Demography

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Demography
Regional Demographics
Sectoral Demographics
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Projections and Weights
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100(Best-Worst)/2003 Value
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Developments Probability, Impact and
Timing
1 Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births) 1.1 General availability of very long term, low cost contraceptives. 59.9 -3.51 11.1
1 Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births) 1.2 China and India becomes 50 urbanized 52.3 -3.70 16.4
1 Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births) 1.3 Social marketing and public health education changes some critical health practices of 10 of people 62.6 -3.81 8.7
1 Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births) 1.4 Standard vaccinations of 70 of all children under five years 57.5 -4.46 7.2
1 Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births) 1.5 Maternal healthcare and nutrition used by 75 of women 49.3 -4.08 9.2
1 Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births) 1.6 Literacy rate of women in developing countries reaches 85 47.4 -3.57 11.9
1 Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births) 1.7 Number of people classed as poor grows by 15 60.5 3.08 7.6
1 Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births) 1.8 Number of people without safe water throughout the world diminishes by 50. 43.1 -3.92 8.4
2. Food availability Calories per capita in Developing Countries 2.1 Cost of shipping raised 20 due to counter-terrorism and/or disease prevention practices. 59.9 -3.60 4.8
2. Food availability Calories per capita in Developing Countries 2.2 Number of people without safe water throughout the world diminishes by 50. (See 1.8)) 43.1 2.66 9.6
2. Food availability Calories per capita in Developing Countries 2.3 New products for human nutrition (e.g. essentially free vitamin capsules) reaches majority in developing countries 45.9 2.76 9.5
2. Food availability Calories per capita in Developing Countries 2.4 Improvements in the system of food transport and distribution reducing food waste by 10. 57.5 2.76 7.6
2. Food availability Calories per capita in Developing Countries 2.5 Harvest reductions due to severe weather events (including climatic change) causing losses in a given year of 2 of the worlds crops 60.8 -3.73 7.8
2. Food availability Calories per capita in Developing Countries 2.6 Degradation/desertification of the soil causing losses in arable land of 3. 66.5 -4.13 10.2
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Weights
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Interpretation of Likelihood

• Likelihood by or before 2014
• 5 almost certain 90
• 4 very likely 75
• 3 as likely as not 50
• 2 unlikely 25
• 1 almost certainly not 5

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Interpretation of Impact Ratings
Impact (percent) (median of the panels
input-1) / 4 x (max plausible percentage)
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Maximum Plausible Impact
Variable Max Plausible Impact ()
Infant Mortality Rate (deaths per 1,000 live births) 3
Food availability Calories/capita Developing Countries 4
GNP per capita PPP (constant 1995 US) 20
Percentage of Households with access to safe water (15 Most Populated Countries) 8
CO2 atmospheric, ppm 10
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A Special Problem

• There were many cases where the impacts were
  obviously negative and yet the respondents
  answers indicated positive impacts.
• Why?
• Instructions about the possibility using a
  negative impact were not emphasized
• Because negative and positive impacts could
  be interpreted as either
• Moving the curve up or down
• Moving the curve in a beneficial or detrimental
  direction
• Intent
• A positive impact means that if the development
  were to occur, the variable it affected would
  increase in numerical value, even if this were a
  socially unfavorable direction.
• A negative impact would mean that if the
  development were to occur, the variable it
  affected would decrease in numerical value, even
  if this were a socially favorable direction.

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Solution Assigned Impact Values
4. Percent of Households with access to safe water (15 Most Populated Countries) 4.1 Cost effective desalination or other techniques increases safe water supply by 20 globally
4. Percent of Households with access to safe water (15 Most Populated Countries) 4.2 New agricultural practices reduce water consumption 10 per unit of agricultural production.
4. Percent of Households with access to safe water (15 Most Populated Countries) 4.3 Global climate causes frequent floods in some regions polluting the water drought in others, makes water 5 less available on the whole.
4. Percent of Households with access to safe water (15 Most Populated Countries) 4.4 Improved sanitation increases clean surface water by 5
4. Percent of Households with access to safe water (15 Most Populated Countries) 4.5 World population growth of 20 (See 2.10)
4. Percent of Households with access to safe water (15 Most Populated Countries) 4.6 Simple, very low cost, small water purification technologies able in the poorest regions
4. Percent of Households with access to safe water (15 Most Populated Countries) 4.7 Construction and use of high volume inter-watershed pipelines
4. Percent of Households with access to safe water (15 Most Populated Countries) 4.8 Terrorists contaminating water supplies supplies remain unusable for decades.
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Trend Impact Results
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Trend Impact Results (2)
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Trend Impact Results (3)
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Trend Impact Results (4)
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Trend Impact Results (5)
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SOFI 2004
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SOFI Comparison
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100 (Best- Median TIA)/Median
TIA worse than panels best
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Sensitivity Test

• Development Weapons of mass destruction used by
  terrorists to kill over 100,000 people
• Panel
• Probability by 2013 51.33
• Impact on the variable Terrorist Attacks,
  number of people killed or wounded 15.2
• Time for the impact 7 years
• New
• Probability by 2013 51.33
• Impact on the variable Terrorist Attacks,
  number of people killed or wounded 1,250
  (about 100,000 people)
• Time for the impact 0.25 years

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High Impact Event
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A Different Future
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Policy Simulation
Development Orig Prob Orig Impact Orig Timing New Prob New Impact New Timing
15.2 Weapons of mass destruction used by terrorists to kill over 100,000 people 51.33 1,250 0.25 10 1,250 0.25
9.4 Developed nations commit the resources necessary to end AIDS and treat HIV 52.6 -4.23 9.5 75 -50 5
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Effect of Policies