THINKING LONG TERM: Confronting Global Climate Change

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THINKING LONG TERMConfronting Global Climate
Change

• Written by
• James J. MacKenzie
• Senior AssociateWorld Resources Institute

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A hostile climate (Ice Ages) made life difficult
for our ancestors
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Todays more favorable climate has supported the
growth of civilization
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Partly as a result of a favorable climate,
humanity has grown in numbers over time
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
Millions of people
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Year
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The world has grown dependent on inexpensive
fossil fuels
Source Global Energy Perspectives IIASA, WEC,
1998
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But the burning of fuels now threatens our well
being
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Burning fossil fuels leads to

• Environmental impacts during exploration and
  production
• Ozone, acid deposition, and local and
  trans-boundary air pollution from burning
• Emissions of greenhouse gases

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Global warming enhanced by emissions of man-made
gases
Source Climate Change, State of Knowledge,
OSTP, 1997
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Much is known with certainty about global warming

• Existence of natural greenhouse effect is
  established beyond doubt
• Concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are
  increasing
• The temperature of the earth is increasing. 1998
  the hottest in at least 1000 years.
• Sea levels are rising (4 to 10 inches over past
  100 years)
• Some GHGs will remain in the atmosphere for
  centuries

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CO2 contributed most to global warming over past
century
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CO2 is building up in the atmosphere
Source Climate Change, State of Knowledge,
OSTP, 1997
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Earths temperature continues to rise rapidly
Source Climate Change, State of Knowledge,
OSTP, 1997
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The polar ice cap is melting
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Earth is projected to grow warmer
Source Univ. of East Anglia, IPCC
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Extreme precipitation events are becoming more
common
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Uncertainties still persist

• Timing and regional impacts
• The effects of increased cloudiness
• Uncertain health and ecological impacts
• Possible surprises from unanticipated effects

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More impacts of global warmingcan be expected

• More health effects from the spread of tropical
  diseases, heat waves, and so-called natural
  disasters
• Loss of agricultural land in developing countries
• Disappearance of ecosystems that are unable to
  migrate

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The climate problem is a long-term problem and
will require thinking long term to solve
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Common sense goals to cope with the climate threat

• Reduce CO2 emissions, requiring world economy to
  become much more efficient
• Start a world-wide shift from fossil to
  non-fossil energy sources

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We can explore energy-climate futures through
what if scenarios ...
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Criteria for a strategy to keep CO2 levels
reasonably low

• A strategy should support sustainable growth in
  the world economy
• Improvements in global energy efficiency (E/GDP)
• A transition to non-fossil energy sources

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These criteria are met in the Ecologically
Driven Scenario fromGlobal Energy
Perspectivesby WEC and IIASA
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Scenario assumptions related to energy demand

• Growth rate in global energy demand of 0.8 over
  next century, doubling energy use by 2100
• Doubling of world population by 2100
• 10-fold increase in world economy over next
  century
• 1.3 annual improvement in energy efficiency. One
  would need only 20 as much energy to produce a
  dollar of GDP compared with today.

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Recent annual energy growth rates (1987-1996)
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Assumptions related to energy supply

• Global supply of new renewables (wind, PV, hydro)
  would increase to 50 by 2100
• Biofuels from trees, agricultural wastes,
  municipal wastes, and so on would account for 30
  of supply by 2100
• Nuclear would be phased out by 2100
• Coal, oil, and natural gas would fall to 18 of
  global supply from its present value of 80
• CO2 emissions would fall by 2/3 by 2100

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Energy supply The global transition to
non-fossil energy
Mtoe
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Photovoltaics (PV) produce power with no
emissions or moving parts
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The use of wind machines is growing rapidly
around the world
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Rapid growth required in the use of renewable
energy sources
Mtoe
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Rapid growth required in the use of renewable
energy sources

• Use of biofuels must increase sustainably to
  over 5 times its present value by 2100 (1.6
  growth per year)
• Hydro must increase to 3 times its present value
  by 2100 (1.2 growth per year)

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Rapid growth required in the use of renewable
energy sources

• PV and wind must grow to 45 of global supply by
  2100
• PV and wind must grow initially at about 12 per
  year, slowing to 6 by 2050, and then to about 2
  to 3 per year through the year 2100
• Global data show that electricity from PVs and
  wind has been growing at about 20 per year for
  the past 15 years.

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From the viewpoint of non-carbon energy sources,
the future looks promising.Global growth in
these two vital sources of renewable energy is
on track to meet the needs of a growing world
economy
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Resulting carbon dioxide emissions(1990 through
2100)
Mtc
Year
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CO2 concentration in an ecologically driven future
In this aggressive scenario, the CO2
concentration would peak at about 450 parts per
million (ppm) -- less than a doubling -- in the
last quarter of the 21st century, and then start
declining.
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National leaders should also

• Support research on renewable energy
  technologies and the infrastructure needs to
  phase them into the economy.
• Use government purchasing power to create
  markets, bring down prices, and get experience
  with the use of renewable energy technologies
  including hydrogen and fuel cells.

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In general terms, a thinking long term program
would have the following goals ...

• Develop a century-long energy and climate
  strategy to hold CO2 concentration below a
  doubling
• Improve global energy efficiency (reduce E/GDP)
  to hold energy growth to under 1
• Support rapid phasing in of non-fossil energy
  sources

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Specifically, national leaders should support
strategies to ...

• Reform energy prices to make them more closely
  reflect the costs they impose on society. At the
  same time, lower taxes on income, savings, and
  investment to offset higher energy prices.
• Such reforms encourage efficiency and make more
  economically attractive renewable energy
  technologies.

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In short, there are three areas for major
federal emphasis ...

• Reforming energy pricing to level the playing
  field
• Supporting basic research on new technologies,
  and
• Using federal purchasing to expand markets and
  reduce costs.

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Climate Web sites

• www.ipcc.ch/The Intergovernmental Panel on
  Climate Change
• www.usgcrp.gov/US Global Change Research
  Program
• globalchange.gov/Gateway to Global Change Data
• www.globalchange.org/Global Change, Electronic
  Edition

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Global energy Web sites

• www/iiasa.ac.at/cgi-bin/ecs/book_dyn/bookcnt.pvG
  lobal Energy Perspectives
• www.undp.org/seed/eap/United Nations
  Development Programme
• www.worldenergy.org/World Energy Council
• www.undp.org/seed/eap/activities/wea/ World
  Energy Assessment

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http//www.wri.org/wri/