Thursday

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Thursdays ChildChinas Long March Toward
Military Transformation

• Information Age Metrics Working Group
• Evidence Based Research, Inc.
• February 18, 2005

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Chinas leaders have long recognized the need to
modernizeindeed, to transformPLA warfighting
capabilities, especially the ability to command
and to control more agile, better equipped forces
operating according to local wars under modern,
high tech conditions doctrine. The long march
to transform has not been an easy one, and has
been hobbled by distractions and debate. Finally,
for the past decade, the PLA seems to be getting
it about right, and the way ahead looks more
promising than many have expected.
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This Presentation

• Factors motivating transformation of the PLA
• Use of wargames, simulations
• Institutionalizing transformation The role of
  the research community as an agent for change
• Vignettes

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Background and Motivation for Change

• 1970s, modern war games in the West
• 1980s
• Falklands War
• Bekka Valley Campaign
• Operation Just Cause, Panama
• 1990s
• Desert Storm Wake up call for political leaders
• 1995-96 Taiwan Strait crisis
• Serbia/Kosovo
• 2000s
• OEF and OIF

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The Threat Debate

• Peoples War Scenarios
• Mobilize the population
• Retreat but slow the invader
• Multi-year war from the interior

• Peoples War Traditionalists
• Major power threat
• E.g., Russia, India, United States

• Local War Scenarios
• Use of rapid reaction forces
• Defend at border or frontier

• Power Projection Advocates
• Local wars on Chinas periphery
• E.g., Taiwan, Vietnam, Central Asian terrorists
• More modern and professional

• RMA Scenarios
• Preempt the superioranti access
• Asymmetric strategyASAT, info war
• Destroy C2, prevent entry of logistics
• Preemptive paralysis of the enemy

• RMA Enthusiasts
• No war for 10-20 years
• Time to develop leap-ahead capabilities and
  technology, develop new doctrine, tactics

See Michael Pillsburys China Debates the Future
Security Environment
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The Goal Shashoujian

• Simplistically interpreted as assassins mace
• Shashou (hitman), Jian (mace, club sword)
• Roots in antiquity (Tang Dynasty, 618-907 A.D.)
• Can be weapons and equipment and/or a combat
  method
• Think in terms of airland battle or shock and
  awe
• It is a way for the inferior to defeat the
  superior

See Jason Bruzdzinski, Chapter 10, Civil Military
Change In China
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Two Ironies

• Tsien Hsue-shen (Qian Xuesen)
• U.S. educated, helped found JPL, worked
  classified projects in WWII, expelled from U.S.
  prior to gaining citizenship, became father of
  Chinas missile program (and was instrumental in
  establishing PLA OR)
• Sino-American Seminar on Methodologies in Defense
  Systems Analysis, 1987 and 1988

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PLA Operations Research

• Models and simulations main approach to defense
  systems analysis
• Computerized simulations, ca. 1979-82
• Four approaches to war games
• Semi-empirical (Lanchester)
• Empirical (Dupuy)
• Monte Carlo (Johnson)
• Scientific/theoretical (von Neumann game theory)

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Chinese War Game Development

• Naval doctrinal evaluation model, 1983
• Cost/operational effectiveness of
• Air defense, 1983
• Ground artillery, 1985
• Anti-aircraft artillery, 1985
• Great Wall I, tactical model, independent action
  forces, 1985
• Yangtse River II, division war game, 1986
• Air defense battle simulation, 1987

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War Game Example

• Developed by OR section at AMS about 1986-87
• Division/regiment level
• Networked, PC-based
• Graphics, data base, Chinese character processing
• Met commanders requirements for training

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Start
Nuclear Attack Sub-Model
Initialize Data Weapon Index, Unit Combat
Index Environmental Data, Attrition Index
Coefficient Scenario Play Data
Chemical/Artillery Fire Sub-Model
Air-Ground/Ground-Air Sub-Model
Input Control Data
Land Combat Sub-Model
Display Initial Situation Initial Index Ratio of
Both Sides Initial Force Ratio of Both Sides
Display Battle Play Force Table Two-Sided Index
Attrition Rate
Manual Intervention Process
Command Control Sub-Model
No
Combat Ended?
Movement Sub-Model
Yes
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Battle Laboratories

• CPX simulations for training, C2 evaluation,
  event/mission synchronization
• Got idea from U.S.
• At least six battle labs have been stood up
• Other uses
• Logistics training, LOGEX
• Camouflage, concealment and deception technology,
  techniques

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Influence of Wang Shouyun

• Protégé of Qian Xuesen
• Wrote Modern War Game in 1982
• Leader of Chinese delegation, Sino-U.S. Seminar
  on Methodologies in Defense Systems Analysis,
  1987-88
• Secretary general of COSTIND, 1997
• Died in a mysterious accident in Dec. 1997

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Influence of T. N. Dupuy

• Numbers, Predictions and War published in 1977
  and read in PLA OR circles
• Lecture tours to China from 1987-1990
• Understanding War, 1987
• Sino-American seminars
• Mentioned in dispatches
• Well known to Wang Shouyun, COSTIND
• QJMA license to CDSTIC, 1988
• Multi-front model development, 1989-90

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Comprehensive National Power

• Chinese derived methodology
• Complex, many elements and indices
• AMS and CASS versions
• Helps to show
• Status hierarchy in world politics
• Power potential of rivals and partners
• Who will best exploit RMA
• Which side will win a war
• Also a rhetorical, political tool

See Michael Pillsburys China Debates the Future
Security Environment
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Acquisition Process

• Handout Comparison of PRC and U.S. acquisition
  stages/milestones
• Comments on other procurement activities
• Planning for visitors
• Acquiring information abroad
• CDSTIC and NTIS

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Institutionalizing Transformation

• State-level and PLA think tanks
• CDSTIC, AMS, NDU
• Academic research centers
• CAPS
• Semi-private think tanks
• Shanghai RimPac Center for Strategic and
  International Studies
• Have undergone major changes since late 1990s

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Vignettes

• Air defense system RDTE
• New, stovepipe research centers
• CAPS direct contract with PLA
• Radar displays
• Decision making is collective a shared
  responsibility trial balloons often used

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QA
Chuck Hawkins 410-643-8807 HERO_Library_at_msn.com