The Human Population: Patterns, Processes, and Problematics Lecture

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The Human PopulationPatterns, Processes, and
ProblematicsLecture 11 Ch 7 Migration

• Paul Sutton
• psutton_at_du.edu
• Department of Geography
• University of Denver

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• The sole cause of mans unhappiness, quipped
  Pascal in the seventeenth century, is that he
  does not know to stay quietly in his room. If
  this is so, unhappiness is enjoying unprecedented
  popularity as people are choosing to leave their
  rooms, so to speak, in record numbers. Sometimes
  they are fleeing from unhappiness sometimes they
  are producing it. Always they are responding to
  and, in their turn, creating change. Because
  migration brings together people who have
  probably grown up with quite different views of
  the world, ways of approaching life, attitudes,
  and behavior patterns, it contributes to many of
  the tensions that confront the world, leading
  Kingsley Davis to comment that so dubious are
  the advantages of immigration that one wonders
  why the governments of industrial nations favor
  it. The popular literature reflects this
  ambivalence. Comments such as Emigration is an
  unnatural act between consenting adults. An act
  of desperation, endured by immigrants and hosts
  alike without gratitude or sympathy, a placebo,
  not a cure. Boat People arouse Japans
  xenophobia. Immigrants to Europe from the
  third world face racial animosity. and Black
  coalition frets over influx of skilled
  foreigners. reflect the concern surrounding the
  influx of strangers into our midst.

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Some migration trivia

• 150 million now live outside the country they
  were born in.
• This number is growing faster than the global
  population
• Mexican Adage
• Dont ask God to give it to you,
• ask him to put you where it is.

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Big International Migrations

• Mexicans to the United States
• Algerians to France
• Moroccans to Spain
• Turks to Germany

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The Migration Transition(part of the
demographic transition)

• Local population growth changes ratio of people
  to resources forcing migration
• Cheap ground, water, and air transportation works
  in tandem with population growth to create
  unprecedented migration streams

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Types of Migration

• Internal Migration (in U.S. defined as changing
  county of residence)
• International Migration (changing country of
  residence)
• Often Rural to Urban (in both cases)
• Rural to Urban migration contributes to
  demographic transition

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The Urban Transition (Ch 11)(migration has no
biological component)
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Interdependence of Migration, Fertility, and
Mortality

• Migration often has more local impact on a place
  than fertility or mortality
• These local effects can be significant for both
  sending and receiving areas

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Overview of Chapter 7

• How do we define, measure, and conceptualize the
  migration process?
• Why do people migrate?
• What are the consequences of migration?
• What are contemporary patterns of migration
  around the world today?

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Defining Migration

• A permanent change of residence
• Inherently spatial phenomenon (geographic)
• Mobility is NOT migration
• Seasonal Workers, Sojourners (international
  migrants seeking temp employment in other
  countries), Tourists, etc. are NOT migrants
• Mover (changes residence within a place like a
  county)
• All migrants are movers but not all movers are
  migrants

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Fuzzy Definitions

• 1) Transients hobos other wandering souls
• 2) Nomads pastoralists moving livestock
• 3) People whose residence is always changing are
  tough to characterize. Demographers generally
  ignore them with the argument that they represent
  a small fraction of the population.

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Clearer Definitions

• Internal Migration
• Out-migrant
• In-migrant
• International Migration
• Emigrant
• immigrant

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Internal vs. International Migrant is an
important distinction

• 1) Much more difficult to cross International
  borders
• 2) Consequently international migrants are
  generally much more motivated
• 3) International migrants much more likely to
  cross cultural, linguistic, and political
  boundaries also.
• U.N. Definition of Long Term Immigrant Anyone
  who crosses political boundary and stays for more
  than a year.

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Types of International Immigrants

• Legal Immigrants
• Illegal Immigrants (undocumented)
• Refugees
• Asylees

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Refugees

• U.N. Definition Any person who is outside his
  or her country and is unable or unwilling to
  return to that country because of persecution or
  a well-founded fear of persecution. Claims of
  persecution may be based on race, religion,
  nationality, membership in a particular social
  group, or public opinion.
• Question Can a Chinese Christian claim
  asylum/refugee status based on the One-Child
  policys violation of their religion?

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Asylum

• A geographic twist on refugee.
• An asylee is a refugee who is already in the
  country to which they are applying for admission,
  whereas a refugee is outside of the country they
  are trying to get into at the time of
  application
• Examples anyone?

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Legal, Illegal, Asylee, Refugee..Who cares?

• Migration is an activity carried out by people
  under varying legal and socio-political
  circumstances. If we have this much trouble
  DEFINING migration, you can be sure that it is
  hard to measure.
• Note Definitions DO matter which is why many
  migrants to U.S. and other places claim
  political asylum. Once in the country due
  process can take so long that they simply fade
  in to the country they claim asylum in.

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Measuring Migration

• NOT a piece of cake.
• 1) No biological component (births deaths are
  relatively easy compared to change of residence)
• Temporal Scale Problems
• Spatial Scale Problems
• What does permanent mean?
• What does residence mean?

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Actual Measurement Problems

• Most information about Migration in the U.S.,
  Mexico, and Canada comes from a question like
  Where were you living N years ago?
• (This repsresents a temporal scale problem
  right there)
• Factoids From 2000 Current Population Survey
• 1) 16 of U.S. population 1 year or older lived
  in a different house the year before.
• 2) 6 were Migrants (crossed county lines)
• 3) 0.6 were Immigrants from another country
• American Community Survey will make same
  measurements
• American Housing Survey will track residential
  mobility

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More Actual measurement Problems

• The INS tracks legal immigrants.
• The INS does not track emigrants
• Same story in Canada
• This is in contrast to most European countries
  that have a population register
• Most countries of the world have squat for
  measuring migration. Estimates you do see are
  based on surveys.

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Chinese Migration Measurement Problem

• 1) One child policy impacts federal revenue
  streams to Cantons (states)
• 2) Cantons with low rates of Natural Increase
  get more than those with high rates
• 3) Natural Increase measured simply by Total
  population at T2 minus Total Population at T1
• 4) All Cantons claimed significant (inflated)
  inmigration numbers.
• 5) Result 30 underestimate of total population
  of China.

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Imagine Understanding U.S. internal Migration at
the State level

• Each state sends some number of people to each of
  the other 49 states (this can be 0)
• Each state recieves some number of people from
  each of the other 49 states (This can be 0 too)
• At a minimum it would require a 50 x 50 matrix of
  numbers to describe inter-state migration in the
  U.S. for a given period of time.
• Thats 2500 numbers. How can someone Grok that?
  How could it be mapped?

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Migration Measurements

• Gross Rate of out-migration
• Gross Rate of in-migration
• Crude Net Migration Rate
• Total Migration Rate
• Migration Turnover Rate
• Migration Effectiveness
• Migration Ratio

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Gross Rate of Out-Migration

• This is simply a crude measure of how many people
  are leaving. It is not a net number so a
  country can be growing from migration even with a
  high Gross rate of out-migration.

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Gross Rate of In-Migration

• This a crude measure of influx of people. Like
  the crude rate of out-migration a country or
  region can have a high rate of in-migration and
  still be de-populating if the Crude rate of
  Out-Migration is higher.

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Crude Net Migration Rate (CNMR)

• This number is the way to measure population
  change of a country or region due to migration.
  However, it does not take into account the
  magnitude of migration. For example Given
  country X with population one million. 100,000
  out-migrants and 120,000 in-migrants will have
  same CNMR as 5,000 out-migrants and 25,000 in
  migrants.

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Total Migration Rate

• This number measures what fraction of the
  population is migrating. It does not tell you
  whether the population is growing or shrinking
  from migration.

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Migration Turnover Rate

• If you do the algebra this is simply
• In Out / In out
• It results in a number describing the ratio of
  total migrants to the net result or impact on the
  population of the region in question.

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Migration Effectiveness (E)

• This is simply the inverse of the Migration
  Turnover Rate. This number is essentially a
  percentage impact of migration on the total
  population of a country or region.

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Migration Ratio

• This is a way of measuring the contribution that
  migration makes to population growth.
• Question Juan Maria migrate to U.S. in 1992
  and subsequently have 3 children. Is their impact
  on the U.S. population 5 from migration or 2
  from migration and 3 from natural increase?

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Actual U.S. migration Numbers

• In 1990 (April 1) The census counted 248,709,873
  residents.
• Between April 1, 1990 and April 1, 2000 there
  were 39,865,670 births and 22,715,464 deaths
• Natural increase 39,865,670- 22,715,464
  14,150,206
• Estimated 2000 U.S. Pop (no migration)
• 248,709,873 14,150,206
  265,860,079
• Census 2000 Actually measured 281,421,906
• The difference 281,421,906 - 265,860,079
  15,561,827 is declared to be the result of
  immigration.
• The migration ratio is then 15,561,827 /
  14,150,206 x 1000 1099
• Which essentially says 50 of U.S. population
  growth is due to in-migration. But this is a
  deceptive number because of all of Juan and
  Marias children who were counted as natural
  increase.

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Next Up Why do people Migrate?

• Revensteins Laws
• Push Pull Theory
• Dual Labor Market Theory
• And much, much, more Fuuuuun.