Jos ngel Rey

1
GLOBAL MARKET / MACROECONOMIC SITUATION57th
IREPAS MEETING
9 11th September 2007, Warsaw

• José Ángel Rey
• Celsa Spain Commercial Director
• CELSA GROUP

2
Table of Contents

• Celsa Group
• Macroeconomic Situation
• Steel Consumption Situation
• Long Products Market
• Rebars Market
• International Price Situation
• Outlook

3
Celsa Group


01
4
Celsa GroupCelsa owns mills all around Europe
and its total production has reached 9 Million
tons of long products
5
Macroeconomic situation


02
6
Macroeconomic situationGDP Evolution
(Percentage change on preceding year)
Source EUROPEAN COMMISSION Economic Forecasts
Spring 2007
7
Macroeconomic situationGDP Evolution
Source EUROPEAN COMMISSION Economic Forecasts
Spring 2007
8


03
Steel consumption situation
9
Steel consumption situationWorld finished steel
consumption
4,8
4,3
6,1
5,9
8,5
5,3
8,8
Source IISI Short Range Outlook, March 2007
10
Steel consumption situationWorld crude steel
production
2007 ACCUMULATED CRUDE STEEL PRODUCTION 8
GROWTH
Source IISI Statistical information.
11
Steel consumption situationCorrelationship
between steel consumption and GDP
Source IISI Short Range Outlook, March 2007
and EUROPEAN COMMISSION Economic Forecasts
Spring 2007
12
Steel consumption situationWorld finished steel
consumption per area
4
6
10
13
13
17
Source IISI Short Range Outlook, March 2007
13
Steel consumption situationChina Total growth
()
Source IISI Short Range Outlook, March 2007
and EUROPEAN COMMISSION Economic Forecasts
Spring 2007
14
Steel consumption situationChina Steel
consumption
Source IISI Short Range Outlook, March 2007
15
Steel consumption situationlndia Total growth
()
Source IISI Short Range Outlook, March 2007
and EUROPEAN COMMISSION Economic Forecasts
Spring 2007
16
Steel consumption situationlndia Steel
consumption
Source IISI Short Range Outlook, March 2007
17
Steel consumption situationSouth America Total
growth ()
Source IISI Short Range Outlook, March 2007
and EUROPEAN COMMISSION Economic Forecasts
Spring 2007
18
Steel consumption situationSouth America Steel
consumption
Source IISI Short Range Outlook, March 2007
19
Steel consumption situationRussia Total growth
()
Source IISI Short Range Outlook, March 2007
and EUROPEAN COMMISSION Economic Forecasts
Spring 2007
20
Steel consumption situationRussia Steel
consumption
Source IISI Short Range Outlook, March 2007
21


04
Long products market
22
Long products marketWorldwide long products
consumption evolution
283
Source Estimation
23
Long products marketWorld long products
consumption per area
Source Estimation
24
Long products marketWorld consumption evolution
per product
512 MT
456 MT
434 MT
394 MT
361 MT
335 MT
324 MT
314 MT
298 MT
303 MT
33,7
37,4
25,7
26,7
13,9
10,3
25,5
26,7
Source Estimation
25
Long products marketWorld sections vs. rebars
consumption
Source Estimation
26
Long products marketWorld consumption evolution
per capita
84
78
71
68
63
58
54
53
52
52
50
Source Estimation
27


05
Rebars market
28
Rebars marketWorld rebar consumption
224
217
212
189
29
Rebars marketWorld rebar consumption per area
224
217
212
189
167
149
137
133
121
111
107
102
102
95
91
91
87
82
Source Estimation
30
Rebars marketWorld rebar consumption per capita
2003 vs. 1st half 2007
Source Estimation
31
Rebars marketDistribution of consumption per
area over the years
1992
2006
2009
Source Estimation
32
Rebars marketWorld rebar consumption vs.
production in 1st half 2007
Source Estimation
33


06
International price situation
34
International price situationInternational
historical prices (FOB in /ton)
35
International price situationInternational
rebars market (CF in /ton)
Source IREPAS
36
International price situationInternational
rebars market (spread vs. rebars price in )
Source IREPAS
37
Outlook


07
38
OutlookShort term outlook

• Strong rebars demand all over the world, with the
  major exception of North America
• Specially in developing markets Only China,
  representing 40 of the worldwide rebars market,
  grew 10 in 1st half 2007
• Strong scrap prices and high energy transport
  costs inflation

CONCLUSION OF THIS SCENARIO Upwards price trend
and healthy marketplace situation in a world
growing market
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Thank you for your attention