IPCC From Observations to Nobel Peace Prize

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IPCC From Observations to Nobel Peace Prize
A Summary Assembled by Mr. Ron Birk, et
al. Northrop-Grumman Corp. Civil Space
Division October, 2007

• Mr. Rajendra Pachauri of India was elected
  Chairman of the IPCC in 2002. He succeeded Robert
  Watson of the UK (1997 - 2002) and Bert Bolin of
  Sweden (1988 - 1997). During his Chairmanship,
  Mr. Pachauri, regarded as an effective team
  builder, has emphasized the world-wide coverage
  and interdisciplinary nature of the IPCC work.

http//www.ipcc.ch/
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Timeline

• First Assessment Report in 1990
• UNFCCC adopted in 1992 and entered into force in
  1994
• Second Assessment Report in 1995
• Kyoto Protocol in 1997
• Third Assessment Report (TAR) 2001
• IPCC awarded Nobel Peace Prize in Oct 2007
• IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4) is coming out in
  Nov 2007

The Nobel Peace Prize goes to the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
and Albert Arnold (Al) Gore Jr. "for their
efforts to build up and disseminate greater
knowledge about man-made climate change, and to
lay the foundations for the measures that are
needed to counteract such change".
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IPCC Description

• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
  (IPCC) has been established by WMO and UNEP to
  assess scientific, technical and socio-economic
  information relevant for the understanding of
  climate change, its potential impacts, and
  options for adaptation and mitigation.
• IPCC is currently finalizing its Fourth
  Assessment Report "Climate Change 2007", also
  referred to as AR4.
• The reports by the three Working Groups provide a
  comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the
  current state of knowledge on climate change.
• The Synthesis Report integrates the information
  around six topic areas.

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IPCC 4AR Observations

• Since the TAR, new observations and related
  modelling of greenhouse gases, solar activity,
  land surface properties and some aspects of
  aerosols have led to improvements in the
  quantitative estimates of radiative forcing. p2
• Increasingly comprehensive observations are
  available for glaciers and snow cover since the
  1960s, and for sea level and ice sheets since
  about the past decade. However, data coverage
  remains limited in some regions. p5
• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as
  is now evident from observations of increases in
  global average air and ocean temperatures,
  widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising
  global average sea level. p5
• Some aspects of climate have not been observed to
  change. p9
• This assessment considers longer and improved
  records, an expanded range of observations and
  improvements in the simulation of many aspects of
  climate and its variability based on studies
  since the TAR. p10

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IPCC 4AR Observations

• A major advance of this assessment of climate
  change projections compared with the TAR is the
  large number of simulations available from a
  broader range of models. Taken together with
  additional information from observations, these
  provide a quantitative basis for estimating
  likelihoods for many aspects of future climate
  change. p10
• The new assessment of the likely ranges now
  relies on a larger number of climate models of
  increasing complexity and realism, as well as new
  information regarding the nature of feedbacks
  from the carbon cycle and constraints on climate
  response from observations. p13
• Dynamical processes related to ice flow not
  included in current models but suggested by
  recent observations could increase the
  vulnerability of the ice sheets to warming,
  increasing future sea level rise. p17

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IPCC Structure
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IPCC Working Groups and Task Force

• Working Group I assesses the scientific aspects
  of the climate system and climate change.
• Working Group II assesses the vulnerability of
  socio-economic and natural systems to climate
  change, negative and positive consequences of
  climate change, and options for adapting to it.
• Working Group III assesses options for limiting
  greenhouse gas emissions and otherwise mitigating
  climate change.
• The Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas
  Inventories is responsible for the IPCC National
  Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme.

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Observations of Change
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Global Past, Present, and Future?!
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Observing Sea Level Rise
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Increasing impacts of severe weather
Catastrophic weather-related losses increased
10-fold from 1950s
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Global Earth Observation System of Systems
(GEOSS) an International Approach