THE RISE OF THE NEW LEFT: WHAT?

1
THE RISE OF THE NEW LEFT WHAT?
2
READING

• Smith, Democracy, chs. 7, 12
• Modern Latin America, ch. 8 (Venezuela)

3
FINAL EXAM

• Wednesday, June 13 7-10 p.m. (sorry!)
• Cumulative entire quarter
• Study Guide next week

4
THE PULSE OF POLITICAL CHANGE

• The Nineties
• Elected governments
• Washington Consensus, free trade, and FTAs with
  U.S.
• Weak states
• Illiberal regimes
• Result timid democracies
• The New Century
• Popular disenchantment, especially over
  inequality
• Rejection of Washington Consensus
• Restoration of state role
• Inclusive politics (in part)
• Result the new left (aka pink tide)

5
RECENT TRENDSIN LATIN AMERICA

• Surge of leftist movements
• Left social justice, Right individual freedom
• Electoral victories, despite institutional
  obstacles
• Result democracy as a protective shield

6
9/11, THE WAR ON TERROR, AND RULES OF THE GAME

1. Nations can respond however they chooseincluding
   the use of indiscriminate force.
2. Preventive action is appropriate and acceptable.
3. There is no need to adhere to international
   treaties or conventions.
4. Alliances are formed around one central issuethe
   anti-terror campaign. Democracy and human rights
   are secondary issues.
5. Spectator nations must tread cautiously.

7
(No Transcript)
8
THE PINK TIDE ORIGINS

• Economiclack of growth (through 2003), poverty
  and inequality, frustration with Washington
  Consensus
• Politicalweakness of representative
  institutions, inattention to poor, persistence of
  corruption
• Internationalwar in Iraq, opposition to Bush
  policies and growing distaste for American
  society

9
THE PINK TIDE MEMBERSHIP

• Venezuela Hugo Chávez (1998, 2004, 2006)
• Brazil Lula (2002, 2006), Dilma Rousseff (2010)
• Argentina Néstor Kirchner and Cristina Fernández
  (2003, 2007, 2011)
• Bolivia Evo Morales (2005, 2009)
• Nicaragua Daniel Ortega (2006, 2011)
• Ecuador Rafael Correa (2006, 2010)
• Paraguay Fernando Lugo (2008)
• El Salvador Mauricio Funes (2009)
• Uruguay José Mújica (2009)
• Peru Ollanta Humala (2011)
• Near-Miss
• Mexico Andrés Manuel López Obrador (2006)

10
CLARIFICATIONS 1

• Differentiation right/center/left
• Contending leaders in/for Latin America
• Mexico (Vicente Fox, Felipe Calderón?)
• Brazil (Lula, Dilma Rousseff?)
• Venezuela (Hugo Chávez)

11
CLARIFICATIONS 2

• Disenchanted masses in Latin America ?
• Voters for pink tide candidates ?
• Leftist candidates for office ?
• Leftist winners of presidential elections ?
• Pro-Chávez chief executives ?
• Hugo Chávez
• Notes
• Tidal swell is spontaneous, not organized
• Rivalries and defections

12
THE PINK TIDE GOALS

• Domesticwinning power, rearranging electoral
  alignments overturning status quo, possibly
  through institutional reform changing policy
  direction
• Hemisphericgaining support throughout Latin
  America (invoking Bolivarian dream), reducing
  U.S. hegemony
• Globalchallenging international order, forging
  alliances with developing world and non-aligned
  nations

13
(No Transcript)
14
RISE OF HUGO CHÁVEZ

• 1989 Caracazo
• 1992 Failed military coup (amnesty 1994)
• 1998 Wins presidential election
• 1999 Installs new constitution
• 2002 Survives attempted coup
• 2004 Attains support in referendum
• 2006 Wins second presidential term
• 2007 Declines renewal of RCTV license
• 2007 Constitutional referendum fails
• 2008 Oil climbs to gt100 per barrel
• 2008 Referendum succeeds
• 2012 Campaign for re-election cancer treatment

15
GWB AND LATIN AMERICA

• Lack of high-level attention
• Abandonment of negotiations with Mexico for
  immigration reform
• Overriding concern with support for
  anti-terrorist campaign (not democracy)
• Politicization of drug war
• Awaiting Fidels demise
• Opposition to Chávez and the Pink Tide

16
THE PROBLEM WITH HUGO

• Uses language of the street (including the Arab
  street)e.g., the devil speech
• Sits atop petroleum (now gt100 per barrel)
• Puts money where his mouth is
• Breaks established rules of the game
• Plays off resentment of Bush, U.S. power
• Challenges Washington Consensus and FTAA
• Goes for high stakes
• Seeks rearrangement of prevailing world order

17
(No Transcript)
18
JORGE AND HUGO THE ODD COUPLE

• Georges gifts to Hugo
• discourse on democracy (e.g., Second Inaugural)
• caricature of ugly American
• unpopularity of foreign policies
• inattention to Latin America
• And Hugos reciprocation
• exaggerated rhetoric
• potential threats to neighboring countries
• authoritarian tendencies
• Q1 What does Hugo do without George?
• Q2 What about the price of oil?

19
CHALLENGING AMERICAN MYTHS

• The Cherished Assumptionfreely elected leaders
  will support U.S. policy
• The Western Hemisphere ideathe new world is
  distinct from old, will forge common front in
  international arena
• Democracy rationale for regime changefree
  elections as protective shield
• The hegemonic presumptionthe United States can
  dictate political life in Latin America