Chapter 0: Science and the Principles of Clear Thinking

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Chapter 0 Science and the Principles of Clear
Thinking

• My goal - to give you example and practice in how
  science thinks and how we arrive at knowledge
  astronomy is just the setting.
• The text does give a little on the process of
  science and clear thinking, but not near enough
• I wrote my own Chapter 0 Its my own
  integration of things mental, psychological, and
  biological on why and how we gain knowledge.
  Perhaps itll stir some action in the room as we
  throw some icewater on snake-oil salesman and
  other foes of clear thinking

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The Nature of Thinking Clearly

• The most incomprehensible thing about the
  universe is, it is comprehensible Albert
  Einstein
• Really? (In context, he almost certainly didnt
  mean this literally, but instead as dramatic
  emphasis)
• Is it surprising that the Universe is
  comprehensible?

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The Brain and Mind are Products of Natural
Selection

• Natural Selection is Simple we are not all
  equal.
• Those better able to survive and thrive leave
  more descendents who, to some extent, genetically
  inherit this higher fitness, and therefore
  leave more offspring who inherit it as well.
• Thus, favorable traits tend to spread,
  unfavorable traits tend to die out.

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Each Species is Distinguished by Having a
Distinctive Edge

• So, What makes us, homo sapiens, good competitors
  for the resources necessary for life?

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Our Minds, of Course!

• The evidence says that minds are the perceptual
  manifestation and result of the chemistry of our
  physical BRAINS.
• Natural selection applied to humans means, we
  evolve better and better BRAINS!

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How do you Know when Youve Understood Something?

• What is the actual experience of understanding?
• What is / are the experiential cues that signal
  understanding?

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The Light Bulb Feeling!

• The light bulb feeling Too many of us did not
  have teachers or parents who pointed out how
  important it is to recognize it and to seek it.
• It is the gold standard for a genuine grasp of
  Reality its a biological response, correlated
  with brain chemistry and fMRI characteristic
  activity. Why did we evolve this experience?
• Your survival and welfare, especially 30,000
  years ago, depended critically on arriving at
  correct understanding about the World.
• The light bulb is as vital a bio signal as any
  other biological signal pain, pleasure, hunger,
  thirst, anxiety without genuine understanding,
  you will fail at the challenges of life.

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The Light bulb goes on

• when new understanding is integrated into
  previous understanding in a non-contradictory
  way.
• Reason the art of identifying truths and
  integrating them into a non-contradictory
  knowledge base.

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Getting to the Light Bulb

• Requires caring. Without caring, there is no
  learning. Why? Because making mental connections
  requires focus and hence mental effort.
• The brain has 2 of your mass, but uses 20 of
  your energy. Our organism will not spend energy
  without a good reason it is parsimonious.
  Energy requires food and that (for most of our
  evolution) wasnt so easy to acquire. Hence,
  CARING about learning is essential for it to
  happen.
• Curiosity - is natures built-in motivation to
  apply that mental effort. And the reward is the
  lightbulb feeling of understanding it feels
  good! As it should - its concrete expression of
  your power within your environment.
• If youre not curious, learning will be very,
  very tough for you. Re-connect with your native
  curiosity (otherwise, in todays competitive
  world youre doomed!)

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What, Actually, do you DO to Grasp
Understanding?

• You take all of the aspects of the issue to be
  grasped, and you focus on each of them, and hold
  them all in focus at the same time
• It feels a lot like juggling, as you pay
  attention to all the juggled things at once.
• This is your minds strategy for spotting
  contradictions. Hold two things in focus at the
  same time and if they contradict each other,
  youll get a certain mental experience. A
  sensation of clashing
• If they are in harmony, without contradiction
  theres a very different and more pleasing
  feeling that happens

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If you only focus on the one thing

• . Then you dont get the opportunity to find the
  logic or illogic of its connection with the rest
  of your assumptions or knowledge
• This juggling must be learned by constant
  practice, till it becomes an automated habit.
• Key you must motivate yourself towards a desire
  for clarity.
• As a habit, it takes much less mental energy to
  happen. We call those who master this more
  intelligent. But its really just that theyve
  practiced to the point of automation, so most of
  their energy is freed for other challenges.

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Focusing on just one thought in isolation,
without attempting to integrate it into what you
already know

• leaves you vulnerable to blind acceptance based
  on someone elses authority.
• Question Authority, really means, hold
  simultaneously in your mind the authoritys
  contentions and also the rest of your knowledge,
  with the open willingness to see and discover
  contradictions if they are there. Being willing
  to experience the dissonance that comes from
  discovering inconsistencies, contradictions, and
  perhaps the clay feet of your chosen authority
  figures.
• Many people are unwilling to do so they may,
  for example, instead motivated more powerfully by
  fear of aloneness, rather than love of Truth and
  contact with Reality.

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Our Mind and Senses Its ALL Weve Got. Its
all ANYones Got!

• There IS no alternative to using your mind to
  discover where truth is. Think about it - How
  could there be?
• If there IS any reasonable alternative, Id love
  to hear it. I can find none.
• Trust a Guru? But theyre just human beings too.
  They must reach their convictions by use of the
  same human capabilities we all have.
• And its your mind (hopefully) that decides which
  competing Guru to follow, so there you go!
• Gurus, if they truly respect YOU, will encourage
  your sovereignity, encourage healthy use of your
  mind, skepticism, and experience of genuine
  understanding. Sadly, we have seen there are
  plenty of motivations for false gurus to try and
  turn you in exactly the opposite direction - do
  you seriously believe THEY have a secret pipeline
  to Perfect Truth that bypasses the mind and
  senses? Very dangerous to your future to hand
  over your Self in this way!
• What is their evidence that it is the Divine
  talking to them, and not simply themselves
  talking to themselves a hallucination, or
  wishful thinking? Extraordinary claims
  rightfully demand extraordinary evidence, after
  all.

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The Authoritarian Mindset

• Rote memorization of undigested factoids. Gah!
• No light bulb?, then no understanding!
• Dont let yourself be brow-beaten into accepting
  the undigestable by authorities. Ask what
  reasoning, what evidence, makes you say so?
• An integrated mind of ideas that fit, vs. a
  jumble of disconnected and unusable factoids.
  Thats using, or not using, the Light Bulb
  experience.
• You get a sharp feeling of dissonance when
  confronted with something that makes no sense,
• But!... ONLY if you have an integrated mind all
  of a piece to start with! Thats a vital fact
  often unappreciated.

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There isonly ONEREALITY

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Reality That Which Exists!Reality is that
which, when you stop believing in it, doesnt go
away Phillip K. Dick, author of Blade Runner

• Everything that is valid will fit together
  without contradiction, by logical necessity...
• Why? Because the alternative is - your brain
  doesnt work! In which case nothing you say can
  be trusted, including the claim theres more than
  ONE Reality
• This is very important - Claiming multiple
  Realities is self-contradictory!
• We all have unique experiences and perhaps
  non-overlapping conclusions. We all have our own
  PACOR (a useful word Ive just coined
• PACOR Perception and Conception of Reality)
• This obvious truth does not violate the
  usefulness of the notion of an objective external
  Reality which is the ground forming the basis of
  our individual PACORs
• The goal of mental activity is to get your PACOR
  to be in as close and harmonious a relationship
  with the one true REALITY as possible. Only then
  can you hope to think and act with effectiveness
  in supporting your own life and happiness, and
  those you care about.

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But Rick! Im a Free, Independent Human Being,
and I Have the Right To Believe Exactly What I
Want!

• Mother Nature says. Do you think so?
• Obviously, only you will decide what you believe,
  but there are consequences to clinging to
  beliefs which go against the verdict of evidence
  and the Light Bulb in your own mind
• Even if, in todays modern world, your very
  physical survival might not at stake in quite the
  same way as in paleolithic times, there are still
  consequences

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1 - Anxiety

• Anxiety is your organisms signal that you are
  not in optimal contact with Reality. Could be
  either the outer World, or the inner World, or
  both.
• We have the power, through habitual muscle
  tension, to block awareness of things we do not
  want to be aware of, including the awareness that
  we hold contradictions as beliefs, for reasons we
  dare not look at.
• You can see it in the suddenly stiff Deer in the
  headlights look you get from someone when you
  attempt to reason with one of their un-examined
  beliefs that theyve self-identified with.
• Contrast that with the exhilarating exchange you
  might instead get if you challenge a scientist on
  a conclusion, and a lively uncovering of
  differing evidence and reasonings proceeds,
  leading to at least one, and maybe both, learning
  some valuable things. Maybe even, approaching
  closer to the truth.

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Not just Anxiety but also

• lessened self-trust in your ability to think.
• the level of your life ambitions changes for
  the worse
• a certain defensiveness in having intellectual
  conversations at all.
• changes in your choice of friends. Rather than
  being stimulated by choosing to be around those
  who can inspire you to a higher level, you find
  yourself more comfortable around those to whom
  you can compare yourself favorably.
• and many others

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How Much Does Mother Nature Care About My Opinion?
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She Doesnt

• Mother Nature doesnt care about my opinion! Nor
  anyone elses.
• She cares about only one thing
• What is TRUE
• It is WE who must learn and conform to Mother
  Nature, not the other way around!
• Its up to us to use our Mother Nature-given
  abilities to discover What is TRUE as best we can
  accomplish, accepting the responsibility that we
  can make mistakes.

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One of the Most Meaningful Movie Scenes, for Me
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In a crowded theater in L.A. in 1981, seeing the
premier of Raiders of the Lost Ark

• In one scene (was it in the snake pit?) Marion
  complains But Indy, you said. and he responds
  in a resounding voice
• Well I was WRONG!
• Id never heard such an admission made so
  undefensively, so naturally, so completely
  without apology, and complete willingness to
  accept the new situation.
• THAT made an impact on me!
• Its OK to make mistakes! We WILL make them! I
  and you and we all have and will. Learn from them
  and move on, with exhileration! Being unwilling
  to accept the responsibility for thought leaves
  you vulerable to those who want power over you,
  for whatever reason.
• And then you suffer THEIR mistakes, a much less
  exhilerating experience!

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A Strange Notion

• that it is somehow rude to challenge someones
  beliefs
• Yet Mother Nature challenges your beliefs at
  every moment.
• Disbelieve in the law of gravity and try to float
  off a tall building and Nature will be very rude
  to you!
• A spirited inquiry into Truth is not rude, its a
  delight. But only when both sides have Truth as
  their real goal.
• A good life will only be fully realized when you
  align yourself with what is true.
• Dont wait for someone else to do it, you should
  be the FIRST to challenge your beliefs. Dont
  worry, you might actually already be right.

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So. Do you want the red pill, or the blue pill?
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• "You take the blue pill", Morpheus says, "and the
  story ends. You wake up in your bed and you
  believe whatever you want to believe. You take
  the red pill - you stay in wonderland and I show
  you how deep the rabbit hole goes. Remember, All
  I am offering is the truth. Nothing more."
• Take the Red Pill. It leads to a life thats fun
  and exciting, and successful in ways that count

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PseudoScience

• When people use the trappings and jargon of
  science to lend an aura of credibility and
  high-mindedness to an otherwise bogus body of
  thought, we call this a pseudo-science
• Tarot cards, pyramid power, past lives,
  homeopathy, astrology, divining, the list is
  almost endless!
• Theres one born every minute! P.T. Barnum

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Astrology

• Astrology is an excellent place for us to pause
  and apply some science to an astronomically
  related and popular subject. It will illuminate
  some key ideas
• A 2008 Harris poll found 31 of Americans believe
  in Astrology, and another 18 are not sure
• Yet, belief has nothing to do with it! Astrology
  is testable and therefore within the reach of
  science to make a verdict on.
• Its been tested many times it fails!
  Miserably! How interesting that so few astrology
  fans have any interest in this telltale fact!
  Psychology, rather than a desire to know, seems
  to be whats going on.
• Consider MacArthur Award winner Dr. Shawn
  Carlsons test of Astrology, with the help of
  astrologers, back at UCLA in the mid 80s

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• 28 astrologers selected by their peers as the
  best astrologers, and 116 real people
• For each client's chart, astrologers were
  provided three anonymous personality profiles -
  one from the client and two others chosen at
  random - and asked to choose the one that best
  matched the natal chart. All personality profles
  came from real people and were compiled using
  questionnaires known as the California
  Personality Inventory (CPI). The CPI, a widely
  used and scientifically accepted personality
  test, measures traits like aggressiveness,
  dominance, and femininity, etc, from a long
  series of multiple-choice questions the person
  themselves fills out.
• Graph showing percentage correct vs. Weight for
  astrologers' first-place choices in CPI-profile
  natal-chart matching The best linear fit of the
  data is consistent, within standard error, with
  the predicted line of zero slope. No significant
  tendency is shown for the astrologers to be more
  correct when they rate a CPI as highly matching a
  natal chart. In fact, if anything they were LESS
  correct.

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• The study strenuously attempted to avoid
  anti-astrology bias by making sure astrologers
  were familiar with the CPI and by incorporating
  many of the astrologers' suggestions. At the same
  time, to prevent testers from inadvertently
  helping astrologers during the test, the project
  was designed as a double-blind study where
  neither astrologers nor testers knew any of the
  answers to experimental questions.
• Despite astrologers' expectations, Carlson found
  those in the study could correctly match only one
  of every three natal charts with the proper
  personality profile - the very proportion
  predicted by random chance.
• In addition, astrologers in the study fell far
  short of their own prediction that they would
  correctly match one of every two natal charts
  provided. Even when astrologers expressed strong
  confidence in a particular match, they were no
  more likely to be correct, Carlson found.

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• Weight how confident the astrologers were
  that their guess of which person/chart matched
  was correct. High weight high confidence

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Astrologers participated strongly in the design
and execution of the experiment, but their
reaction to the results? Rude!

• "The astrologists' reactions so far have been
  pretty much what I expected," Carlson told the
  SKEPTICAL INQUIRER. "The astrologists whom I
  didn't test are saying that the test was not fair
  because I did not test them. Of course, if I had
  tested them instead, and they had failed, then
  the astrologers I actually tested would now be
  saying that the test was not fair because I did
  not test them.
• "I attended an NCGR party - I was the only
  non-astrologer in the house - to discuss the
  research shortly after it was published. The
  discussion was, to put it politely, energetic. I
  have not yet received a serious scientific
  challenge to the paper." The newsletter of the
  American Federation of Astrologers Network
  published a response in January (1986). "I was
  very disappointed to see that it largely consists
  of personal attacks," Carlson said. He said its
  few substantive criticisms are attributable to
  ignorance of his experiment, of the CPI, and of
  basic scientific methodology.

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If Youre an Astrology Believer

• and have the gumption to really look..
• then heres a page on the science and evidence
  on astrology
• Key take away point if there is no correlation
  (and no anti-correlation), then there is NO
  EVIDENCE of any cause/effect between planets and
  personalities. There is therefore NOTHING to
  EXPLAIN.
• Feel no need to find amazing, subtle,
  undiscovered mechanisms by which planets could
  affect personality. The time to do that, is only
  if there is EVIDENCE showing anything other than
  zero correlation.
• Dont be taken off guard by the claim
  correlation is not causation. This misses the
  point entirely. The point is without
  correlation (or anti-correlation) then there is
  POSITIVE EVIDENCE AGAINST any causation.
• In other words - correlation is a bare minimum
  for causation to even be a possibility. So,
  correlation does not PROVE causation true
  enough. But lack of correlation IS evidence
  against any causation.

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Natural vs. Supernatural

• If the mind works, then theres ONE Reality.
  Reality being that which actually exists.
• The idea of the supernatural provides no
  explanatory power. Its giving up on a
  non-contradictory explanation. Lets have no
  quitters!
• If we cant explain it, we work harder till we
  can. History has proven the success of this work
  ethic.
• Supernatural is a claim that no natural
  explanation is ever possible, and thats plain
  arrogant. And its a statement that your brain
  doesnt work. If your brain doesnt work, then
  you can make no positive statement about the
  Supernatural. Its self contradiction to make any
  claim at all.
• Dont be intimidated What can be asserted
  without evidence can be rejected without
  evidence (C. Hitchens)

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Science is Asking Nature Herself What is True

• Were all scientists at least some of the time.
• Clear thinking is a skill and a habit and its
  exciting and fun too.
• It feels so good to let go of all those filters
  to knowing, filters having to do with your
  feelings or your fears, or anything except
• What Is The Truth?
• Now, how you emotionally respond to the truth is
  also an important question. But its a very
  different one and it should be asked at a
  different time. Not when youre trying to figure
  out WHAT the truth IS.

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Dogmatic Thinking

• Defining yourself by clinging to an idea of
  unknown validity is a guaranteed path to anxiety.
• Cling instead to this idea I will define myself
  as someone who abides by whatever the truth is,
  and then you are free free to change your mind
  as the facts change. Free of anxious worry
  someone will prove you and your very soul to be
  wrong.
• If an idea you held is wrong, you can let go
  easily because you never let it DEFINE you in the
  first place!
• Pause and appreciate the power of that statement!
• For more, see my essay On Teaching, also linked
  on my home page.

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Respect Your Own Mind

• What is the evidence? Does this follow from
  reason? Does this conflict with other
  observations or knowledge I hold? from asking
  and answering these questions regularly comes
  self confidence in the workings of your mind.
• Unfortunately, putting other considerations
  first(do I want to believe this? Will this make
  me unpopular? Does this force me to confront
  things I dont want to confront?) . is the path
  to towards a mind learning to distrust itself.
  Anxiety, depression and worse. Cultivate a
  proper Method, a proper Orientation to Reality,
  if you want good self respect. Always and
  everywhere, consciously remind yourself that
  Truth is priority 1, until it becomes automatic
  habit.
• Its OK to acknowledge I dont know. Be clear
  on what you have understood, what you know to be
  false, and what is still not understood by you.
  Dont be so quick to grasp at a false
  explanation. Being able to firmly put an idea
  into the category more thought, investigation
  needed to decide Truth for this one, is a
  necessary and wonderful thing.
• Since genuine understanding takes effort, takes
  careful investigation, takes perhaps advances in
  technology it takes time, takes patience!

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Being Awake and Aware is a Good thing!
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Rodin Thinker
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3 primary modes of representing reality in
internal experience

• Visual (pictures, movies)
• Auditory (sounds)
• Kinesthetic (a visceral sensation using your
  proprioceptive system)
• Practice all three. Ponder the best mode for the
  job at hand. Dont accept the popular notion that
  you are hopelessly hooked on some one mode.

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What Science is, and Is Not

• First dont confuse science with individuals
  who are job classified as scientists! Corporate
  Science can, unfortunately, often look like an
  oxymoron. See here
• Heres a link to a good examination of popular
  stereotypes of scientists
• Science Its not nerdy factoids, or geeks in
  white lab coats

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or big equations
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or Hollywood stereotypes
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or Evil Doers
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Theyre regular, fun, and, good people! Like my
astronomer friend Stephane (Queens University,
Canada)
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or this geneticist, whos a Harvard professor,
and a rock star with an award from Billboard
magazine
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• Or Dava Newman
• MIT Prof. of Astronautics

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Or These guys er, wait those are actors
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Physicist Tom Haine - Johns Hopkins University
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Or Cara Santa Maria nationally known science
writer, with a Graduate degree in Neuroscience
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The Scientific Method The most efficient way
weve found to get the Light Bulb experience of
genuine understanding

• Observations generate questions how does X?
• Come up with, any way you can, a hypothesis a
  logical mechanism explaining how
• Meditate on the hypothesis, to see ways it could
  be tested If X is true, then we ought to see Y
  go look for Y. Logical, observable
  consequences of your hypothesis
• Test and test again. Ask Nature herself if your
  hypthesis is valid. If it fails even once, then
  youve RULED it OUT. Time to find a new
  hypothesis.
• If it passes every test put to it, a hypothesis
  graduates to the status of a THEORY

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A Theory

• Needs to be taken seriously as a contender for
  Truth
• Its not a guess, its not an arm-chair
  speculation, its already passed every
  reality-based test weve put it through. So its
  got to be on the short list of contenders for
  final Truth
• The popular press confuses the term theory with
  hypothesis, as in its JUST a theory. Wrong!
  (and really irritating!)

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Occams Razor

• Given two or more ideas, all of which are
  consistent with current observations, the one
  which is simplest (least conflicts with current
  knowledge) is most likely to be true
• Its an efficient guide to finding decent
  hypotheses
• Note most likely Nature isnt obliged to
  obey your notions of simplicity. But its still
  been shown by experience to be the best bet for
  allocating scarce resources of scientific time
  and money

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Sagans Corollary

• Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary
  Evidence Carl Sagan

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Bayes Theorem

• In order to assign a weight of evidence
  quantitatively in a scientific investigation - a
  probability for a conclusion to be correct, given
  certain evidence, Bayes Theorem is central.
• Bayes Theorem relates the probabilities of
  conclusions given the probabilities of prior
  building blocks within the hypothesis, and vice
  versa.
• Its beyond the scope of this non-mathematical
  course to go further, but the theorem was first
  worked out by Thomas Bayes in 1763 (and
  independently by the great French mathematician
  Laplace a few years later).
• With the advent of capable computers in the
  second half of the 20th century, it is now widely
  used in all of science, including astronomy.
• Proper use can give surprising results Example
  suppose a drug test gives 99 valid positive
  results for drug users, and 99 valid negative
  results for non-drug users. Suppose further than
  0.5 of people are in fact drug users. So, assume
  a randomly selected person is tested and tests
  positive. What are the odds that he is in fact a
  drug user?

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Youre thinking the answer is roughly 99, right?

• The correct answer is 33.5
• Surprised? Teased?
• If you like math, read here about the details of
  Bayesian Statistics.

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From On Teaching

• Please read my online essay On Teaching, which
  says more about my philosophy of teaching, and
  also about proper teaching of science. Well take
  a quick look now
• BIAS. What is BIASED teaching?

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Unbiased Accurately Aligned with the Weight of
Evidence

• BIASED teaching in science, is teaching which
  fails to present the actual weight of evidence
  for/against an idea. Whether by intent or by
  failure to prepare.
• Unbiased does NOT mean you give equal
  credibility to all ideas or all proponents of
  ideas in a given area!
• Classic modern example Is global warming caused
  by human actions or not? Science-ignorant press,
  and poorly educated teachers may give you both
  sides as if theres a genuine scientific debate.
  the truth is, the scientific debate was settled
  nearly 20 years ago WE are causing global
  warming! The other side (2 of climate science
  workers) is largely funded by Big Oil. See The
  Politics and Science of Climate

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A quote from Carl Sagans The Demon Haunted
World

• If we can't think for ourselves, if we're
  unwilling to question authority, then we're just
  putty in the hands of those in power. But if the
  citizens are educated and form their own
  judgments, then those in power work for us. In
  every country, we should be teaching our children
  the scientific method and the reasons for a Bill
  of Rights. With it comes a certain decency,
  humility and community spirit. In the
  demon-haunted world that we inhabit , this may
  be all that stands between us and the enveloping
  darkness." Carl Sagan

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My Own Thoughts

• Most of the scientists I know and have worked
  with are spiritual people. But they see
  spirituality in a deeper sense than the
  conventional. A connection with the Universe that
  has mystery, grandeur, profound respect for the
  human person and for a World that is subtle, but
  not malicious (Einstein).
• While I, like most scientists, am not religious
  in any Biblical or conventional sense, I do have
  respect for spirituality, and especially the
  wisdoms of some Eastern philosophies. Zen,
  Taoism, have found ways of connecting
  spirituality with the fundamental, biological
  imperative for deep, primal, focused awareness.
  This, I am convinced, identifies a profound
  truth about being human.

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Martian canals seeing what you want to see?
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The Face on Mars The Brain is a
Pattern-Making Organ. Dont let Flim-Flam Artists
use this Against You
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Face on Mars by Martian Orbiter
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At your Leisure, take a look at a Real Scientific
Paper

• Heres a cool one, on a high resolution search
  for planets around binary stars.

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The Universe Revealed by Science IS magical

• But Astrology and other bogus nonsense? Cmon
  its time to let go. Lets evolve
• You want to go slack-jawed with awe? Ponder
  quantum mechanics, study modern cosmology, the
  Multi-Verse
• Science is much MORE magical because it is Nature
  herself talking to us, not make-believe. When you
  see a great, inspiring film, isnt it much more
  inspiring if you learn it is a true story?
• And the best reason science is just plain FUN.
• So toss dogmatism, learn to be humble (dont
  dictate to Nature what she is and is not), and to
  re-assume the responsibility of independent
  thought.
• Get comfortable with a certain amount of
  uncertainty, and give respect to the weight of
  evidence,
• Be open minded
• But

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