2004 Election Decline

1
2004 Election Decline?

• Mark Stephan
• Political Behavior
• PS 417

2
Last class and Todays Class

• Pattersons prescription for improvement
• Decline? Rosenstone and Hansen weigh in
• Decline? Norris view
• McDonald and Patterson on 2004
• Norris study

3
Decline in 2004? McDonalds take

• His basic argument?
• Why?
• Other comments?
• Margin of victory
• Abstentions
• Variation across states, battleground states
• Participation up again in 2008?

4
Decline in 2004? Pattersons view

• His basic argument?
• Why?
• Other comments?
• Primary turnout
• Interest level
• Voting for, voting against
• Reasons for not voting
• Remaining gap

5
News Flash!!

• Taiwan
• Jesse Jackson, the Schiavo case, and moral
  conservatism (versus process conservatism)
• Iraqs parliament
• Iranian presidential candidate?
• Anything else to mention?

6
Data sources and more..

• Similarities and differences between Norris book
  and R/H and F/Z
• Where does she get her data?
• Indexes
• http//www.freedomhouse.org/
• Human development how defined?
• Correlation to democratic development?