Peak oil

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Peak oil
Transition Training 2007
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Peak oil- What is it?

• Peak oil is the point at which we can no longer
  increase the amount of crude oil we extract and
  globally petroleum production goes into
  irreversible decline.
• This typically happens when an oil province has
  extracted roughly ½ of all the oil that is ever
  going to be extracted from that province - it is
  not when the oil runs out.
• This slide illustrates why the sum total of a
  collection of oil fields in a region when added
  together creates a peak at about the half way
  point in production

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Typical Oil Well
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Peak oil- What is it? How an oil well works

• Initially the oil is under pressure and when you
  drill into the oil bearing rock, the pressure
  drives the oil out of the stone and upwards to
  the surface.
• You can drill several wells into the same field,
  increasing output from that field
• After a time the pressure begins to fall so
  production falls. To get the last recoverable oil
  out water or gas is pumped into the field

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Two typical oil fields
Forties field UK sector North Sea
Prudhoe Bay, Alaska
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Peak oil- What is it? Oil field production

• These two large oil fields illustrate the basic
  dynamics of oil production
• A steep initial increase, a production plateau
  and then a slow but irreversible decline.
• Once the peak is past there are many techniques
  and technologies that can brought to maximise the
  declining output, but it is a losing battle and
  production will never return to it former levels.

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Oil discovery follows production
USA
Russia
Indonesia
Egypt
Transition Training 2007
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Peak oil What is it? Oil production follows
discovery

• Oil production peak follows oil discovery peak,
  usually 25-40 years later.
• This is the time it takes to get production going
  after the initial finding.
• In country after country and oil province after
  oil province the pattern is broadly the same
  four examples are shown of countries that have
  peaked.
• Globally we are now discovering 1 barrel of oil
  for every 5 or 6 that we use.

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UK production profile
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When will it happen? UK Oil production profile

• This is the pattern in the UK, showing oil
  production from the North Sea.
• Each coloured band shows a different oil field
• Britains production peaked in about 2000 and is
  now in steep decline.
• Britains oil and gas will be virtually gone in
  15 years.

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Global oil discovery and production
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When will it happen? Global oil discovery,
production, and demand

• To produce oil you first have to discover it.
  World discovery peaked in the late 1960s and has
  been falling ever since, and despite rapidly
  improving and sophisticated, technology, there
  is no prospect of it ever increasing.
• At the same time production has been rapidly
  rising.
• Demand is projected to go on rising, (with
  production failing to keep up), especially in
  rapidly industrialising countries like China and
  India, and is leading to rapidly rising oil
  prices.

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When is the global oil peak?
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When will it happen? When will global oil
production peak?

• The argument is when will we peak, not whether.
  This graph shows various predictions of the
  global oil peak. They cluster around 2010, with a
  few optimistic analysts, predicting a peak many
  years in the future.
• Dr James R. Schlesinger, former US Energy
  Secretarystated in 2007, You (peak oilists) are
  no longer the beleaguered small minority of
  voices crying in the wilderness. You are now main
  stream.
• The predictions are from government bodies like
  the International Energy Agency, oil companies
  like BP, and independent researchers like Chris
  Skrebowski.

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Post peak oil producers (64)
Oil producers (98)
www.lastoilshock.com
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When will it happen?Of the 98 producers 64
countries have already peaked

• There are 98 countries in the word that produce
  oil, some large some small.
• The countries in red are the countries that are
  now post peak.
• Their oil production is now in decline and
  nothing they can do will ever reverse that.
• Of 98 producers 64 have already peaked. Anyone
  who tries to tell you that peak oil is a myth
  should look at one of these countries- not one
  has ever failed to follow the Hubberts peak
  and then decline

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Exports from oil producers
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When will it happen? Exports from oil exporting
nations

• Oil exporting nations are using their oil for
  their own internal consumption at an ever
  increasing rate.
• Oil is often very cheap, like in Saudi Arabia,
  30p per gallon, so there is no incentive to
  conserve.
• As their economies are booming, and their
  population is also growing rapidly, this means
  they have less oil to export.
• Oil export peaked in 2005, and after a short
  plateau, is declining rapidly. This is very bad
  news for countries like the USA which need to
  import 16 million barrels of oil a day.

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8020 rule

• The worlds giant oilfields are in steep decline

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When will it happen?8020 rule decline of the
giant oil fields

• The 8020 rule is that 80 of your result comes
  from the first 20 of your effort with
  diminishing returns after that
• In oil terms we find the easy to find and produce
  oil first - the largest oil fields. 50 of global
  oil is produced by the 120 largest oil fields in
  the world (out of over 4000 fields)
• This graph shows that discovery of giant oil
  fields peaked in the late 1960s. Now we find
  very few giant (greater than 1 billion barrels)
  oil fields, and that rate of discovery is
  declining.

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WHERE WE GET OUR ENERGY
Source ExxonMobile web site
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Why is oil so important?
It is frightening how dependent we are on fossil
fuels. We have only begun the move away from
fossil fuel energy. Even if we were to double
the amount of energy we get from renewables, and
then double it, and then double again, which
would be a heroic achievement, it would still
only create 3 of energy requirements.
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If peak oil was imminent, what would be the
Canary in the Coal mine?

• Transition training 2008

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When will it happen?

• Light sweet crude peaks first.
• The worlds largest oil fields peak and decline
• Countries start to decline.
• Oil price increases rapidly, and then maybe
  crashes, erratic behaviour.
• Exports from oil producers peaks
• Oil producer countries take control of their
  resources.
• .......all this has happened, and has
  accelerated, in the last 5 years

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Why is oil so important? How many men does it
take to push a car?
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Why is it so important? The phenomenal energy in
petrol

• A tank of petrol contains 8,000 human hours work!
  
• If you worked for 8 hrs/day, 52 weeks a year, 7
  days a week that equates to about 3 years work.
• Most of us take for granted the amount of energy
  we have at our disposal instantly, everyday. No
  human society had anything near the amount of
  energy before the discovery of fossil fuels.

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What do we use oil for?
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Why is oil so important?What do we use oil for?

• Our entire way of life, and a bewildering array
  products are reliant on oil.
• Transport is only the beginning of our oil use.
• Many products are derived from, or use oil or gas
  as their raw material. Plastics, synthetic
  fibres, drugs, laminates, paints, ink the list
  is endless
• The so called Green revolution , modern
  agriculture depends on oil. Fertilisers and
  pesticides are made from oil and natural gas,
  tractors and machinery use it, irrigation
  requires huge amounts of energy and this is
  before food miles, processing, and storing,
  cooking, and packaging and retailing are taken
  into account.
• Industry and even the service sector use huge
  amounts of energy.

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No country has yet decoupled economic growth from
energy use
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Why is oil so important?

• Economic growth requires growth in our energy
  supply.
• We have an economic system that is dependent on
  growth.
• Therefore we are dependent on increasing supplies
  of energy.
• All forecasts of economic growth also show rising
  energy demand.
• When peak oil arrives we will have less total
  energy so economic growth will slow and probably
  decline, perhaps permanently

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The carbon cycle
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The active carbon cycle

• The carbon dioxide cycle is a natural one ,and
  one that has been in dynamic balance and
  undergone many fluctuations and cycles over
  millions of years.
• There is a balance between the seas and the land
  and the atmosphere. Carbon is locked up in the
  seas in plankton and other marine life, and
  dissolved in the water. Carbon is also locked up
  in plant matter on the earth (active carbon
  cycle), and in fossil deposits (inactive carbon
  cycle) of oil, natural gas, and coal.
• The destabilising factor in the carbon cycle is
  that we have taken the locked up (inactive)
  carbon from fossil fuels and put that carbon in
  the atmosphere. The land and the sea carbon sinks
  are unable to absorb this excess carbon.

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What is climate change?
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Define Climate Change The term "climate change"
is sometimes used to refer to all forms of
climatic inconsistency, but because the Earth's
climate is never static, the term is more
properly used to imply a significant change from
one climatic condition to another.
What is causing Climate change or Global
Warming? Rising human made CO2 concentrations in
the atmosphere.
It this a theory? Yes
Why? Because it is trying to establish two cause
and effects. Firstly that CO2 is the cause of
global warming and secondly that humans are
causing it through the burning of fossil fuels.
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Is it proven?
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• Have both cause and effects been proven? Is
  the earth warming, and are humans causing it?
• Main Point
• Yes, as much as a scientific theory can be
  proven. It It has been confirmed by the
  International Panel for Climate Change is a
  worldwide group of scientists who have reviewed
  all available scientific research.
• Detail
• The 4th IPCC report published in 2007 states,
• 1-Warming of the climate system is unequivocal.
  
• 2-Most of the observed increase in globally
  averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century
  is very likely (confidence level gt90) due to the
  observed increase in human greenhouse gas
  concentrations.
• This is scientific speak for yes!
• This United Nations study, which was just awarded
  the 2007 Nobel peace prize, was the most
  comprehensive study of peer reviewed climate
  research ever undertaken, and one of the most
  comprehensive studies of any scientific question
  ever. Its conclusions are that there is no more
  debate, the science is clear. The only question
  is how fast can we act to create real reductions
  in atmospheric CO2.

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What are the main problems with out of control
CC?
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What are the main problems with out of control CC?

• Main Points
• Severe one in a hundred year weather events
  becoming common
• Sea level rises, leading to increasing land loss
  and cc refugees
• Species loss
• Additional Points
• Increased droughts/desertification. This slide is
  of the Australian Murray River system, which has
  faced an extreme multi year drought. The
  government has had to take the decision to
  allocate whatever water there is to the cities
  rather than allow farmers to irrigate their
  crops. This has lead to a decrease in the
  Australian wheat harvest of 35 this year.
  Australia is one of the bread baskets of the
  world.
• Increased floods- like this year in the UK.
• Acidic seas
• Species loss due to temperature zones migrating _at_
  the rate of 2km/yr. This will accelerate species
  loss due to habitat loss, as many species of
  plants and animals will be unable to migrate with
  the temperature. We face a potential of 50 or
  more loss of life on earth. We are depended on
  the web of life for our survival.

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CO2 levels over the past 60000 years
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381 ppm 2006

• Ron Oxburgh

Transition Training 2007
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The natural carbon cycle and human effects

• Main points
• This shows the ice core data measuring
  atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the last
  60,000 years. As you can see CO2 levels have
  risen and fallen. To keep the climate from
  warming more than 2 degrees C we would have to
  keep CO2 concentration to below 450ppm
• They are currently at 380ppm without counting the
  other GHG which are Methane, nitrous oxide, CFCs.
• Additional Points
• The last ice age ended 20,000 years ago and lead
  to a rise in CO2, and if we went back a few
  100,000 years we would see this pattern of rise
  and fall. What happens next (in red) shows the
  result of a new agricultural system, and human
  population increase, and then the green shows the
  beginning of the industrial era and the burning
  of fossil fuels. The orange is the 20th 21st
  century.

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The need for an urgent response
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• The need for an urgent response
• Once global temperatures rise to certain levels
  positive feedback loops will cause further
  releases of greenhouse gases, leading to runaway
  climate change
• On the best evidence we need to keep temperature
  rises to less than 2 C.
• Emissions already made have not yet had their
  full impact so we are perilously close to
  reaching this even if we reduce emissions
  dramatically now.
• Positive Feedback loops
• For example if the arctic tundra melts it will
  emit so much methane, a powerful green house gas,
  that it will dwarf human CO2 emissions.

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Responses to Peak Oil Climate Change
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• PEAK OIL
• Burn everything!
• relaxed drilling regulations
• biofuels
• tar sands and non-conventional oils
• Resource nationalism
• Resource Wars

• CLIMATE CHANGE
• Climate engineering
• Carbon capture and storage
• International emissions trading
• Climate adaptation
• Nuclear power

• P O C C
• Systems Re-think
• Planned Relocalisation
• Energy Descent Pathways
• Local Resilience

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Response to PO and CC

• Looking at peak oil alone you look for
  replacements tar sands, remote fields such as
  the antarctic, bio fuels, coal to liquids.
• If we dont reduce oil dependency in rich
  countries there will inevitably be either climate
  disaster from replacements or resource wars.
• Looking at climate change alone you may look for
  energy intensive solutions to mitigate climate
  change, including nuclear.
• When PO and CC are taken together you have to
  redesign the system a low energy, re-localised
  and resilient system is the only viable future.