The Human Population: Patterns, Processes, and Problematics Lecture

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The Human PopulationPatterns, Processes, and
ProblematicsLecture 2

• Paul Sutton
• psutton_at_du.edu
• Department of Geography
• University of Denver

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How many Humans have ever lived?

• In 1980 William Matthews claimed that there were
  more people alive on the planet than had lived
  and died on it. Could this be true? (In short
  NO)
• Nathan Keyfitz did the most systematic study. His
  conclusion 60 billion have been born. Todays 6
  billion represent about 10 of all humans born
  ever.
• How does one calculate this? Estimates of
  fertility, longevity, infant mortality, and their
  changes through time are necessary.
• It is interesting to note that we represent a
  much higher fraction of adults that have lived on
  the planet.

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Redistribution of Population through migration

• Historically humans have typically migrated from
  growing, densely populated areas to vacant or
  less densely populated areas.
• Example The European Expansion
• Today, Economic opportunities are a major driving
  force of human migration.
• Examples Mexican migration to United States
• and Rural to Urban migration globally

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Mapping some major global migrations
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The European Migration (1500-1950)
Although the continent was already crowded, the
death rate began To drop and the population
began to expand rapidly. Simultaneous Urbanization
, new occupations, financial panics, and
unrestrained Competition gave rise to status
instability on a scale never known Before. Many a
bruised or disappointed European was ready to
Seek his fortune abroad, particularly since the
new lands, tamed by The Pioneers, no longer
seemed wild and remote but rather like Paradises
where one could own land and start a new life.
The Invention of the steam ship (the first one
crossed the Atlantic in 1827) Made the decision
less irrevocable. Kingsley Davis
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Population Proportions before and after the
European Expansion

• - 18 of world pop European (90 of them in
  Europe)
• 1930s Peak of Euro Domination. 35 of World
  European
• 2000 - People of European ancestry are 16 of
  World pop
• By 2050 People of European ancestry will only
  be 11
• Pre WWII Developed countries had growing
  populations and
• out-migration
• After WWII Developing countries had growing
  populations
• and out-migration
• Population growth used to be a reward for doing
  well now its a scourge for doing badly
  Judith Blake

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The Urban Revolution

• For most of human history people lived rural
  areas
• In 1800 1 of world urban, 10 of England urban
• Trade and Industrialization caused urbanization
• Romes population of 650,000 in 100 a.d. unusual
• Today the world is just about 50 urban
• The United States is about 75 urban
• Some countries like Venezuela are 90 urban
• The world is still urbanizing and is expected to
  settle at about 75 urban eventually

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Geographic Distribution of World Population

• The worlds 10 most populous nations constitute
  59 of the worlds population and 37 of the
  worlds land area.
• China 1.3 Billion
• India 1.1 Billion
• United States 281 million (note
  books estimate of 275)
• Indonesia 219 million
• Brazil 174 million Note there are more
• Russia 146 million people in China than
• Pakistan 141 million in the U.S., Indonesia,
• Bangladesh 132 million Brazil, Russia, Pakistan
• Japan 126 million Bangladesh, Japan, and
• Nigeria 117 million Nigeria combined.
• China (and India to some extent) are the major
  demographic drivers on the planet. This is one of
  the reasons why you hear so much about China
  joining the WTO and Sino-US relations

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Three ways of Mapping the Global Population

• A Nighttime Satellite Image
• A Cartogram where Area of Nation Population
• 3) Choropleth Map (Color Total population
• What benefits and/or drawback do each map have?

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Nighttime Satellite Image of EarthProduced from
Defense Meteorological Satellite Program
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Cartogram of World Population
Why do people often think Africa is overpopulated?
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Choropleth Map of World Population
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This is a map of World Population density
How is this different than the other maps? Do you
like it better?
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Geographical Variation in Population Growth Rates
Global Growth Rate 2000 is 1.25 per year
(doubles in 55 years) Some countries growing
much faster most of the Middle East nations most
African nations, much of Latin America, and the
Indian subcontinent Some countries are growing
more slowly The United States, Brazil,
China, Australia, Canada, Chile, and Japan Some
countries are actually shrinking Much of Eastern
Europe, Spain, and Italy
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World map of national Population Growth Rates
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Regional Demographics North America IU.S. and
Canada 5 of World Population

• U.S. 281 million
• Canada 33 million
• Mexico 100 million
• In 1650 there were about 3 million
  Native Americans and 50,000 Europeans in what is
  now U.S. and Canada
• By 1850 Guns, Germs, and Steel had reduced Native
  American population to 250,000 and European
  numbers had grown to 25 million.

Population Density of North America today
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Regional Demographics United States

• Colonial America Really high fertility rates
  (8-9 children per woman in North, much lower in
  South)
• Most growth from natural increase. (immigration
  only about 3 of it)
• Migration not a major source of U.S. population
  growth until 1850
• Almost a population decline during depression
• Post WWII Baby Boom

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Regional DemographicsCanada

• Canada originally settled by the French
• Ceded to England in 1763
• History of French vs. English Rivalry
• French speaking Canadians (mostly in Quebec) Of
  total population 28 in 1931 24 in 1997
• Today Canadian fertility 1.6 children / woman
• Nonetheless population growing from immigration
• U.S. and Canada two of the most
  immigrant-friendly countries in the world

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Regional DemographicsMexico Central America

• Millions of people in Central America prior to
  Columbus (way more than in North America)
• Aztec and remnants of Mayan civilization quite
  sophisticated with agriculture and other
  cornerstones of complex civilization
• Colonized by Spanish with different goals take
  the gold and run away.
• Population decimated by disease
• Very high population growth since WWII due to
  dropping death rates

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Mexico Central America Today2 of Total
World Population

• Mexico 100 Million
• Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua,
  Costa Rica, Panama, Belize 35 Million
• TFR in Mexico around 6 from 1600 to 1970
• Drops to 3.5 by 1995
• 10 of Mexican citizens live in U.S. today.
• Any connections between those facts?

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Regional DemographicsSouth America

• South America 330 million
• About 5 of World Total
• (A little over half of them in Brazil)
• Brazil colonized by Portuguese 1/3 of slaves in
  slave trade ended up in Brazil. Today the people
  of Brazil are Half European ancestry, Half Native
  or African ancestry.
• TFR Brazil 6 in 1960 2.3 today (a dramatic
  demographic change)
• In general Greater European influence, greater
  economic development, lower TFR

Population density of South America
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Regional DemographicsEurope

• Europe 730 million
• Russia, Germany, United Kingdom, France, Italy
  (top 5)
• Western Europe growing slowly thanks to
  immigration
• Eastern Central Europe actually depopulating
• Catholic countries of Spain Italy with VERY low
  fertility rates.

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Regional DemographicsNorth Africa Western Asia

• Total Population of the Middle East and Maghreb
  350 million (6 world)
• Islam the predominant religion in the region
• A cluster of nation with unusually high
  population growth rates.

Population Density in the Middle East
North African Countries aka The Maghreb Algeria,
Libya, Morrocco, Mauritania, Tunisia
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Regional DemographicsSub-Saharan Africa

• Sub-Saharan Africa 650 million (11 world)
• 1, 2, 3 Nigeria, Ethiopia, Zaire
• Many of the most population challenged countries
  of the world are in Sub-Saharan Africa
• AIDS will not keep population from growing, will
  slow growth rate though
• 11 million Africans forcibly relocated to
  Western Hemisphere from Slave Trade from
  1600-1900
• Lower Death rates since WWII cause of population
  growth.
• Birth rates remain high throughout much of Africa

Population Density of Africa south of the Sahara
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Regional DemographicsEast Asia (China, Japan, N
S Korea)

• East Asia 1.5 Billion (25 of World
  Population)
• China 1.2 billion
• Japan 125 million
• 1850 1 in 3 living people were Chinese
• Today 1 in 4 living people are Chinese
• TFR in China today 1.9
• TFR in Japan today 1.5
• Ironically China is trying to get their TFR down
  to 1 whereas Japan would like to raise theirs to
  over 2

Population Density in Eastern China, Japan, and
Koreas
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Regional DemographicsSouth Southeast Asia

• S SE Asia 2 Billion (1/3 of World Population)
• India 1 Billion (expected to pass China in
  total pop size soon due to higher fertility rate)
• Fertility highly variable throughout India with
  notable low levels in Kerala and Tamil Nadu
• Pakistan Bangladesh Muslim whereas India
  primarily Hindu
• Indonesia is 4th most populous nation in the
  world (behind China, India, and United States)
  with 219 million (also the nation with largest
  Muslim population)

Population density of the Indian Sub-continent
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Regional Demographics Oceania

• Oceania is sometimes referred to as Overseas
  European
• Total Population 30 million
• Australia 20 million
• Papua-New Guinea
• and New Zealand
• Small populations scattered around on Islands.

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Next Time..

• Tomorrow we meet in Boettcher West 126
• Chapter 2 Demographic Resources
• What is a census? How is it conducted?
• What kinds of errors are there and how big are
  they?