Dayton%20ASHRAE%20Chapter

1
Dayton ASHRAE Chapter

• Climate Change Ozone Depletion
• Tom Werkema
• March 10, 2008

2
Agenda

1. Climate Science Known Unknowns
2. Climate International
3. Climate Country Specific
4. Ozone Science
5. Ozone International
6. Ozone Country Programs
7. Industry Response
8. Personal Responses to Climate Change

3
Climate Change Science
4
What is the greenhouse effect?
Like the sun, the Earth also emits radiation.
It is much cooler than the sun, though, so it
emits in the infrared, just like a person, a cat,
or any other body. Some of that infrared energy
may be absorbed by molecules in the atmosphere,
affecting the global energy balance.
5
Venus has an atmosphere with more than 90 CO2.
It also has sulfuric acid clouds. Its planetary
greenhouse effect is about 500C (the atmosphere
raises the temperature by that much).
Earth has an atmosphere with much less CO2 than
Venus. The greenhouse effect raises its average
temperature by about 30C. The greenhouse
effect is basic physics and it is real. What
about greenhouse warming?
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The Atmosphere
CCS-2
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The 1990s were warmer than at anytime during the
last 1000 years
CCS-3
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CO2 Emissions
10/28/02-cc5
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Extent of Arctic Sea Ice 1979 and 2005
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Changes to clouds the biggest cause of
uncertainty in predictions

• Low clouds cool climate
• High clouds warm climate

Global warming will change cloud characteristics
and, hence, their warming or cooling
effect. This will exert a powerful feedback on
climate change, but this feedback will differ
from model to model.
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Antarctic Temperature Trends, 19662000
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Components of sea-level rise
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Ocean circulation in the North Atlantic
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US Hurricane Cycles Wax and Wane
6
12
5
14
5
15
4
12
6
14
8
17
10
24
8
19
5
13
7
21
4
18
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8.4
5.1
3.4
REF Natl Center for Atm. Presearch July, 2007
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Global Emissions Scenario
IS92 a IPCC 1992
Current estimates for emissions growth in
Non-Annex 1 countries are even higher
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Global Emissions for 550 PPM Stabilization
Stabilization is not feasible without Non-Annex 1
countries participation
IPCC 1994
30
Radiative Forcing
CCS-7
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Halocarbon Emissions, continued

• Combined CO2-equivalent emissions from
  halocarbons
• 7.5 Gt near 1990, about 33 of that year's CO2
  emissions from global fossil fuel burning
• 2.5 Gt near 2000, about 10 of that years CO2
  emissions from global fossil fuel burning

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1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
CO2
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
Date (year A.D.)
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Decay of tetrafluoroethane (T 14 years) in the
atmosphere compared to CO2
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
CO2
0.4
0.3
HFC-134a
0.2
0.1
0
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
Date (year A.D.)
34
Cut-off at a 100 year Integration Time Horizon
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
CO2
0.4
0.3
HFC-134a
0.2
0.1
0
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
Date (year A.D.)
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Climate Change International

36
Climate Change International

• August 1990
• June 1992
• March/April 1995
• December 1995
• July 1996
• December 1997

First IPCC Assessment Rio de Janeiro,
Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference
of Parties (1), Berlin Second IPCC
Assessment Conference of Parties
(II), Geneva Conference of Parties (III), Kyoto
37
Kyoto Protocol

• Controls Emissions
• 6 Greenhouse Gases
• CO2, N2O, CH4, HFCs, PFCs, SF6
• Avg. reduction for developed countries
• 5.2 from 1990 level
• 2015 reduction-1.7ppm to 381.3 ppm

38
Climate Change - International

• First Meeting of Kyoto Protocol Parties in
  Montreal, November, 05
• US non Party
• First Commitment Period 2008 thru 2012
• No Second Commitment or Period defined
• Canadian Environment Minister was President

39
Kyoto Protocol Meeting 2006 Nairobi

• Adaptation Fund creation
• Significant discussion by developing countries.
• May be used as tradeoff for developing country
  commitments
• Administrative rules were agreed

40
Bali - 2007

• Largest attended meeting ever
• More new NGOs
• Youth, Indigenous Peoples, Civil Society
• Agreement for 2 year negotiations
• Inclusive of US
• Under both UNFCCC and KP 2 tracks
• No developing country commitments
• Weak, voluntary language
• Negotiations completed in 2009
• Commitments commence in 2013

41
Other Climate Change

• Achim Steiner, UNFCCC Ex. Sec. requested
  emergency meeting General Assembly on climate
• Moon agreed September 24, 2007
• White House conference 13 countries 9/27.9/28/07
• IPCC released first 3 Working Group reports
• globally average net effect of human activities
  since 1750 has been one of warming
• 90 probability that climate change is manmade
• Massive populations at risk, plan/animal species
• Steiner noted MP contribution to KP goals MP 8
  GT, KP 2 GT, substitute HCFCs/HFCs add 1 GT

42
Other Climate Change

• G8 Climate Focus
• Aim to cut ghgs 50 by 2050
• Incorporate India/China
• 16 largest cities to reduce energy consumption in
  existing buildings Clinton Climate Initiative
• Houston, Chicago, NY
• ASHRAE Honeywell, Trane, Siemens, Johnson
  Controls conduct audits
• Clinton will attend Nov 1,2 Mayors Conference in
  Seattle

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Country Climate Programs
44
USA
45
EU F Gas Regulation

• Key sectors refrigeration, air-conditioning,
  heat pumps, high-voltage switchgear
• Reporting
• Production,imports, exports
• Marketing use bans limited
• Non-refillable containers
• Entered into force July 4, 2007
• Rules still being written

46
EU F Gas Regulation

• CONTAINMENT
• Stationary applications prevent/minimize leakage
• Number of annual checks depends on equipment size
• Maintain records of inspections
• RECOVERY
• Recover gases at end of life
• Certified personnel for recycling, reclamation,
  destruction
• Commission establish minimum requirements by 7/08
• LABELLING
• Containers of F gases
• Refrigeration, A/C equipment

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EU F Gas Regulation

• 2010 REVIEW
• Whether containment can extend to MAC
• Assess need for emission control from
  products/equipment
• Foam
• Technical product design
• Assess BAT/BEP
• Assess state of technology, particularly for
  foams
• Assess marketing prohibitions
• Technical feasibility
• Energy efficiency considerations

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EU Mobile A/C Directive

• lt50 gms HFC/year Emission
• If GWP gt 150
• Hammonized leak detection test
• lt 60 gms/year dual evaporation
• 1/1/11 no new model MAC gt 150 GWP
• 1/1/17 no new MAC gt 150 GWP
• Service allowed
• Abnormal leakage requires repair
• Review Procedure 12 months or 5 years after entry
  into force
• Honeywell/Dupont/Others announced low GWP
  alternatives
• Tailpipe emissions separate regulation

49
EU Emissions Trading

• 2005-7 covers energy, oil steel paper
• 2008 covers all large emitters
• MS allocate individually
• EU is bringing aviation into ETS.

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Price development in the EU ETS
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HFCs Country Program

• Denmark
• EC is pursuing infringement proceeding
• Law effective July 1, 2002
• Tax 7.90/LB HFC 134a
• General Use, including recycle use, in new
  products P/O 1/1/06
• Exceptions 1/1/02 District Heat Pumps
• Foam for joints
• Aerosol
• 1/1/06 Flexible foam
• 1/1/07 Cooling Plants, Heat Pumps,
  dehumidifiers, Refrigeration A/C over
• 10Kg

CCEU-6
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HFCs Country Program

• Denmark (cont)
• Exceptions Refrigeration A/C 0.15-10Kg
• A/C in Hermetic systems to 50Kg
• MACs
• Medical
• Lab
• Military
• Onboard Ships
• Servicing

CCEU-7
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HFCs Country Programmes

• Norway
• 180 NKr per ton CO2 equivalent
• Norwegian Industry Attempted to Overturn
• Got Agreement as Deposit

CCEU-9
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HFCs Country Program

• Switzerland HFCs Phase/Out
• 1/1/03 Aerosols, except MDI
• 1/1/03 Domestic refrigeration and freezers
• 1/1/03 Extinguishing agents (some exemptions)
• 1/1/03 Foams unless efficacy proven
• 1/1/03 Solvents
• 1/1/05 A/C (checked annually)
• 1/1/08 MACs (check annually)
• Existing Domestic A/C not included

CCEU-10
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HFCs Country Program

• Switzerland Ban HFCs effective July 1, 03
• Does Not Apply
• Some spray cans
• 1/1/04 Foams Manufacture
• Can Grant Derogation
• No Substitutes
• Solvents can grant derogation
• Limited time frame
• No alternatives
• Measures to avoid emissions

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Canada

• HFC restricted to ODS substitutes - whitepaper
• Concern over cross border influence under KP
• Harper versus Dion early summer election??
• Mandatory reporting in 2005
• Declared all GHGs CEPA Toxic

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Canada

• 2B over 5 years for implementation
• 1.3B for public transportation
• 0.77B for transit tax credits
• 5 ethanol fuel by 2010
• CAPS and absolute reductions by 2025
• 40-65 reductions from 2002 baseline by 2050
• Upstream oil shale produce 1/3rd Canadas GHG
  emissions 26.6 growth since 1990

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Canada

• 18 emissions intensity reduction by 2010, based
  on 2006
• 2 per year additional thereafter to 2020
• 15-20 safety valve for industry
• Alberta has proposed 12 intensity reduction
  between 7/1 and 12/31/07!!

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Why not Kyoto?

• The United States does NOT intend to
• undermine the efforts of Kyoto countries
• BUT
• Short time frames are not realistic
• Too few countries signed on to Kyoto
• emissions would just shift to others

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What is the U.S. view?

• Climate change is a serious issue
• It took decades to develop and may
• take decades to address
• Real, global environmental progress
• requires economic growth
• The key is to invest in cleaner,
• more efficient technologies

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US Climate Change 2006 emission

• Since 1990, intensity down 2 per year
• Total emissions have grown 0.9/yr
• 14.4 increase
• KP 7 decrease
• CO2 83.8, CH4 8.6, N2O 5.4, HFCsPFCsSF6
  2.2

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US Legislative/Regulatory Process

• Legislative any Congressman/Senator introduce a
  bill
• Referred to House/Senate Committee
• After deliberation, Committee moves to Floor
• Floor debate
• Sent back to Committee
• Voted and Approved
• Corresponding Bill in opposite Chamber
• Conference Committee resolves differences

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US Regulatory/Legislative Process

• Common Bill forwarded to President for Signature
• Veto
• Approve
• Implements Law
• EPA/DOE develop Regulations to implement

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US Congressional Discussions

• 2007 - 4 Major Bills in Senate same in House
• Do Ds give Bush this legislation?
• White House may be ready to discuss
• Lieberman-Warner out of Senate Envr Public
  Works Dec., 2007

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US Congressional Discussions

• Senate Bills include CAP Trade, reduction
  targets
• Lieberman/McCain
• Economy wide
• 2004 levels in 2012, 1990 by 2020
• 20 below 1990 in 2030, 60 below in 2050
• Sanders/Boxer
• 1990 level in 2020
• 27 below 1990 in 2030, 53 below in 2040, 80
  below in 2050
• Bingamen/Specter introduced July 13
• upstream cap trade in 2012 76 free
• 2006 by 2020, 1990 by 2030

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Lieberman-Warner

• Allowances emissions based per MT CO2e
• Track emissions EPA registry, regulations
• Registry w/I 180 days, rules by July 1, 2008
• Production, importation, exportation, consumption
• Annual and quarterly data
• 2004-2007 facility data required by March 31,
  2009
• 2008 and beyondquarterly data w/i 60 days EOQ
• Annual w/i 90 days EOY
• Subject to verification

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Lieberman-Warner

• Enforcement
• 25,000 per day per violation
• Emissions Allowances
• 2012 2005 levels
• 2020 15 below 2005
• 2030 33 below 2005
• 2040 52 below 2005
• 2050 70 below 2005

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Climate Change - States

• RGGI announced by 7 NE States
• CAP and Trade system CO2
• Begins 2009 w/current level CAP
• Frozen until 2015, then gradual reduction
• 10 reduction by 2019
• Focus on utilities
• Western states announced 2/07
• Links to RGGI
• 15 below 2005 in 2020
• Midwest states also considering
• US Mayors announced Clinton Climate Initiative,
  Nov 2007

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Climate Change - States

• Calif., NM, Oregon, Wash. develop low-carbon
  technologies and renewables
• NJ introduced Climate Legislation July
• 1990 levels by 2020
• 80 below 2006 in 2050
• California emissions reductions programs

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US Climate Change - Other

• Following Action in 26 Other States
• Executive orders
• Pending Legislation
• 32 States announced common Registry
• States implementing/working on reduction plans
• Emissions reductions Arizona, California,
  Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, New Jersey, New
  York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island,
  Texas, Washington, Wisconsin
• Energy reductions only Colorado, New Hampshire

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California Climate ActionAB 32

• Reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 12/31/20
• Interim reductions 7/1/12, 7/1/16
• Multi-sector, market-based program
• Establishes multi-Agency Climate Action Board
• CAB establishes GHG Emissions Reduction Plan
• Includes economics and benefits
• Multi-sector, market-based compliance
• 8.2MT CO2 equiv for F Gases
• Out of 170MT CO2 Total

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California Climate ActionAB 32

• CARB maintain GHG inventory
• Beginning 1/1/08, annual reports
• Largest stationary source Mandatory Reporting
• Oil gas extraction, oil refining, electricity,
  cement, landfills
• CARB can adopt fee schedule
• Multiple workshops Dec 06-July 07

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California Climate ActionAB 32

• Discrete Early Action Strategies implement by
  1/1/10
• Low carbon fuel standard
• Reduction of MAC refrigerant loss from
  non-professionals
• Increased landfill methane capture
• Green ports
• Reduction consumer products high GWP gases
• Reduction PFC in electronics
• Truck efficiency
• Tire inflation program
• SF6 reduction in non electrical

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California Climate ActionAB 32

• Other discrete early actions (direct regulatory
  action 44 measures total)
• HFC Venting control
• Ban HFC release servicing/dismantling
• A/C tightness checking
• Heavy duty vehicle emissions reduction
• Cool automobile paints
• Transport refrigeration, standby electric
• Business GHG reduction/guidance
• Anti-idling enforcement
• High GWP refrigerant tracking/reporting
• Alternative suppressants in fire suppression
  systems

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California Climate ActionAB 32

• Other discrete early actions (direct regulatory
  action 23 measures contd)
• Tire inflation
• Low GWP MVACs
• Port electrification
• Reduction of HFCs in foam
• Green ships
• Energy savings from cement mfg
• Workshop on Feb 15, 2008 HVAC R

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Climate Change Alliance Others
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BAU Scenario of HFC and HCFC Market Demand in U.S.
HCFCs
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Forms of Regulation for HFCs

• Command Control Regulations dictate form of
  solution
• Technology Standard e.g. California Proposed
  Early Action measures
• Ban/Phase-out e.g. MAC directive
• Inspection, repair, refrigerant recover e.g.
  HCFC rules in U.S., f-gas regulation
• Performance Standards Probably not applicable
  to HFCs
• Labeling Probably viewed as not sufficient
• Voluntary Programs Probably viewed as not
  sufficient

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Forms of Regulation for HFCs

• Market Based Mechanisms Allows market to decide
• Carbon Tax Government sets the price
• Carbon trading (cap and trade) Likely to be
  disruptive due to carbon price
• HFC cap with allocation similar to HCFC
  allocation Would allow maximum flexibility for
  market

90
Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) Carbon Prices
Refrigerant/Compound IPCC SAR GWP (Carbon price/kg _at_ 20/tonne CO2) IPCC/AR4 GWP (Carbon price/kg _at_ 20/tonne CO2)
HCFC-22 1820
HCFC-142b 2310
HFC-152a 140 (2.80) 124 (2.48)
HFC-32 650 (13.00) 675 (13.50)
HFC-245fa 1020 (20.60)
HFC-134a 1300 (26.00) 1430 (28.60)
HFC-4310mee 1300 (26.00) 1640 (32.80)
HFC-125 2800 (56.00) 3500 (70.00)
HFC-227ea 2900 (58.00) 3220 (64.40)
HFC-143a 3800 (76.00) 4470 (89.40)
R-410A 1725 (34.50) 2088 (41.76)
R-404A 3260 (65.20) 3922 (78.44)
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Alliance Others Activity

• Montreal Protocol allocation
• Essentially CAP Trade
• Declining CAP brought steady rise in product
  prices, which passed through market
• Customers demanded and producers brought lower
  ODP products to market

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L- W Title X

• Applies to Production, Import including Products
  or Equipment
• Baseline 300,000,000 MT CO2
• GWPs based on 4th Science Assessment
• Excludes recycled, recovered
• Destruction credits allowed (HFCs today, ODS?)
• Baseline year 2005
• HFC producer, importer, product/equipment importer

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L-W Title X

• Banking (5 year, destruction credit only) and
  Borrowing (3 year) allowed borrowing brings 10
  interest, 15 quantity limitation
• Commences 2010 2 prior year declining CAP thru
  2050 (70 total decline)
• Allocation to Producers/Importers 2004-2006 and
  on date of enactment
• Basis 100 of HFCs 60 of HCFCs, GWP weighted
  avg. 2004-2006

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L-W Title X

• Auction
• 5 of above in 2010, increasing to 100 in 2031
• Proceeds used for
• Recovery/destruction of ODS and GWP gases
• Consumer incentives for refrig./cooling equipment
• Refrigerants with low or no GWP
• Energy efficiency gt30 Fed. Energy std and Energy
  Star
• Development of low GWP HFCs
• Development of energy efficient technologies
• Programs under the broader auction

95
L-W Title X

• Permanent retirement not allowed, EPA can reclaim
  allocations
• Allowances not exchangeable with broader program
• Regulations 18 months after enactment
• No destruction credit for byproducts
• Ban on small containers of HFCs (lt20 pounds) for
  MAC

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Alliance Others Activities

• HFC CAP Trade Benefits
• Orderly transition to next generation technology,
  including HCFC to HFC transition
• Allows strategic business planning for both
  suppliers/users due to supply/pricing stability
• System familiar to regulated community
• Provides incentives for technology evolution
• Encourages recover/recycling
• Discourages frivolous uses

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Ozone -Science
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The Ozone Layer
Sun
Ultraviolet Radiation
Ozone layer
The ozone layer is a protective blanket that
filters out most of the harmful
ultraviolet Radiation from the sun. The ozone
layer lies in the stratosphere typically between
8 and 25 miles (13 to 40 km) above the Earths
surface.
AFEAS September 1993
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Production/Destruction of Stratospheric Ozone
Reservoir Components
O2 (molecular Oxygen)
Solar Ultraviolet energy
Source gases
Cl (active Species)
Solar Ultraviolet energy
Solar Ultraviolet energy
O (atomic Oxygen)
O3
O2
Ozone Destruction cycle
O2
Cl2O2
Solar Ultraviolet energy
O2
O3 (ozone)
ClO
O
ClO
Production
Destruction (e.g., by chlorine
100
Variability in the ozone hole

• Unusual ozone hole in 2002 due to
  dynamical variability

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Ozone Hole 2007
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Ozone Hole 2007
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Ozone Hole 2007
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Ozone Hole 2007
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Ozone Hole 2007
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Ozone Hole 2007
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Ozone Hole 2007
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Global Ozone Depletion
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Montreal Protocol International

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Montreal Protocol 2007HCFC Adjustments Developed
Countries

• New Schedule
• 2010 75 Reduction
• 2015 90 Reduction
• 2020-2030 0.5 service

• Old Schedule
• 65 Reduction
• 90 reduction
• 0.5 service

123
Montreal Protocol 2007HCFC Adjustments
Developing Countries

• New Schedule
• 2013 Freeze _at_ 2009, 2010 average
• 2015 10 reduction
• 2020 35 reduction
• 2025 67.5 reduction
• 2030-2040 2.5 service
• 2040 phase out

• Old Schedule
• 2016 Freeze _at_ 2015 levels
• 2040 phase out

124
Mexico

• Considering HCFC Allocation Program
• LicenseAllocationCap and Trade
• Focus on HCFC-141b, HCFC-22
• Encouraging consistency with US/Canada
• 10 year delay
• Incorporate new MP requirements
• First in any Developing Country

125
Refrigerant Responsible Use

126
Responsible Use
RUPs endorsed by Over 30 government Trade
associations
127
Responsible Use Guide

• Current steps
• Works w/i framework of RUP
• Market Sector Specific
• Being developed by each sector
• Target audiences in developing countries
• Voluntary development and implementation

128
Responsible Use Guide Update
Fire Protection first Guide, will be revised
129
Responsible Use Guide
Air conditioning Refrigeration The newest
guide
130
Responsible Use Guides
Refrigerators very Comprehensive for Foams
refrigeration
131
Responsible Use Guide Update

• Mobile Air Conditioning part of IMAC?
• HFC Producers
• Survey complete
• Draft RUG complete
• Circulating for company endorsement Europe, US,
  Far East
• Foams
• Survey complete 2005
• Summary complete late 2005
• Yet to find Association to take forward

132
Personal Responses to Climate Change

133
Driving

• Drive 10 less walk, carpool, public transit,
  in-line skate, telework
• Dont use car A/C, or use sparingly
• Give up 2nd vehicle
• Dont idle stop more than 10 seconds (except in
  traffic) turn off engine
• Drive at posted speed limit 62 mph to 75 mph
  20 more fuel
• Cruise Control

134
Driving

• Block heater when temp below 32F
• Winter fuel economy ? 10
• Vehicle maintenance
• Tire inflation 70 of vehicles have one tire
  over/under inflated
• Hybrid-electric vehicles
• Remove roof racks when not in use

135
Home

• Install energy-efficient furnace
• Caulking/weather stripping could be 20 of
  heat/ac loses
• Energy Star Label windows/sliding doors
• Install storm windows could be 25 of heat/ac
  loses
• Replace exterior doors
• Use window blinds
• Furnace maintenance every 2 years
• 1o? 5 energy savings programmable thermostat
• Seal/insulate warm air ducts
• Upgrade insulation

136
Home

• Lower thermostat - 2F2 ? heat bill
• Shut off pilot lights
• Ceiling Fans - 8 - 1.50/month (a/c 6-40)
• Remove window a/c in winter
• Florescent light bulbs light dimmers, occupancy
  sensors
• Window curtains open in winter, closed in
  summer
• Clean/replace a/c-heating filters
• Turn off all sources of heat in summer lights,
  appliances, electrical equipment
• Baking/washing/drying/ironing early morning or
  evening

137
Appliances

• Clean refrigerator coils regularly
• Energy Star
• Unplug second refrigerator or freezer
• Dishwasher no-heat/air dry cycle, not hand wash
• Maintain refrigerator _at_ 35F, freezer _at_ 0F
• Cloths rinse in cold, wash in warm water
• Dont overdry, hang clothes to dry
• Purchase dryer with moisture sensor
• Hot water tank pre 2004, insulate

138
Appliances

• Purchase front load washer 40 less water per
  load
• Efficient light bulbs-LED or fluorescent
• Install outdoor automatic timers
• Computer system with energy-saver option
• Computer running full time 70-100 energy per
  year
• Use sleep or hibernate mode
• Smart Strip Power Strip
• Use as little paper as possible
• Buy right size monitor
• Turn off computer at night 1/3rd left on
• 40 of appliance energy used when off

139
Lawn

• Capture/reuse rainwater
• Leave grass clippings on lawn
• Water early in morning
• Avoid chemical use
• Limit use of gas powered mowers, tools
• Pool efficiency
• Plant trees

140
Home Water

• Low-flow showerheads
• High-efficiency water heaters
• Quick showers
• Avoid running the tap
• Insulate water pipes (not w/i 6 of exhaust
  pipe)
• Turn off cottage water heater
• Turn water off when shaving/brushing teeth