The Non-Regulatory Alternatives to GHG Regulations

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The Non-Regulatory Alternatives to GHG
Regulations Geo-politics, Geo-economics and
Geo-engineering Session C - Thursday, October
18,2007, 1045 am 1215 pm Outlook for and
Impact from Potential GHG Emission Regulations
David W. Schnare, Esq. Ph.D., Senior Energy and
Environmental Fellow Thomas Jefferson Institute
for Public Policy
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The Environmental Challenge

• Global Temperature Rise
• The Cataclysmic Results of Warming

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The Environmental Challenge
Q There's a lot of debate right now over the
best way to communicate about global warming and
get people motivated. Do you scare people or give
them hope? What's the right mix? Mr. Gore I
believe it is appropriate to have an
over-representation of factual presentations on
how dangerous it is, as a predicate for opening
up the audience to listen to what the solutions
are, and how hopeful it is that we are going to
solve this crisis. Source http//techgnostic.ne
wsvine.com/_news/2007/03/15/615696-gore-appropriat
e-to-have-an-over-representation-of-factual-presen
tations
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What are the Risks

• Preventable Catastrophic Effect - massive
  ocean level rise
• Unpreventable Effects -
  coral reef loss
• Reversible Effects
  - Tundra melt

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• The Strategic Response
• We need to prevent catastrophic effects.
• If we fail to avoid the changes that threaten
  global civilization, the other effects become
  moot.

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• The First Three
• Catastrophic Events
• Greenland Ice Sheet Collapse
• West Antarctic Ice Sheet Collapse
• East Antarctic Ice Sheet Melt

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Rapid, Irreversible and Massive Effects The
Larsen Ice Shelf.
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Florida in 30 Years
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The Fatal Policy Conceit Exclusive Reliance on
Reducing Greenhouse Gases will prevent
catastrophic events.
It will not.
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Time Scale of the Greenland Ice Sheet Destruction
300 1,000 years IPCC (2001) 100 300 years
Hansen (2005) IPCC (2007) 20 40 years Hansen
(2007) Flannery (2007)
If we have not already passed the dangerous
level, the energy infrastructure in place ensures
that we will pass it within decades not
centuries. James Hansen NASA (Aug. 2007)
We passed the tipping point in 2005 Tim
Flannery (Aus.) (Oct. 2007)
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Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Catastrophic Effects

• Greenland Ice Sheet will melt at 2ºC
• 2ºC Temperature rise at 440 ppm

• Current levels 445 ppm CO2

Flannery IPCC http//news.lp.findlaw.com/ap/o/51
/10-09-2007/9896000bd89c6bb9.html
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Why Will We Fail To Reduce Greenhouse Gases in
Time?
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Congressional proposals are too little too late.
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(No Transcript)
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Key Nations Cant or Wont Help
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China, India, Indonesia and African nations said
they wont follow the cartel and limit CO2
production until they have significantly
increased their economic development.
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The McKinsey Global Institute projects that from
2003 to 2020, the number of vehicles in China
will rise from 26 million to 120 million, average
residential floor space will increase 50 percent
and energy demand will grow 4.4 percent annually.
Even with "best practices" energy efficiency,
demand would still grow 2.8 percent a year,
McKinsey estimates. The Washington Post (August
15, 2007)
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Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Rejects Binding
Greenhouse Gas Limits International Herald
Tribune (August 17, 2007)
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Bryan Walsh of Time Magazine thinks that as long
as China and India send out signals that
they're unwilling to consider substantial
global-warming action especially anything that
could result in mandatory targets on emissions
even green Democrats in Congress will have a
difficult time defending carbon controls at home
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Key States Cant or Wont Help
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The Current Virginia Energy Plan will fail to
produce an 80 reduction in CO2 by 2100.
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Virginia Energy Plan - 2007
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People Wont Reduce their Energy Enough.
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(No Transcript)
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It Costs Too Much
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Probability of Stopping a 2ºC Rise Marginal Cost Per Ton of Carbon (US 2005) Marginal Cost Per Ton of Carbon (US 2005) Marginal Cost Per Ton of Carbon (US 2005)
Low Estimate Average Estimate High Estimate
75 1,400/tnC Impossible Impossible
50 130/tnC 3,500/tnC Impossible
25 20/tnC 90/tnC 3,500/tnC
100 Geo-engineering 0.02/tnC 0.10/tnC
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Geo-Engineering The Non-Regulatory Alternative
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Preventing a planet wide meltdown is not a goal
that can be achieved with current energy
technology. We need to admit that and start
thinking about geo-engineering." Professor Marty
Hoffert, New York University.
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We need an alternative to the policy myopia that
sees emission reductions as the sole path to
climate change abatement. Jay Michaelson (JD
Yale) , 1998, GEOENGINEERING A CLIMATE CHANGE
MANHATTAN PROJECT, Stanford Environmental Law
Journal
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Efforts by societies to restrain their greenhouse
gas emissions might be politically infeasible on
a global scale, or might fail. In this
eventuality, other options may be incapable of
countering the effects, and geo-engineering
strategies might be needed. National Academy of
Science Policy Implications of Greenhouse
Warming (1992)
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The very best would be if emissions of the
greenhouse gases could be reduced so much that
the geo-engineering would not need to take place.
Currently, this looks like a pious
wish. Paul J. Crutzen, Nobel Laureate for his
work on the ozone hole
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Wall Street Journal Thinking Big on Global
Warming By FRED C. IKLE AND LOWELL WOOD October
15, 2007 Page A22 Mankind's current energy
system evolved during the 20th century as an
offspring of the Industrial Revolution. It may
take almost as long to replace this system with
the novel energy sources and distribution
networks that future generations will need. This
huge transition would be greatly facilitated if
geo-engineering options are developed and tested
to provide a safe breathing space without a
massive global-warming crisis.
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Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming NAS
1992 1.  Does it appear feasible that
engineered systems could actually mitigate the
effects of greenhouse gases?
YES
NAS 1992 Response -
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Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming NAS
1992
2.  Does it appear that the proposed systems
might be carried out by feasible technical means
at reasonable costs?
YES
NAS 1992 Response -
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Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming NAS
1992
3.  Do the proposed systems have effects, besides
the sought-after effects, that might be adverse,
and can these be accepted or dealt with?
We Dont Know
NAS 1992 Response -
Caldeira 2006 -
Apparently no significant local climate changes,
and no harm from particles
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Caldeira (Stanford U.) concluded that shading the
sunlight directly over the polar ice cap by less
than twenty-five percent would maintain the
"natural" level of ice in the Arctic, even with a
doubling of atmospheric CO2 levels. By increasing
the shading to fifty percent, and the ice shelves
grow. Further, the restoration happens fast.
Within five years, the temperature would drop by
almost two degrees, stabilizing the ice, saving
the polar bears and the Inuit population, and
demonstrating the efficacy of planetary
engineering for 1/36th the amount appropriated
to assist in recovery of the hurricane flooding
disaster in New Orleans. Because the aerosols
are launched only over the Arctic, there is
little danger of directly impacting humans. As
well, the approach is incremental and can be
expanded or shut down at will so that temperature
effects dissipate within months, returning the
region to its "natural" state.
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Hansen, J. et al., (2005) Earths Energy
Imbalance Confirmation and Implications,
Science 308, 1431.
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• Stratospheric reflecting aerosols
• Controlled scattering of incoming sunlight by
  airborne
• microscopic particles (residence time 5 yrs)
• Dielectrics e.g., 100 nm sulfate
  aerosol-spherules annual mass (1 MT) cost
  (1 B) E.g., lofted
  by a wing of 6 high- altitude cargo aircraft
• Metals e.g., UV chaff, metallised
  micro-balloons low annual mass (0.05 MT)
  cost (0.2 B)
• Resonant scatterers e.g., coated dye molecules
  annual mass (0.5 MT) and cost (1 B)
• Lowell Wood et al, Lawrence Livermore Lab

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The Relative Cost of GHG Reduction and
Geo-engineering
Marginal Cost per Carbon Ton Equivalent
GHG Reduction 1,400.
Geo-Engineering 0.02
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The Relative Cost of GHG Reduction and
Geo-engineering
Annual Per capita Cost (world population)
GHG Reduction 470.
Geo-Engineering (pv40) 0.003
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The economics of geo-engineering arethere is no
better word for itincredible. Scott Barrett,
Johns Hopkins The geo-engineering option may be
considered costless. William Nordhaus,
Yale Cost would not play any significant role in
a decision to deploy geo-engineering because
the cost of any such system is trivial compared
to the cost of other mitigation options. Prof.
D.W. Keith, University of Calgary
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So, what should we do about Greenhouse Gas
Reduction

• We need to move to non-carbon energy.

• We can take 300 years to do so.

• We probably should not bankrupt the family in the
  mean time.

• We should balance environmental goals against
  other social and economic goals, including growth
  in the economy, an aging population, health care,
  national security, and an abundant supply of
  chocolate.

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References and Readings Anderson, S. and R.
Newell (2004). Prospects for Carbon Capture and
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Holdren, P.L. Joskow, R.K. Lester, E.J. Moniz,
and N.E. Dodreas (2003). The Future of Nuclear
Power An Interdisciplinary MIT Study, Cambridge,
MA Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Barrett
, S. (2006a) Climate Treaties and Breakthrough
Technologies. American Economic Review, Papers
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(2007), The Incredible Economics of
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of Advanced International Studies (in press,
Environmental and Resource Economics). Bodansky,
D. (1996). May We Engineer the Climate?
Climatic Change 33 309-321. Caldeira, K., Jain,
A. K., and Hoffert, M. I. (2003) Climate
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2052-2054. Carlin, Alan, 2007, Implementation
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Climate Change Control, Sustainable Development
Law and Policy, 7(2) 56-8 (Winter), available at
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ment/2007/07winter.pdf?rd1 Carlin, Alan, 2007a,
Global Climate Change Control, Is There a Better
Strategy than Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions?
University of Pennsylvania Law Review, 155(6)
1401-1497 (June), available at http//pennumbra.co
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2007b, New Research Suggests that Emissions
Reductions May Be a Risky and Very Expensive Way
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Govindasamy, B., S. Thompson, P.B. Duffy, K.
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Stern, Nicholas (2007), Cambridge Cambridge
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The Non-Regulatory Alternatives to GHG
Regulations Geo-politics, Geo-economics and
Geo-engineering Session C - Thursday, October
18,2007, 1045 am 1215 pm Outlook for and
Impact from Potential GHG Emission Regulations
David W. Schnare, Esq. Ph.D., dwschnare_at_cox.net
Senior Energy and Environmental Fellow Thomas
Jefferson Institute for Public Policy