor of slavery
• Republicans win with Lincoln

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1896 Elections

• Economic causes (depressions)
• Republicans defeat William Jennings Bryan
• Republicans urban, workers, and businesspeople,
  Catholics, Lutherans
• Democrats farmers, small towns, low tariffs, and
  rural interests, fundamentalists
• North/South became East/West

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1932 Elections

• Great Depression
• Roosevelt Democrats win
• Democrats urban workers, northern blacks,
  southern whites, Jewish voters

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Party Decline

• Ticket splitting increasing
• Leads to divided government
• Office bloc (Massachusetts ) ballot list
  candidates by office
• Party-column (Indiana) ballot can vote straight
  party with one mark

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Campaign Finance Rules (1974)

• GENERAL
• Federal Election Commission (6 people)
• Full disclosure of donors (100 or more)
• No cash contributions over 100
• No foreign contributions
• No limit if candidate does not accept federal
  funding (up to 50,000 if he does)

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Campaign Finance Rules (1974)

• Individual Contributions
• No more than 2,000 per candidate per election
• An individual may not make federal political
  gifts exceeding 95,000 every two years, of which
  only 37,500 may go to candidates

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Campaign Finance Rules (1974)

• Presidential Primaries
• Matching funds for 250 donations or less
• Candidate must raise 5,000 in each of 20 states
  in 250 contributions or less to be eligible

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Campaign Finance Rules (1974)

• Presidential Election
• Major party candidates all costs up to a legal
  limit paid by the federal government (if they
  accept federal support)
• Minor party candidates (5-25 of vote) part of
  costs paid by the federal government