Nuclear Proliferation

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Nuclear Proliferation

• and the Middle East

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• The only two Middle East countries containing all
  three of the key resources required to be a
  regional power - oil, large population, and water
  - are the two most consistently demonized (put
  down, attacked) by the US which is the primary
  global power operating in the area.
• Iran and Iraq

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• These two countries remain locked in contention
  for future regional hegemony and nuclear weapons
  could prove useful to them in this regard.

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• Military collaboration between Pakistan and Iran
  is longstanding, and Tehran would be a likely
  customer for Islamabad if (and this is a very big
  if) a decision were made to sell nuclear
  weapons technology or equipment.

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• In Iraq the emergence of two new nuclear states
  close by may well spark a popular and/or
  government-orchestrated call for nuclear renewal
  in an Iraq devastated by the sanctions and angry
  at the Permanent Five members of the UN Security
  Council - not coincidentally the same countries
  as the Nuke Five.

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• In the run-up to the 1995 diplomatic conference
  on extending the NPT, Egypt joined India, Mexico,
  South Africa and other countries to challenge the
  Nuke Five. But quickly Egypt's president
  overruled the foreign ministry's efforts, and
  Egypt ultimately signed the NPT as a non-nuclear
  signatory.

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• The danger now is that public opinion in Egypt
  could begin to shift, to demand that the
  government renew its long-abandoned nuclear
  program. With a collapsed economy, massive
  unemployment, growing discontent, and a growing
  Islamist insurgency, Cairo could ill afford to
  simply ignore this kind of political pressure.

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• Elsewhere in the Arab world, even in the oil
  wealthy and usually quiescent Gulf states, anger
  is growing at the latest version of the nuclear
  powers' double standards the willingness to
  overlook Israel's powerful nuclear arsenal, while
  imposing harsh and unforgiving sanctions on other
  Middle Eastern countries' efforts to catch up.

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• there is currently only one Middle Eastern
  nuclear power
• Israel.
• 15-year-old nuclear capacity ...
  semi-acknowledged
• "strategic ambiguity" creating a nuclear arsenal
  but with the fiction (unchallenged by the West)
  that "Israel will not be the first to introduce
  nuclear weapons in the region."

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• In 1981 Israel attacked and destroyed Iraqs
  fledging nuclear weapons program.
• In 1986 Israels nuclear weapons program was
  revealed.
• 200 weapons, 6th largest in the world
• but Israel has never been challenged or punished
  for its nuclear weapons program

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• Especially alarming to Israels Islamic
  neighbours is the growing relationship between
  the right wing extremist government of India,
  which tested their bomb, and the government of
  Israel.
• Both see themselves as being "surrounded by
  Muslims.

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• The concern now is that Israel may feel the need
  to increase its arsenal and that given the
  countrys international clout, especially in the
  US, Washington and its allies may turn a blind
  eye to the escalation.

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• This in turn would further infuriate the Arab
  states in the region and lead to unchecked
  proliferation in the region.
• This why the leaders of the US and the West
  attach so much importance to securing a realistic
  and permanent peace between the Palestinians and
  Israel.