Missouri Natural Resources Conference

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Missouri Natural Resources Conference February 6,
2009 Paul Nelson, Forest Ecologist Mark Twain
National Forest
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9 F
1,000 years
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Grasslands will overtake eastern
forests National Geographic News, August 6, 2008
Loblolly pine might march toward Missouri with
the change. Joplin Globe, Sept 20, 2008
Prairie, Woodland and Glades will expand
Conclusions Tim Nigh, 2008 MNRC
I am skeptical about the Ozarks succumbing to
grasslands and savanna. Lewis Iverson, Leading
Ecologist on Climate Change for US Forest Service
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Will Missouri's Natural Communities Migrate
Thru Climate Change?
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NATIVE AMERICANS ARRIVE 12,000 YEARS AGO
EUROPEAN SETTLEMENT COMMENCES 250 YEARS AGO
NATURAL RESOURCE EXPLOITATION 1850-1930
CONSERVATION OF RESOURCES COMMENCES
HOMOGENIZATION PROCESS BEGINS 1900s AND CONTINUES
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The Resource
Missouri's Presettlement Natural Communities
What are the historic reference natural
communities?
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Complex molecular interactions of associated
plants and animals adapted to ancient soils and
natural processes
Remaining highest quality natural communities are
directly correlated with the least disturbed,
most intact soil profiles
Historic disturbance processes and topography
influenced their structure, patterns and
composition.
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Historic Vegetation of Missouri Source
University of Missouri, Geographic Resources
Center Dr. James Harlan
Early 1800s
Savanna
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86 natural communities
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Mean yearly fire intervals
1650 -1850
Guyette and Stambaugh 2008
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10-12 year interval
6 - 8 year interval
2 - 4 year interval
Guyette and Stambaugh 2008
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Cahokia Mounds near St. Louis from A.D 1100 to
1200
High as 90 million in Americas in 1492
Subhumid midwestern climate will not support
prairie, savanna and woodland without the
influence of Native Americans broadcasting fire
over North America past 5,000 years Abrams and
Nowacki 2008
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Missouris Presettlement Land Cover 44 million
acres
Native American
Glade
Wetland
Bottomland Forest
Prairie
Upland Forest
Savanna
Woodland
Fire-Adapted Communities
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Coefficient of Conservatism Measure of plants
response to modern day environmental impacts
0 bad
cholesterol count-measure of plant community
health
10 excellent
Ladd 1985
Wilhelm and Swink 1977
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Missouris Biodiversity Species Profile

• 2,862 Vascular Plants

• 167 Breeding Birds

• 67 Mammals
• 82 Reptiles
• 62 Amphibians
• 201 Fishes
• 128 Butterflies
• 87,000 Invertebrates

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1,968 native
894

• 2,862 Vascular Plants

Exotic
vascular plant species
1140 species
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Conservatism Value from 0 to 10
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Exotic species- Kudzu 0
31 total plant species
House under here
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1 - 3
White heath aster 0 tall goldenrod 1 Johnson
grass 0 Late boneset 1
Most of our present-day landscape weedy natives
able to easily disperse across abandoned fields,
roadsides and empty lots.
These weed assemblages contain neither the
biodiversity nor the adaptive ability to coalesce
into self replicating, sustainable ecosystems.
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Degraded woodlands, glades, prairies, savannas,
fens, forests
4 - 6 Mean Coefficient
With management, can coalesce into sustainable
natural communities
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• Intact ancient soil profile remains
• Subject to less historic overgrazing pressure
• Landscape fires still prevalent

7 to 10
Restricted to original natural community slow
growing, long-lived and rather immobile perennial
plant species on present landscape
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Vital signs for healthy historic natural
communities

• 200-400 vascular plant species of which 50 have
  mean coefficient higher than 5

• Intact ancient soil profile with compliment of
  microbes, invertebrates and soil
  structure/chemistry

• Few if any exotic species
• Connectivity to other rich natural communities
• hundreds to thousands of acres in size intact
  watersheds

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Threat The Homogenization Transformation
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Biotic Homogenization BH
The ultimate outcome of the assimilation of
sensitive and localized (endemic) native species
by widespread exotic or weedy native species
thereby increasing the compositional similarity.
Homogenocene Era
Planet of Weeds
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Modern Day BH Contributing Factors

• Invasive species increasing becoming pervasive

• Degraded ecosystems lose species richness due to
  loss of natural processes and increasing woody
  growth

• Fragmentation continues to expand due to
  agriculture, roads.

• Human population increasing-urban expansion, more
  roads, increasing CO2, mercury, streams and
  rivers not meeting water quality standards

• Native animal populations out of balance Deer
  overbrowsing, ineffective predation/control,
  impacts on biodiversity-especially locally rich
  preserves.

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1620
PRESENT
William B. Greeley's, The Relation of Geography
to Timber Supply, Economic Geography
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(No Transcript)
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Harvested Cropland as of county
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Urban Change in St. Louis Missouri Resource
Assessment Partnership
1999
1972
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Population expansion and resource consumption is
impacting historic biological systems with a
magnitude and rapidity unprecedented in the
history of the continents biota.
Add 1 billion people every 13 years
2009
Conservative elements of native systems are
decimated time and time again until their local
extirpation occurs
Wikipedia collaboration 2008
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(No Transcript)
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Biotic simplification of 62 upland forest stands
in Wisconsin Rooney 2003
If we ignore keystone effects of ungulates.
..risk loosing species and processes to maintain
ecosystem function
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Some 40 invasive exotic plants threaten
ecological diversity
Elimination groundcover Little or no tree
regeneration
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Genetic memory of ancient ecosystems do not
readily adapt to abruptly different management
styles or land use changes
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Gradation of opinion management styles vary

• Philosophical or Professional differences in
• Whether to burn or not
• Singular species preference
• Experimentation with exotic introductions
• Emphasis on or changing mission objectives
• Budget constraints
• Misconceptions and other bias
• Lack of knowledge or experience

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Acreage Historic Natural Communities to Present
Day
Fully over 70 of all Missouri ecosystems are
destroyed
Much of what remains is severely damaged,
dysfunctional and or threatened
Few Missouri Landscapes, including Natural Areas,
have high quality natural communities approaching
their historical condition
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Missouris Presettlement Land Cover 44 million
acres
Present Day Restorable Natural Communities
Glade
Wetland
24 native cover
39 exotic pasture
Bottomland Forest
Prairie
Upland Forest
23 cropland
Savanna
12 overgrazed woodland
75 Destroyed
Woodland
2 urban/roads
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Percent Distribution Conservative Plant Value
Cover for Missouri
10
9
8
7
6
0
5
Exotics Crops
4
1
3
2
Conservatism Values from 0 to 10
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Percent Distribution Conservative Plant Value
Cover for Missouri
10
9
8
7
6
0
5
Exotics Crops
4
70
1
3
2
WEEDS
Conservatism Values from 0 to 10
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Myths and Misconceptions
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(No Transcript)
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Missouri Climate Scenarios Annual Avg Temp for
Year 2100
Year 2100
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Missouri Bootheel, Northern Arkansas
Central Arkansas
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Central and Southern Arkansas
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Central Louisiana
Southern Arkansas, Northern Louisiana
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Pat Guinan, Extension Climatologist, UMC
A2 850 ppm CO2, 7F avg temp
increase
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Ozark Highlands Vegetation History from Pollen
(Delcourts)
Prairie
Open Woodland
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USDA Forest Service Climate Change Tree Model for
Shortleaf Pine
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USDA Forest Service Climate Change Tree Model for
Shortleaf Pine
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1594
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Most former savannas covered in exotic cool
season grasses
Post oak trees do not migrate lack of
regeneration in allelopathic sea of fescue
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Dr. Ronald Amundson, Professor of Ecological
Services, University of California
Rare Soils of the United States Rare Plants and
Animals evolved with Ancient Soils
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Less than 1 of Illinois and Iowa total acreage
is in remnant native landscape Swink Wilhelm
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Myth or Fact?
Prairies, pine woodlands, post oak savannas
overtake Eastern Forests?
DONT COUNT ON IT

• Shortleaf pine regeneration and migration needs
  broadcast fire
• Urban sprawl, roads and croplands barriers
• Exotic grasses occupy eroded soils
• Woodland grazing widespread
• Conservative plants cannot migrate nor occupy
  degraded soils

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Myth or Fact?
Natural communities migrate or succeed within a
few decades
Vegetation succession is a misleading concept
because the loss of species richness occurs in
one community type and is generally unable to
accrue species associated with the new community
type in a fragmented landscape. Example Degraded
woodlands have succeeded to forests.
In our contemporary fragmented landscapes,
conservative native elements have neither refuge,
effective migration routes, nor the time to adapt
or move. Swink and Wilhelm 1994
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PRAIRIE STATE PARK
SECTION 17
REGAL PRAIRIE NATURAL AREA
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Vegetation Monitoring past 15 years, Prairie
State Park
894
Regal
4.5
3.9
2.9
Mean coefficient
Sec 17
Vegetation data collected 6 years
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Landscape fires no longer grow and propagate
freely
These fires stimulated massive seed production
and facilitated species dispersal over an
uninterrupted tapestry of rich plant life and
ancient soils
Without fire, conservative plants are essentially
incapable of migrating or moving elsewhere due to
their isolation, lack of fire and little
production of viable seed.
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Glades
Require Landscape Fire Matrix Corridor for
Migration
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Adult Male Dispersal
Dr. Alan R. Templeton, Washington University
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The case of Collared Lizards in the Missouri
Ozarks using Prescribed Fires
All Dispersal
Fire creates the migration corridor
Dr. Alan R. Templeton, Washington University
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Myth or Fact?
Degraded ecosystems readily recover species
richness without management
Studies and observations presently suggest
conservative plant species associated with former
fire-adapted natural communities steadily decline
and many eventually disappear
Rooney-University Wisconsin Native population
extinctions outpace non-native colonizations..Aver
age site of 62 forests lost 19 of original
native flora
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Glade species, particularly animals, would likely
need fire-mediated corridors from which to
recolonize and migrate
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What part of the landscape would provide
extensive shallow-soil, rocky substrates suitable
for glade species migration?
Weedy Road Cuts or Quarries
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Myth Busters

• Over 75 of Missouris historic ancient soil
  and its associated high quality natural
  communities are destroyed

• What remains, especially fire-dependent and
  wetland remnants, continue degrading.

• Glades, Savannas and Prairies have no place to
  go to north of Interstate 70

• Some landscapes contain enough relict
  conservative plants among degraded natural
  communities that they are well worth restoring.

• Absolute hands-off management will reduce
  species richness for landscapes once dominated by
  woodlands, savannas, prairies and glades.

• Components of Natural Communities will move
  about, but diverse natural communities will
  likely not reassemble elsewhere

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Conclusion Do not expect ecosystems to
migrate across Missouri
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What should we do?

• Consider biodiversity in the context of
  historic reference conditions for natural
  communities

• Learn how Biotic Homogenization affects
  biodiversity

• Place Climate Change in perspective with other
  threats

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Agencies and partners need to commit to the goal
of conserving distinctive elements of Missouris
biodiversity
Identify areas that still contain restorable
assemblages of conservative plants (and animals)
associated with distinctive natural communities
Restore natural communities on large landscapes
by setting desired conditions for them, then
emulating critical disturbance processes
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Thanks to the following

• Dr. Allison Vaughn, Natural Resource Steward,
  DNR
• Dr. Alan Templeton, University of Washington
• Dr. Gerould Wilhelm, Botanist, Conservation
  Design Forum
• Mr. Doug Ladd, The Nature Conservancy
• Dr. Ronald Amundson, University of California

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Whoa, The HOMOGENOCENE ERA is here.
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Presented by
Paul W. Nelson
Forest Ecologist
Mark Twain National Forest
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End