The Demography of Islam in Europe

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The Demography of Islam in Europe

• ERIC KAUFMANN
• Birkbeck College, University of London
• e.kaufmann_at_bbk.ac.uk

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Franco-Algerian Exceptionalism

• 60 pc of those with at least one Algerian parent
  claim no religion (Amiraux 2004)
• Majority of Algerian origin men marry out
• Secular Kabyle and Harki loyalist traditions
• Appeal of French republicanism (??)

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Young Muslim Populations

• Britain 4.7 percent of those under 16 are
  Muslim, but just 0.6 percent of those over 65 are
  (2001)
• UK foreign-born population is 8.5 percent, but 1
  in 5 births are to a foreign-born mother
• Austria Muslims 8 percent of the under-10
  population but only 0.2 percent of those over 70

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Impact on Urban Youth Population

• Close to 'majority minority' or by 2050
  Rotterdam, Amsterdam, Antwerp, Strasbourg,
  Marseille, Duisburg, Cologne, Blackburn,
  Bradford, Leicester, Dewsbury..
• London 1 in 2 births
• Paris 1 in 3
• Turin 1 in 4, though just .2 percent of deaths
• Copenhagen 1 in 5, Rome 15

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Conclusion

• Muslims are 2-6 percent of western Europe
• Younger, more fertile, more religious
• We may expect falling fertility, but only limited
  intermarriage
• Secularization is limited
• Immigration a wild card
• By 2050, we expect 10-15 pc Muslim in western
  Europe. Some higher/lower
• Urban concentrations