Voter Turnout

1
Voter Turnout

• POLS 125 Political Parties Elections

A citizen of America will cross the ocean to
fight for democracy, but won't cross the street
to vote in a national election. Bill Vaughan
2
The Vanishing Voter
Patterson calls declining voter turnout the
longest sustained downturn in American history.
What factors have caused it?

• Generational replacement
• Lack of competitive elections
• Weakening party loyalty
• Unsavory campaigns
• Negative news

3
This is all the more disturbing because turnout
should have increased

• Increasing educational attainment
• Removal of poll taxes and literacy tests
• Simplified registration procedures

4
Voter Turnout in 2008
In November 2008, 131 million votes were cast for
president.
Is that number high or low?
It depends on how turnout is measured
5
How Should We Measure Turnout?
Turnout statistics can use any of three
denominators

• The voting-age population (VAP) includes
  non-citizens and felons who are ineligible to
  vote, and excludes expatriate citizens who could
  legally vote overseas. VAP estimates provide the
  lowest turnout levels because they underestimate
  actual turnout.
• The voting-eligible population (VEP) starts with
  the voting-age population, then subtracts
  disenfranchised felons and non-citizens, and adds
  citizens from overseas. VEP estimates of voting
  turnout are higher than VAP estimates.
• The number of registered voters includes only
  those legally registered to vote. This provides
  the highest rate of voter turnout.

6
How Should We Measure Turnout?
131 million votes cast
VAP

57 voter turnout
231 million voting age citizens
131 million votes cast
VEP

62 voter turnout
213 million voting eligible citizens
131 million votes cast
REG

76 voter turnout
172 million registered voters
Fraud?
7
Turnout and the Census Bureau
The U.S. Census Bureau reports that 64 of U.S.
citizens voted in the 2004 presidential election
(up from 60 in 2000). Also according to the
Census Bureau, among those registered to vote,
89 (126 million) said they did.
Both figures come from the Current Population
Survey (CPS), and are therefore subject to both
sampling and non-sampling error. For instance,
the CPS estimate of overall turnout (125.7
million) differs from the official turnout, as
reported by the Clerk of the House (122.3
million). Why? Because people lie and
exaggerate in surveys, especially on something as
socially desirable as voting behavior
8
If voter turnout is low, compared to what?

• Compared to other countries
• Compared to historic rates of voter turnout in
  the United States

9
Voter Turnout in the United States Compared to
Other Countries
Source International IDEA, http//www.idea.int/vt
/survey/
10
Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections, 1828-2008
11
Why Americans Dont Vote
Legal barriers to voting

• Changing definitions of the eligible electorate
• Registration requirements
• Poll taxes
• Literacy tests

Psychological barriers to voting

• Rational abstention
• Political efficacy and civic duty

Political influences on turnout
12
(No Transcript)
13
Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections, 1828-2008
The 26th Amendment grants 18-20 year olds the
right to vote
The 19th Amendment grants women the right to vote
14
Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections, 1828-2008
15
How Should We Measure Turnout?
16
Increasing Voter Turnout

• OPTION 1 Do nothing. Once we use the
  appropriate measure (e.g., VEP), there is no
  problem.
• OPTION 2 Do nothing. Turnout may be low, but
  we dont want uneducated, uninformed people
  voting anyway.
• OPTION 3 Do nothing. Voter and non-voters have
  similar policy preferences, so it makes little
  difference
• OPTION 4 Do something!
• Voting by mail
• Voting early
• Internet voting
• Election day registration

17
Does Low Voter Turnout Matter?
Should we prefer a

• Smaller, more highly educated, less
  representative electorate?
• Larger, less well educated, more representative
  electorate?

18
Making It Too Easy to Vote?
Jeff Jacoby, a staff writer for the Boston Globe,
wrote the following essay in July,
1996 Universal suffrage? Im for that. Voting
is right, not a privilege? Absolutely. No
unreasonable barriers to voter registration? I
agree. Government workers should go out of their
way to sign up welfare recipients to vote? Hold
it. Welfare recipients are people who dont
work, dont pay taxes and dont support
themselves. Of course there are exceptions, but
as a grouplets face itthey are among the least
educated, least productive, least responsible
adults in America. Theyre also among the least
likely to be interested in elections or to follow
public debates. If in addition they dont bother
to vote, we ought to be grateful. Why would
anyone want to coax them into registering? No
one is disenfranchised in this country. Unlike
the days of old, there are no poll taxes,
literacy tests, gender barriers or property
requirements to come between any citizen and the
voting booth. If U.S. elections are marked by
chronically low turnout, it is not because voters
are kept away. They stay away. Some are
apathetic, some are ignorant, some are simply
self-centered. Why badger people to register?
What would they bring to an election? No welfare
caseworkerno state employee, periodshould have
to spoonfeed voting rights to anyone, least of
all people on the dole. If they can figure out
how to get food stamps, they can figure out how
to get registered. They choose not to? So be
it. American democracy wont suffer.
19
Increasing Voter Turnout

• OPTION 1 Do nothing. Once we use the
  appropriate measure (e.g., VEP), there is no
  problem.
• OPTION 2 Do nothing. Turnout may be low, but
  we dont want uneducated, uninformed people
  voting anyway.
• OPTION 3 Do nothing. Voter and non-voters have
  similar policy preferences, so it makes little
  difference
• OPTION 4 Do something!
• Voting by mail
• Voting early
• Internet voting
• Election day registration

20
Why Dont People Vote?

• Institutional context
• Motor-Voter
• Compulsory voting
• Election Day registration
• Voting by mail
• Internet voting
• Motivational strategies
• Personal canvassing
• Social pressure
• Enduring personal traits and
  psychological orientations
• Socialization through programs such as Kids
  Voting USA

21
How Does Motor-Voter Work?
Widely known as Motor-Voter, the National Voter
Registration Act of 1993 is designed to encourage
voter registration and to remove discriminatory
and unfair obstacles to voter registration. As
of January 1, 1995, the law requires states to
register voters for federal elections in three
specific ways, in addition to any other
procedures they use currently for registering
voters

• Simultaneous application for drivers license and
  voter registration
• Mail application for voter registration
• Application in person at certain government
  agencies, including public assistance offices and
  agencies that provided services to people with
  disabilities

22
The Problem with Motor-Voter
Voter Registration
Voter Turnout
Motivation and/or interest in politics
23
Increasing Voter Turnout

• Voting by Mail Some countries extend the
  opportunity to vote by mail to those who are not
  away from their election district. Canada, Spain,
  The United Kingdom, Germany, Finland, Iceland,
  and Denmark will all send ballots to any
  interested citizen. Use of voting by mail
  services varies widely almost 40 percent use it
  in Finland, only four percent in the United
  Kingdom. In 1998, Oregon passed a ballot
  initiative that replaced typical polling-place
  voting with a statewide vote by mail program.
  Other states including Colorado, Florida,
  Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New
  Mexico, North Dakota, and Washington State
  allow mail-in voting at one level or another.
• Voting Early Some countries increase turnout by
  extending the period of elections. In Sweden any
  voter may vote early at their local post office.
  In 2004, the state of Texas is experimenting with
  early voting polls in selected areas are open
  between seventeen days and four days prior to
  election day.
• Internet Voting Many people believe that
  internet voting will greatly increase voter
  participation. However, it might also offer
  greater ease of voting to wealthier households.
  Many countries are testing pilot projects. The
  state of California recently commissioned a study
  on the feasibility of internet voting. The panel,
  comprised of more than two dozen experts in the
  field of data security, elections and voter
  participation concluded that "the implementation
  of Internet voting would allow increased access
  to the voting process for millions of potential
  voters who do not regularly participate in our
  elections." But the commission also expressed
  serious concerns about "technological threats to
  the security, integrity and secrecy of Internet
  ballots" and did not recommend a wholesale move
  to Internet voting.
• Election Day Registration Election Day
  Registration (EDR), also known as "same-day voter
  registration," permits eligible citizens to
  register and vote on Election Day. In the 2000
  election, six states Idaho, Maine, Minnesota,
  New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Wyoming permitted
  voters to register and vote on Election Day.
  These states had considerably higher voter
  participation and registration rates than the
  national average 68 percent voter turnout for
  the EDR states as opposed to 59 percent
  nationwide. Critics contend that same-day
  registration will lead to greater voter fraud.

Source America Votes at pbs.org
lthttp//www.pbs.org/now/politics/votestats.htmlgt
24
Why Dont People Vote?

• Institutional context
• Motor-Voter
• Compulsory voting
• Election Day registration
• Voting by mail
• Internet voting
• Motivational strategies
• Personal canvassing
• Social pressure
• Enduring personal traits and
  psychological orientations
• Socialization through programs such as Kids
  Voting USA

25
http//www.podcastingnews.com/2008/10/22/personali
zed-video-paints-grim-future-for-non-voters/
26
Increasing Voter Turnout

• Voting by mail
• Voting early
• Internet voting
• Election day registration

27
Vote Mobilization
Efforts to increase voter turnout are often
called Get-Out-the-Vote drives, or GOTV.
28
Obama goes door-to-door in Iowa

DES MOINES, Iowa - Democrat knocked on doors in
the Iowa capital Saturday talking up his
opposition to the war in Iraq. At one stop,
Obama got a warm welcome from a woman who said
the visit might persuade her to attend the
Democratic presidential caucus in January, "I'm
flabbergasted that he's here knocking on my
neighborhood door," Jody Degard told reporters
after the visit from the Illinois senator.
29
(No Transcript)
30
Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections, 1828-2008
The 26th Amendment grants 18-20 year olds the
right to vote
The 19th Amendment grants women the right to vote
31
Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections, 1828-2008
32
How Should We Measure Turnout?
33
Voter Turnout as a Political Strategy
With narrow margins of victory, and an electorate
split evenly down the middle, political parties
increasingly battle over voter turnout.
34
Fraud vs. Suppression
The conflicting values of voter integrity and
voter access increasingly frame todays debates
about democracy. Often, measures that prevent
fraud in electionssuch as photo-ID
requirementsmake voting more difficult and
reduce access for legitimate voters. --Spencer
Overton
35
(No Transcript)
36
Vote Mobilization

• In recent years, political parties have neglected
  traditional get-out-the-vote efforts (e.g.,
  door-to-door canvassing) in favor of appeals to
  narrow and precise market segments.
• Still, in a recent experiment conducted by two
  Yale professors, voter turnout increased
  substantially (7-12) through personal
  canvassing, only slightly using direct mail, and
  not at all following e-mails and automated
  telephone calls.

37
GOTV Tactics

• In part, the Republican strategy in 2004 was
  based on mobilizing the 4 million Christian
  evangelicals that (according to Karl Rove) stayed
  home in 2000. Rather than appealing to moderate
  swing voters, Bush focused on increasing
  turnout from the partys conservative base.
• Effort also focused on key states. In Ohio alone,
  the GOPs grassroots campaign included 3.5
  million phone calls, knocking on 1.1 million
  doors, sending out 3.5 million pieces of
  literature, and the labor of 85,612 volunteers.

38
Add stuff about ACORN
39
Vote Suppression

• Ballot and machine shortages on Election Day in
  selected precincts.
• Delays in sending absentee ballots.
• Vote challenges.
• Disqualification of provisional ballots.
• Purges of voter registration lists (e.g., voter
  caging).
• Misdirection of voters to polling places.
• Negative advertising designed to undermine
  morale.

40
Vote Suppression
The following are some ways in which voter
turnout can be selectively suppressed to the
advantage of one party over the other

• Ballot and machine shortages on Election Day in
  selected precincts.
• Delays in sending absentee ballots.
• Vote challenges.
• Disqualification of provisional ballots.
• Purges of voter registration lists (e.g., voter
  caging).
• Misdirection of voters to polling places.
• Negative advertising designed to undermine
  morale.

Of the 1,509 incidents reported to the Election
Incident Reporting System (EIRS), 548 occurred in
Ohioa state Bush won by just over 100,000 votes.
41
Has Motor-Voter Increased Ballot Fraud?
Nashawna Prude, 9, with a family photo that
includes her grandmother, Kimberly, second from
left, jailed for more than a year for voter
fraud. Kimberly Prude was convicted of voting
while on probation, an offense that she
attributes to confusion over eligibility.
42
Has Motor-Voter Increased Ballot Fraud?
We spend quite a lot of time and money trying to
increasing voter turnout. Why not devote equal
effort to ensuring that election procedures and
eligibility requirements are upheld?

• "Operation Big Vote" in the St. Louis area was
  used by Democrats to register more
  African-American voters and get them to the
  voting booth on Election Day. They delivered
  3,800 voter registration cards to the St. Louis
  Elections Board on the February 7, 2001, nearly
  all of them fraudulent. Many of the applications
  sought to register prominent people, dead or
  alive - as well as at least three deceased
  aldermen and a dog.

But how do we know when weve go too far?

• In 2000, the state of Florida hired a private
  firm named ChoicePoint to cleanse its voter
  rolls of felons who were ineligible to vote. The
  company produced a list of 8,000 names to remove
  from the registration rolls, only to find later
  that none had committed felonies, only
  misdemeanors. Critics argued the process unfairly
  targeted African-American voters.

43
The Debate over Photo IDs
It's outrageous to hear my colleagues sit there
and say that the Republican Party is embarking on
a move to suppress the vote of ethnic minorities
throughout the country. That is blatantly false.
I am not going to sit here and by my silence give
any credence to that assertion. That's
ridiculous." Rep. John Doolittle (R-CA)